16. South Florida
15. Rutgers
14. St. John's
I want to make one thing clear as I continue my early previews of the 16 Big East teams: these rankings are exceptionally precarious. Cincinnati, for instance, is a very solid team that might even make the NCAA Tournament if things break right, but considering the depth and strength of the conference, they were my odd-team out in the fight for the last Big East Tournament slot. With all that in mind, I'm looking forward to see how silly these rankings will look in February.
13. Cincinnati
While Rutgers and South Florida are clearly the two worst teams in the conference at least on paper after that the situation becomes much more muddled. There's a lot to like about every other team, and it's hard to believe that a team with as much talent as the Bearcats (or St. John's, whom I previewed earlier) might miss out on the conference tournament, but questions at guard and a lack of Big East experience throughout their rotation may mean two straight Marches without any time in the Apple for Queen City denizens.
It hardly makes sense that Cincinnati will field a team with five seniors this winter, especially considering that none of the five has played more than a season by the mighty Ohio (Timmy Crowell would have been the sixth if he hadn't decided to transfer). That's what's come of Mick Cronin's decision to bring in a host of junior college quick-fixes to help put a Band-Aid on the transition from the Bob Huggins Era.
Whatever help those JuCo's were supposed to provide never materialized in 2007. After entering the Big East season at a mediocre 9-4, the Bearcats lost 13 of their first 14 conference games, the lone win an improbable, overtime victory over West Virginia. In fact, the Bearcats were unable to outscore any Big East team over 40 minutes, needing overtime to knock off Seton Hall for their only other conference win. The last-place finish was an embarrassing start to Cronin's coaching regime in Cincy, but help is on the way we think.
Along with the five seniors, Cronin has signed six freshmen for the coming season. The gem of the group is 7-footer Anthony McClain, a high-upside player who is already a defensive force. Alvin Mitchell, a shooter, and Jason Henry, a slasher, are also immediate-impact freshmen. The Bearcats added all three players against intense competition both within the league and nationally, proving that UC and Cronin still have their recruiting chops.
Also joining the crew in the Queen City this winter is Mike Williams, a forward and transfer from the University of Texas. He should step in and get immediate run in the frontcourt next to Marcus Sikes and "Super" John Williamson. The former is a thick forward who averaged double-figures in scoring until netting just seven points over his last two games. Sikes will need to improve on his 40 percent field-goal shooting and five rebounds per game to stay on the floor or help the Bearcats when he's there.
Williamson is another JuCo forward and the best player on the team entering the season. Starting every game for UC last season, Williamson scored in double-figures in 22 of the team's 29 games and averaged seven boards per. Adam Hrycaniuk, after being ruled ineligible last season for playing for a semi-pro team in Europe, also gets a chance to play his one and only season in the black-and-red frontcourt this winter it's unclear whether he'll help on the floor, but he sure is an interesting read off of it (see Jamual Warren's comments on living with the big man this summer).
The frontcourt, while not particularly rangy, is stout enough to compete in the Big East. It's the backcourt that might leave Cronin shaking his head all winter. Deonta Vaughn is as exciting as he is maddening at the point. As a freshman, Vaughn often followed winning plays with ill-advised shots or head-scratching passes. He shot for a poor percentage (29 percent from deep, 37 percent overall), despite a few games where everything he threw up went down (he had four 20-point games). It's unclear whether a shoot-first point guard with a penchant for bricklaying can lead this team to anything more than oblivion. He led the team in minutes last season and must be far more efficient if he plays as often during this upcoming one.
Warren is an uninspiring option at the other guard spot. He's a tough-minded, physical player who hearkens back to Huggins' teams but without the talent to play for those clubs. Cincy's best shot is for Mitchell, the freshman from Fort Lauderdale, Fla., to step in and stretch defenses in his first season.
After Andy Kennedy was let go despite an impressive first season as a last-minute replacement for Huggins in Cincinnati, the Bearcats athletic department plucked Cronin from Murray State. Since arriving Cronin had tried to implement a two-pronged strategy to make Cincinnati competitive in the short-term while building the foundation for a return to prominence in the long-term. The first prong has clearly done nothing to keep Cincinnati out of the Big East cellar. We'll soon learn whether the second prong will bring in players good enough to get the Bearcats back into the league's upper echelon.
With Kennedy's quick turnaround at Ole Miss last year, the UC administration may not have the stomach for a long rebuilding effort. Cronin has gotten (and fairly so) a year's grace period, but he'll likely use up whatever compassion the Bearcats faithful can proffer if UC doesn't find itself in any postseason tournament for the second straight season.