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5. Pittsburgh

8. Villanova. Jay Wright has led Villanova to the NCAA Tournament in each of the last three seasons, but if he and the Wildcats are to make it four straight, Wright will have to do his best coaching job yet. With three-fifths of the starting lineup gone, the Wildcats are perhaps a bit too young and a bit too small to make a mark in the Big East this season.

That's not to say they don't have their share of talent, starting with last year's Big East Rookie of the Year, Scottie Reynolds, who is back to run the show. With the other two scoring options, Mike Nardi and Curtis Sumpter, gone, he'll be even more essential to this team's success than he was last year — and he was pretty essential then. There are a few worrying aspects to Reynolds' game, but let's start with the many things he does well. He's a fine outside shooter, hitting on 37.6 percent of his shots from beyond the arc. He's also a good distributor and gets to the line a lot for someone of his stature (listed at a generous 6-foot-2) who takes so many jump shots. Reynolds is also modestly effective at picking up steals, though he's not a defensive stopper.

On the negative side is Reynolds' high turnover rate, but that is something that should improve as he matures at the college level. Reynolds' habit of forcing shots inside is more worrisome. He fashions himself a guard with the ability to get in the lane and create scoring opportunities for him and his teammates. And, while he is able to draw his share of fouls and dish for easy hoops, the shots he does take tend to be wayward. He made fewer than 40 percent of his shots from inside the 19' 9" last year, and that was the explanation for his poor 47.6 expected field-goal percentage. To put that figure in perspective, the average college basketball team was almost precisely 50 percent in eFG last year. Reynolds' mark helped drag down the team average to 48.8, good for 220th in the 336-team Division I rankings.

The bigger problem is, with Nardi (51.1) and Sumpter (51.1) gone, Reynolds may be asked — or perhaps forced — to take even more marginal shots. This is the stat that I think the Wildcats' season will turn on: will Scottie Reynolds force too many shots and will he make enough of them if he does? With Nardi injured against Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament, Reynolds was 6-for-18 from the field, including 3-for-10 from 2-point range. He also had just two assists in 33 minutes as the Wildcats offense broke down. Reynolds continued to shoot for a low percentage this summer during his stint with the U.S. Pan-Am Games team.

There are players besides Reynolds on Villanova this year, and many of them are capable of easing his burden if he'll let them. The sophomore guard probably feels the need to take control of games and drive his team to victories, but I'm sure Wright is turning his ear to make sure Reynolds continues to distribute the ball. One way to make sure that happens is to have Corey Fisher run the point at times.

Fisher is a 6-1 guard out of Catholic powerhouse St. Pat's in New Jersey. Some are already comparing Fisher to former Main Line guard Allen Ray, but he's probably more apt to create off the dribble and use his quickness to get him and the ball to any spot on the floor, whereas Ray was more prone to sit around the perimeter on offense. Fisher is still not a defensive force and lacks the mid-range game, something that may become more essential with the deeper 3-point line. A Fisher-Reynolds backcourt also creates matchup problems on defense with teams that have bigger guards, but considering Wright's tactics in Villanova's Elite Eight season two years ago, he'll probably try to use quickness to his advantage.

Reggie Redding seems the most likely candidate to get the nod as the third guard in Wright's setup. Redding had a terrible freshman year with his shot, making just seven of 40 3-pointers (17.5 percent). He also had a high turnover rate for a guard who doesn't handle the ball very much, but the sophomore had 11 points and five rebounds in Nova's Big East Tournament loss to Georgetown in a breakout performance. Redding will need to find ways to contribute in other ways — like rebounding and defense — while he works on catching up his offense.

Corey Stokes will surely push Redding for playing time immediately. A strong 6-5, the St. Benedict (N.J.) product has superb shooting range and athleticism. He should be able to slash to the hole with effectiveness, but his rebounding ability and ball-handling remain in question. Villanova will need its third guard to help out on the backboards, and that may limit him to playing alongside Reynolds or Fisher but not both. Still, Stokes fills out a superb, if young, four-guard rotation for Wright.

The frontcourt may have more experience than the precocious backcourt but has far less upside. Shane Clark and Dante Cunningham are the two men most likely to start in the frontcourt. The 6-7 Clark offers a little bit of everything but does nothing particularly well. His best asset is his versatility, as he is able to score from inside and out and shoot at a high percentage. He's also a good passer for a forward, but Clark is prone to turn the ball over and doesn't rebound like you would like a 4 to — primarily because he's more comfortable on the wing and only playing there as a matter of necessity.

Dante Cunningham appears poised for a breakout season. The 6-8 junior should be the primary (and perhaps only) target in the post now that Sumpter and Will Sheridan have graduated. Cunningham is effective around the basket and also sports a 77.9 percent rate from the free-throw line. In fact, the entire Wildcats team was exceptional last year, leading the nation at 78.3 percent. Cunningham also offers several things Clark doesn't, including the ability to crash the offensive glass, block shots and pick up steals. His help defense will deter teams from exploiting Villanova's lack of size.

Villanova has a couple more young options for when Clark or Cunningham takes a breather. Sophomore Casiem Drummond is a burly 6-10, 280-pounder from Bloomfield Tech (N.J.), and is both a good rebound and a usable post option. Even at 6-8, Antonio Pena (Brooklyn) is more of a wing than a true forward, and, after red-shirting last winter, he can expect some time at Villanova's unique vision of the 4 position.

With three freshmen, three sophomores and two juniors comprising the likely rotation at Villanova this year, the Wildcats could struggle against their bigger, more experienced Big East rivals. But Wright's teams always play with a toughness and intelligence that reflects their coach, and by February, no one in the conference will want a piece of the Cats.