During the Mets' 2007 season, two of SNY.tv's Mets writers -- analyst Michael Salfino and blogger Ted Berg -- will get together to chat about all the issues facing the team. They kicked off their first Mets chat on Sunday night during the Mets' first game of the season against the Cardinals in St. Louis.
Mike: March roared in like a lion and went out like a lamb in Mets land. All the talk about dramatically shuffling the lineup by elevating David Wright into the two-hole and having a true open competition in right field proved to be just that - talk. Joe Morgan: "The reason the Mets were so good offensively last year was Jose Valentin." Huh? I think Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Delgado had more to do with it. The TV guys are always saying something, you have to give them that.
Ted: It's true -- very few broadcasters realize the value of dramatic silence. But let's not downplay Valentin's offensive achievements last season. Obviously the guy was nothing like the big bats closer to the top of the lineup, but he did hit 18 home runs. I think his season has been widely overrated, but it was a lot more than any of us expected out of him or whoever would have been playing second if he didn't step up. Do I think he'll repeat that performance this season? Not a chance, unfortunately.
Mike: So Taguchi looked like a Little Leaguer going back on that Delgado flyball to open the scoring for the year. But Taguchi looks like a little-leaguer, period. See, here we are with the bases loaded for LoDuca after a clear pitch-around of Reyes and the Mets didn't bat Wright second because the No. 2 spot isn't an RBI spot. I'd rather give my best hitters more at bats. But, of course, I'd want to play my best hitters before that, which the Mets aren't doing in right field, Green's two cheapo singles notwithstanding.
Ted: Ugh. Please don't remind me of So Taguchi. The only things that hurt me worse than his playoff heroics last year were the series of horrifying puns that the local papers trotted out the next day. So My Goodness! I couldn't agree more on the lineup scenario, and my foot is firmly planted in my mouth after that Lo Duca single. Tom Glavine's looking real good; I think in all the talk of how the Mets pitching staff is in trouble, many have forgotten how solid -- if unspectacular -- Lefty has been for the past three seasons. He's the perfect fit for the Mets potent offense, and he should rack up wins this year if he stays healthy -- which he always has -- and the Mets hit for him. What were you saying about So Taguchi looking like a Little Leaguer?
Mike: Gammons is spot on in saying that Martinez doesn't need to throw 90 MPH when he comes back. Last year, Pedro had trouble reaching the high 90s, yet had the third most effective fastball among big-league starters (.543 average PLUS slugging against it). I bet Willie wishes he still had Bradford to bring in right now to pitch to Rolen to thwart a Cards rally. He warms up the rookie righty sidearmer (and pedestrian sounding) Joe Smith, but ignores him in favor of the tiring Glavine. After a hit batsman, Glavine faces another righty, Molina (batting fifth!). It worked out, ultimately, but the uncertainty in the pen is a surprising and upsetting development.
Ted: Call me a cock-eyed optimist, but I have a feeling the bullpen will work out better than we expect. Smith looked good enough in Spring Training that I'm sure with a little luck he can succeed in the Bradford role -- maybe not as well as Bradford, but serviceable at worst. Feliciano was great last year and looked great tonight. I think it all hinges on Aaron Heilman. He stepped it up when Duaner Sanchez got hurt last year, and he'll have to do the same this season. He's made it perfectly clear that he doesn't want to be pitching in relief, but I'm sure he's smart enough to know that the best way to improve the odds of that happening is to dominate in relief. I think maybe we've all been spoiled by the Mets' bullpen depth last year, because the current crop of arms still looks better than what most teams in the league bring to late-inning situations.
Mike: I don't think Randolph and Minaya are on the same page on some key issues. But that can be a really good thing. Disagreement breeds debate which tends to keep an organization on its toes. After hearing Minaya speak last week, I sense he definitely would have used Smith there. I think it's pretty clear Willie wanted Wright to bat second and Omar didn't. Willie wanted Burgos and not Park and won that round over Omar. But I hope all of this and things like it will be constantly examined. This is going to be much tougher road for the Mets in the NL East in '07. I wonder if there's anyone disagreeing on Milledge vs. Green, who's seemingly bought himself all of April tonight.
Ted: Too true. I haven't heard much from either Willie or Omar about the Milledge-Green situation, other than both of them saying that Milledge has improved on the field and off and that Green is still the starter. I suppose Omar sort of has to play this one close to the vest: If he admits that Milledge looks better than Green, he looks foolish for picking up Green and his contract. If he's too vocal in his faith in Green, Milledge's trading stock decreases. Still, you'd think both men would realize that they'd be best served by trying to win as many games as possible, and the way to do that is with Milledge -- a better fielder, hitter and baserunner than Green. Now, Green gets a couple of lucky hits and the braintrust has the excuse it needs to keep trotting him out there, even if it's hurting the team.
Mike: I don't like the constant chatter about how the Mets can trade Milledge for a pitcher. What pitcher? It better be someone who is a sure thing to be better than Perez and Pelfrey and I don't think many guys like that will come on the market. Green looks shot and Moises Alou is 40. Milledge is not even 22 yet and charging. I'm more concerned about Pelfrey than Perez, as he hasn't missed enough bats all year and is looking like a one-plus-pitch guy. I just saw an article on thousands of various projection simulations that concluded the Mets have a 42.8 percent chance to win the East (the Phillies are the favorite). Vegas disagrees. So do I. But I'll make a projection of own. The Mets are 50/50 to win the East and 60/40 if Pedro comes back with a high-80s fastball by August 1. You're the closer tonight, Ted. Take us home.
Ted: If I'm the closer, I don't want to be pitching if this is a non-save situation. That said, I'm going to go with the optimistic stance on Pelfrey, as well. Sure, he didn't strike out many guys in the spring, but he's young and he's learning. He K'd more than a batter per inning in the Minors last year, and he yielded a lot of groundballs this spring. I think as he gains a little confidence and familiarity with the league, he'll be able to mix his pitches a little better and start missing more bats, as you say. As for the Phillies, yes, they look good. But they're the Phillies. They'll find a way to lose.