10/02/2007 12:40 PM ET
Mets by the Numbers: Who's to blame
SNY.tv analyst says Green, Lo Duca must go
By Michael Salfino / SNY.tv baseball analyst
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Shawn Green struggled both defensively and at the plate this year, writes Michael Salfino. (AP)

Mets fans are mad as hell and they're not going to take it anymore. They want blood. And their vitriol is being fed by the Lowest Common Denominator talk radio, with Mike and the Mad Dog screaming on Monday for the heads of Lastings Milledge, Carlos Beltran, Orlando Hernandez, Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner and, of course, Tom Glavine.

I think that the Mad Dog (Chris Russo) would willingly admit to being a clown. That's certainly his on-air persona. But the callers seem very serious. And, of course, they are upset and angry.

Let's try to be a little more rational in this offseason primer for the Mets. What needs to be done and what reasonably can be done to improve New York's fortunes in 2008?

That means we first have to do away with criticism of the Mets not crying (I mean this literally, to paraphrase the Record's Bob Klapisch) after yesterday's loss. And let's get real and admit that running out ground balls and similar criticism over hustling and "maturity" is just what they say about losers. It very likely has very little and perhaps nothing at all to do with losing itself.

Professional athletes are never going to react to losses like fans. It's their job. They have perform the next day. So they turn the page on failure, emotionally, as quickly as possible. You can't carry emotional baggage from yesterday's game when you're a pro.

Yes, in a perfect world, everyone would run out ground balls and never be distracted by their frustration milliseconds after swinging at a bad pitch or missing a good one. Everyone would always know how many outs there were and what to do in every situation. But the media very selectively applies the "Hustle, Heady Test" to players. Imagine, for a moment, if Jose Reyes didn't know the force play was in effect on Friday night versus David Wright not knowing it.

There's a long offseason left, unfortunately. Let's look at the cold numbers while the body is still warm, one controversial area at a time. This will be the first of two parts. We'll look at the manager and hitters here and the entire pitching staff in the companion piece.

I'm ambivalent about whether Willie Randolph gets fired. Firing a manager is rarely a real solution. But Randolph should have gotten more out of this roster and that's important when you lose by one game. He did not develop Lastings Milledge despite Shawn Green's general uselessness. He didn't get enough innings out of his third-best reliever, Pedro Feliciano. He didn't play Ramon Castro enough. He had too long a leash with Guillermo Mota, especially. Mota tantalized me, too. But Randolph went beyond the limits of patience only because of some random bit of success Mota had for Randolph in 2006 (forgetting about the postseason). Randolph also refused to test either Phil Humber or Mike Pelfrey in the pen only because they've never done that before, proving again that he overvalues experience and undervalues talent.

Jose Reyes disappointed immensely in the second half. But to say that it's because he's immature is silly. Was he more mature last year? We can all agree that he needs to play better and, at 24, he very likely will in the near future. In 76 "clutch" at bats, Reyes hit .197 with a .551 OPS. So he was far from being a catalyst in any meaningful sense. He led off 321 innings and the Mets scored 186 runs in those innings, 0.58 runs per inning. That's barely better than what the Mets scored in innings where someone else led off (0.54 runs). When Reyes did get on base as a lead off hitter, the Mets scored 1.11 runs per inning.

Last year, Reyes took 52 percent of pitches, this year 56 percent. The problem was more of those pitches he took were strikes (68 percent vs. 64 percent last year). Reyes swung at 69 percent of pitches in the strike zone in 2007, 73 percent in 2006. I'd say that the Mets desire to have Reyes get on base more by taking more pitches contributed significantly to his performance decline this year. He'll walk more when he hits more and pitchers choose to work to the next hitter. He's never going to be Rickey Henderson, so let's get over it and settle for Reyes, 2006.

I guess I have to include Carlos Beltran, as Mike and the Mad Dog have him being traded to the Giants for Noah Lowry (14 wins!). That's Russo saying that while wearing the Joker hat. Co-host Mike Francesa: "(Beltran) doesn't like New York." Perhaps Carlos confided in Francesa over a plate of lasagna and French fries. In reality, Beltran is not in any remote way anything close to being a problem and, of course, is going nowhere.

Moises Alou: Professional Hitter. That should be his business card. Bring him back. Pick up the option. But figure on 300 at bats and pray he's viable when in matters in the fall.

Carlos Delgado is not going anywhere. He had a bad year. He makes nearly $15 million in 2008. He might be in a free fall, but probably just had a bad year and will bounce back significantly. He sported a .844 OPS in the second half and an .870 OPS all year on the road. He just has to hit at home (.619 OPS). Booing him won't help.

Shawn Green is a goner for sure. That's the only way to keep Willie Randolph from playing him, apparently.

Count me among all the stat guys who think Paul Lo Duca is ridiculously overrated. If not for Lo Duca's injury on Friday, Ramon Castro (11 homers in 142 at bats) would have received one start since being activated from the DL in mid-September. If Lo Duca was half the team guy he's purported to be, he would have demanded that Castro receive much more playing time when he was healthy enough to take it.

Castro is a free agent and should be brought back. But you need a guy who can at least play half the time and probably more given Castro's back troubles. You wouldn't need Castro if you could pry Kenji Johjima of the Mariners, the best throwing catcher in the majors and a capable hitter. But he'll cost a lot. The Mariners would make a move with him given the readiness of top catching prospect Jeff Clement. Alas, the Mariners don't need what the Mets have -- outfield prospects.

Michael Barrett is probably the most reasonable free-agent catcher available. But Barrett didn't hit last year and throws out 16 percent of basestealers, even worse than Lo Duca. Ivan Rodriguez is old, declining and represented by Scott Boras (so he'll cost a lot). As much as I need to be spared another year of hearing about his "grit," it's quite possible that Lo Duca comes back, considering the free agent options.

The knives are clearly out for Lastings Milledge. On August 7, Milledge was hitting .306 with an .842 OPS, his high-water mark for the year. Those stats were only for about 100 ABs. So, I don't want to overstate them. But Milledge not only didn't get moved up in the Mets disappointing lineup thereafter, he started just 25 of 47 games he was available to play. It's very tough hitting eighth in the NL. You protect a young hitter like Milledge by moving him up in the lineup, not down. Note his .895 OPS in 29 scant at bats as No. 2 hitter.

Luis Castillo fills the hole at second. But he looked awfully gimpy on a knee that seems chronically injured and it would probably be a mistake to sign him as a free agent for anything more than a song. The Mets can go with Ruben Gotay, who was impressive enough before the Castillo trade. But that's risky. The best free agent options are Tad Iguchi, who the Phillies will not sign and, don't laugh, Kaz Matsui, who seemed very serviceable for the Rockies until you note that he hit .330 in Colorado and was the Matsui we remember on the road. The economy play might be White Sox SS Juan Uribe (20 homers, .234 average), who has experience at second and who could slide in for Reyes in an emergency.

Michael Salfino is a nationally syndicated baseball columnist and analyst.
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