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Sometimes, of course, the sky really is falling when it appears to be. Is what's infecting the Mets currently likely to linger long-term? And what of the competition, as the Mets playoff life is ultimately determined only by the relative health of their NL East adversaries?

The Mets net-OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) now is down to plus-.72. That again, factors the baserunners and bases gained by the offense and subtracts it from what is allowed by the pitching/defense. That's down considerably from its peak, but still multiple times better than the net-OPS of the Braves and Marlins. The Phillies? They're still in negative net-OPS territory after the predictably calamitous weekend in Kansas City, of all places.

With more parity this year than in seasons past, a plus-.72 net-OPS puts you on a 98-win pace (assuming wins and net-OPS perfectly correlated). That's still really good and as close to a mortal lock for winning the NL East as you can have.

And you don't have to buy into net-OPS to come to this conclusion. There are a couple of sites that continually forecast the odds of making the playoffs based on core performance and won-loss record and the Mets are currently given an 86 percent chance on the best of them, coolstandings.com. Their chance of winning the East is currently assessed at 79 percent. And, as net-OPS predicts, the Marlins are viewed as the bigger threat (five percent) than the Phillies (four percent).

The Braves have about a 12-percent chance of winning the division right now, a number also reflected in the current Vegas odds. Of course, Mets fans are justified in their fear of the Braves, conditioned over the decade and a half they stood atop the division.

This year, Atlanta's pitching/defense is average. Their offense is about equal to the Mets across the board except in average with runners in scoring position, where they hit .274 to the Mets .249. Here, the Braves are third best in the league behind the Cubs and Giants, the Mets fifth worst (ahead of the Reds, Nationals, Brewers and Diamondbacks).

The players who've led the charge for the Braves most of those years, John Smoltz and Chipper Jones, are both nursing injuries that can loom large the balance of the season. Smoltz's shoulder woes are more straightforward, but his prognosis is uncertain given that he's pushing 40 and still thrives on a devastating assortment of power pitches. Jones has complained of sharp pain in both wrists, but no underlying cause has been found as he begins to rehab for his expected return to action this week. Without Smoltz and Jones in top form, the Braves chance to win the East goes down to about zero, barring a complete collapse by the Mets.

Also note that Brian McCann has been forced to get a cortisone shot for his injured ankle and has not been the hitter all year that he was in 2006. If McCann finds that form, Kelly Johnson keeps his as one of the game's best offensive second basemen and leadoff hitters and Jones continues to mash as he did prior to being disabled, the Braves will be an offensive force. We didn't even mention Andruw Jones, hitting .220 with isolated power about .100 points off of recent levels.

Now let's examine the primary complaints regarding the Mets heard around the bar this weekend.

"The backend of the bullpen is a mess."

Guillermo Mota has done nothing to quiet critics of his steroid use, with an ERA over eight in limited action since his return from suspension. But his strikeout-to-walk ratio is solid and he's K-ing over one batter per inning. So you can make an argument that he's unlucky. Scott Schoeneweis has been a disaster all year and I'd say that teams always make a mistake when they give a journeyman reliever big money off a big year, but Schoeneweis wasn't even good last year. Dads, this is why you have to ignore your wives and tie your son's right hand behind his back until he's nine or so just to assure he's left-handed. Pedro Feliciano has a nice ERA, but the walk total is way too high and makes clear that he's not as sharp as last year. So, the Mets are short both a dominant lefty and a solid situational one (Darren Oliver) relative to 2006. Joe Smith either is proving he's human after being untouchable the first two months or the league has caught up with him. Bet the former, as Smith has imitated Chad Bradford at a fraction of the cost.

"Where's the power in the lineup?"

The Mets are fifth in isolated slugging in the NL, in a pack with three or four other teams and barely above average (.152 relative to the league-average .147). The Brewers set the pace at .180.

Carlos Delgado is starting to find his power stroke. So is David Wright. But Carlos Beltran has two homers since May 4 and Jose Reyes hasn't homered since April 21st. Reyes has improved plate discipline, with 36 walks versus 33 strikeouts, but that has come at a price, as his slugging percentage has dipped below 2006 levels.

Reyes is not what's ailing the Mets offense and was not expected to be a primary source of power. But the Mets have lost pop at the top of the lineup. With a M*A*S*H-unit needed in the parking lot for the outfielders, the bottom of the lineup has suffered, too.

The loss of Moises Alou's bat has loomed large. When you're having fluid drained from muscle at age 40, you're officially a major question mark for the balance of the year. Shawn Green is coming back and is needed. Lastings Milledge is needed, too. He could provide a threat behind Reyes and has serious upside if things click coming off his foot injury. I'd expect .280/.340/.460 right now. But Milledge is going to need to find his swing again for about a month or so in New Orleans.

"Oliver Perez just isn't consistent enough to install at the top of the rotation."

I've been very bullish about Perez since Omar Minaya acquired him last summer. He was supposed to be gravy, but Pedro Martinez's absence has thrust him into a prominent role. And he's delivered. Yes, he appears to be in need of a tune-up. But young starters (heck, most of all starters) go through rough patches. John Maine is just coming off one that was rather extended. Perez's last nine innings or so have been rough, no doubt. But his ability is real. I'd have no problem throwing Oliver Perez out there in Game 2 of the playoffs if they started next weekend.

"Thank heavens for Jorge Sosa!"

Sosa is the top line of Rick Peterson's resume right now. I'm flabbergasted that he's 6-1 and shut down the league's top hitting team (by a mile), the Tigers, on Friday. Unless you have Hall of Fame stuff, a 2.64 ERA is always going to have a large element of luck to it. Opponents are hitting a hundred points lower than league average when they put the ball in play. His rate of homer on fly balls right now is under eight percent, average is 10 percent and he was about 20 percent last year. I don't think this is sustainable. But, luck aside, Sosa's ERA should be in the low fours, useful in the middle of your rotation and manna at the bottom of it.

And, in a nutshell, this is why the sky isn't falling for the Mets. The starting pitching continues to exceed preseason expectations even of the most optimistic fans. When you can't figure out who comes out of the rotation when Pedro Martinez is reinserted in about six weeks, how bad can things really be?