Occam's Razor has come to mean that the simplest answer is usually the correct one. As Carlos Delgado just turned 35 yesterday and is undergoing the most extended slump of his life, the practical conclusion is that he's skipped the twilight years of his career and stepped fully into the darkness of baseball oblivion.
There has been no shortage of articles the last couple months with variations on this theme. The consensus seems to be represented by Joel Sherman's piece in Sunday's Daily News that proclaimed that Delgado is fielding first base "like Mike Piazza once did" and "has seemingly gotten decrepit overnight." This came after The Bergan Record's Bob Klapisch wondered aloud whether Delgado "has anything left in his swing."
Delgado himself is flailing for answers, first putting in extra time in the batting cage -- even after games -- and then taking the opposite approach by not picking up a bat and instead using his time off to be "Super Daddy" and completing household chores.
Through June of 2006, Delgado had 22 homers and 55 RBIs. Thus far in 2007, he sits at 11 and 42, respectively. Of course, his average has sunk to the .220 range. For the last calendar year, he's at .240 with 29 homers and 103 RBI with an .800 OPS, barely adequate for a big-league first baseman.
So are Sherman, Klapisch and the thousands of the faithful at Shea who now boo Delgado after every empty at-bat correct? Or is the explanation of what ails Delgado a little less obvious and more complicated? Let's put him under the stat microscope and see what we can find.
Forget about comparing Delgado's defense at first base to Mike Piazza. He has a reputation of being a bad fielder and we all have a tendency to focus on what confirms beliefs, disregarding any evidence to the contrary. A few weeks ago, when I focused on the Mets defense, Delgado was plus-five in plays above or below average, one of the better rankings in the league. Yes, Baseball Info Solution video scout Sven Jenkins wasn't buying it, but it's hard to say Delgado's a significantly below average defender.
He's paid to hit, anyway. And Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system expected Delgado to suffer an injury-based decline, with just 439 at-bats this season. It did not foretell a significant decline in production when healthy. Bill James saw no appreciable attrition at all, giving him 37 homers and a typical Delgado OPS over 582 at-bats.
PECOTA uses comparable players to make projections. Let's make the leap and assume that this is the best way to assess the future viability of a player and see how those scoring most comparable to Delgado through age 34 faired thereafter.
Here are his top 10 comparables, in order: Jim Thome, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff, Jose Canseco, Jeff Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez, Willie McCovey, Reggie Jackson, Rafael Palmeiro and Duke Snider.
Thome, of course, seemed washed up in 2005, bounced back last year with one of his better years at age 35, and has been about as good this year when he's been healthy.
Thomas hasn't put up a year close to his peak since age 32, was unhealthy for much of his age 36 and 37 seasons, but was again very productive at age 38. This year, he's posted numbers in line with his age 34 year. There have been injury issues with Thomas that don't appear to be present with Delgado.
McGriff seemed washed up at age 33 and 34, but then posted good years at ages 35 and 37 (age 36 was relatively poor).
Canseco was done at 34. Bagwell's power starting dropping off at age 36. Gonzalez broke down at age 31. McCovey was a very effective hitter through age 36. Jackson had a huge age 36 season after George Steinbrenner wrote him off at age 35. Palmiero has the steroid cloud hanging over him, corrupting his data. Snider couldn't stay healthy after age 30, but remained a productive hitter through age 35 (in very limited action).
Canseco (back), Thomas (foot, ankle), Thome (back), Bagwell (shoulder), Gonzalez (back) and Snider (knee) all suffered due to injury. Injuries are not a factor for Delgado in 2007.
This leaves us with McGriff as Delgado's best comparable. McGriff bounced back strong after he turned 35 even after showing signs of decline at an earlier age than Delgado across multiple season. McCovey is a good comparable, too. I figured that McCovey was strictly a platoon hitter late in his career, but he hit lefties much better than he did righties at age 35 (though that was not the case at age 36). Jackson collapsed at age 37 before bouncing back nicely at age 39.
What we learn here is that older sluggers who've had success comparable to Delgado have bad years just as younger players do and bounce back just as forcefully -- as long as they're reasonably healthy.
Let's see if we can find something in Delgado's current stat profile that provides a foundation for optimism (and good hitting).
His average on balls in play (.251, league average .300) is way down relative to recent levels; he was at .276 last year and .338 in 2005. His flyball rate is up, but he's popping up about twice as much as he was last year at a little over 10 percent of the time. He's hitting about as many line drives as he did last year, but his home run rate on flyballs is about half of what it was then (11.8 percent). That power number has risen dramatically the last six weeks. As we all know, he's hitting .192 with runners in scoring position, about a hundred points worse than he did last year. His strikeouts are about the same as last year, but the walks are way down.
The trends are bad. But I'm sure they were for the guys who bounced back, too. And don't think the upswing has to begin in a new year, as those are just arbitrary points in time. There's no denying that late-career sluggers like Delgado can be erratic and unpredictable. But that cuts both ways, with upswings in production not uncommon well after what many observers conclude are the final credits of a brilliant career.
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