While Rutgers and South Florida are clearly the two worst teams in the conference — at least on paper — after that the situation becomes much more muddled. There's a lot to like about every other team, and it's hard to believe that two of the remaining 14 school won't even get to play in the conference tournament come March. You can bet that, if the team I have pegged for 14th is one of those two, its coach's job security will be seriously damaged.
After nearly half a decade of scandal and bad basketball, St. John's finally showed a glimmer of promise in 2006-07, making the Big East Tournament and posting a winning record for the first time since 2003. Head coach Norm Roberts has worked hard to get SJU back to respectability, but he also took advantage of a down conference to finish 11th, a feat he'll struggle to duplicate this winter. Last year's team couldn't rebound or shoot but used stiff defense to stay in and win games. This year's club doesn't figure to improve much on either of its deficiencies, though it should bring the same Roberts style defense and intensity.
Looking at St. John's roster, there's no other possible team to pick 14th based on returning talent. The Red Storm has no scoring punch, little depth and little to get excited about in the short-term. But Roberts has collected a set of hard-working players who play intense ball for 40 minutes and make opponents bleed to win.
The face of that overachieving mentality is senior Eugene Lawrence, who despite a lack of most of the essential skills of a basketball player — quickness, size, shooting ability — will be St. John's starting point guard for the fourth straight season this winter. While Lawrence may be the epitome of the spirit that has made the Johnnies competitive again, he's also the quintessence of why this program is so limited. Lawrence is a MAAC-level guard playing the most minutes on a Big East team with postseason aspirations. It's hard to imagine another place in the Big East (except USF) where he'd get more than backup minutes, but he's supposed to be a key cog on this squad. For all of the personal attributes I admire in Lawrence and his willingness to get teammates involved (19th in the nation in assist rate last season), Geno's physical limitations create a low ceiling for his last SJU squad.
Anthony Mason is a player whose ceiling is much higher, both physically and metaphorically. He needs to be a star for St. John's to take a step forward in 2007-08. Mase Jr. can start by staying around the basket more rather than drifting to the perimeter to take another wishful 3-pointer. The streaky Mason can make a modest percentage (32.8 in 2006-07), but those shots take him away from his strengths — banging the glass and taking the ball to the rim. With interior players Lamont Hamilton and Aaron Spears gone, Mason needs to hang around the paint much more often as a junior.
Besides Lawrence, Mason, emerging sophomore Qa'rraan Calhoun and sweet-shooter Larry Wright, the rest of St. John's returning roster is mainly riffraff best left on the sidelines as Roberts tries to integrate a group of seven freshmen.
Justin Burrell is the best of the new bunch, cut from the same mold as Mason, an explosive athlete who plays above the rim. He's built stouter and stronger than Mason. 6-foot-10 Dele Coker will try to replenish some of the inside force lost with the departures of Hamilton and Speares, and he may be bigger and stronger than both, but as with most big men, it may take Coker a season to get used to the Big East. D.J. Kennedy will bring St. John's another athletic wing player who likes to attack the basket. He's not as rangy as Mason or Burrell, but has the aggressive scoring mentality St. John's longs for. Roberts hopes that 5-foot-7 mighty mite Malik Boothe and off-guard Paris Horne will grow into the Red Storm's backcourt of the future.
The 2007 class is Roberts' best haul yet, but I wonder whether he'll be around to help them succeed. There will be a lot of pressure for SJU to repeat and even improve upon last year's 11th-place finish, winning record and Big East Tournament appearance, but I'm not convinced he has the horses to do it. This team will ride or die with Mason, and a breakout season from Calhoun and at least one of the freshmen wouldn't hurt either. For Roberts' sake, I hope he's able to squeeze out a conference tournament bid and keep his job. Roberts has been a model of hard work and class in his four seasons, and his kids play hard for him. But years of weak recruiting may finally prove to be his downfall this winter.
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