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4. Marquette. For much of last winter, the Golden Eagles seemed like the Arizona Wildcats' 1997 national champions, just 10 years later. With four talented guards and questions up front, I thought Marquette could ride its strengths deep into March. But three things happened that prevented Tom Crean's undersized team from making a dent in the Big East and NCAA tournaments: 1) Dominic James couldn't shoot; 2) Jerel McNeal couldn't stay healthy; 3) None of the big men could fill the void. This winter, Marquette will look almost exactly like it did last season. For the Golden Eagles to improve on a finish that saw them lose six of their final nine games, they'll need to stay healthy and see distinct improvement from their most important player.

James just couldn't live up to the hype he created for himself during a remarkable freshman season. The numbers weren't all bad for the 5-11 Indianan. James saw his steal rate improve, got to the free-throw line more and marginally improved his turnover rate. What James didn't do is make shots. His 2-point percentage went from 49.6 to 46.4, his 3-point percentage went from 30.1 to 27.2 (his free-throw rate did improve from 64.1 to 65.1 percent). James would have scored 31 more points (in 34 games) if he had maintained his freshman percentages. But the problem wasn't how much worse he shot, but that he was expected to show improvement in his shooting as a sophomore, something Marquette needed with the graduation of Steve Novak, one of the best shooters in the nation in 2005-06. It also didn't help that James went from being an exceptional rebounding guard as a freshman to just a decent one as a sophomore.

What's unfair to James is that he wasn't the only Marquette guard to struggle in his second season. McNeal fills up the stat sheet with his share of rebounds, assists and especially steals, but he too shot very poorly in his sophomore season, and McNeal didn't do nearly as well as James at taking care of the ball. McNeal missed five games on the season (one against Providence after a clash of heads at practice and four more with a wrist injury that finished his season), but he wasn't an efficient offensive player when he was on the court. He made a poor percentage of 2-pointers (45.4) and was not an asset from 3-point range either (31.3 percent).

No one in the lauded three-headed backcourt was much of an outside threat, as Wesley Matthews was equally inept at 28.8 percent. But the rest of Matthews' game improved as a sophomore. He's the least heralded of the three, but he had the best second season. He shot less often than either but made more, including 49.1 percent from 2-point range and 77 percent of a team-leading 183 free throws. He also was the best rebounder and held his own on defense. If McNeal can improve his ball-handling and James can improve his shooting efficiency to Matthews' levels, Crean will have a backcourt worth lauding again with a fourth member of note.

By the end of the season, that fourth guard, then-freshman David Cubillan, had emerged as the Jason Terry of the team, an off-the-bench spark who could run the team and knock down shots. Cubillan, while not a defensive dominator like Terry, led Marquette in 3-point shooting (42.5 percent) and had the best turnover rate. Marquette lost something on the backboards and in ball distribution with the less rugged Cubillan on the floor, but he became a dependable option on those nights when James struggled, which was pretty much every night. The four guards should split the 120 minutes Crean will devote to them in his three-guard lineup.

The two likely starters at forward — seniors Ousmane Barro and Dan Fitzgerald — had the two best effective field-goal percentages last season and yet took the fewest shots, which speaks to their willingness to shoot only when that option was too good to pass up. Barro is your typical mucker down low, despite packing just 235 pounds on his 6-10 frame. He's the team's best rebounder and probably its best shot-blocker, though a modest one at that (junior Dwight Burke had a better shot-block rate last year in limited minutes). Barro is also a dependable scorer when given the space and opportunity, hitting on 59.9 percent of his shots from the floor.

Fitzgerald is a physical clone of Novak, which is to say he is an unimpressive 6-9 with a game better-suited to the perimeter than interior banging. But with three guards beside him, bang he must, and he showed a modest ability to rebound. The best of his game still lies outside, where he led Marquette with 42 3-point field goals. He helped bail out his team with four threes in wins over Pittsburgh and Providence, and he scored 20 in each of Marquette's Big East Tournament games. But in the ugly 61-49 NCAA Tournament loss to Michigan State, the Spartans' big and athletic frontcourt limited Fitzgerald to just two field goals and four rebounds before he fouled out in the second half. Fitzgerald is not the ideal player a coach would want in a lineup featuring just two forwards, but his shooting and willingness to compete with oversized opponents makes him an asset.

Three other mid-sized players will play key roles for Crean, but none will provide the size the Golden Eagles may need to become the elite team many anticipate. Lazar Hayward did not vault on to the Milwaukee scene with the same force that many expected upon his arrival from Western New York, but the 6-6 wing showed two fortuitous traits: he can rebound and take care of the ball. Hayward was one of the team's best offensive rebounders, which helped Marquette finish 19th in the country on that side of the floor (a lot of that perhaps do to the inordinate number of bricks the guards chucked). But they were just 244th in the nation on the defensive glass. What the rising sophomore didn't do well was shoot, making just 20.8 percent of 48 3-point attempts, a figure hardly mitigated by his modest 50 percent rate from inside the arc. The good news is that Marquette probably doesn't need Hayward to score much this season, and Crean may turn to him in lieu of Fitzgerald on those nights when Marquette is being hammered on the defensive glass.

Crean dipped into the Minnesota pool of prep stars to nab his lone impact freshman for 2007-08, Trevor Mbakwe. He appears to be a younger, shorter version of Barro, but with an upside beyond MU's starting center. Mbakwe is a tough, strong rebounder who doesn't yet have the offensive game to match his ability to bang. At 6-8, 245-pounds (the latter seems generous), he's also a bit undersized for the power forward spot, especially when you consider he'll often have to matchup with opposing centers in Marquette's lightweight lineup. Reserve forward Burke, now a junior, has a similar stature to Mbakwe with similar strengths. Those two give Crean more options up front without losing any of the size and rebounding ability that he can ill afford to sacrifice.

What are we to make of all this? What should we expect of a team that started the season so swimmingly — reaching the top ten in December — and ending the winter as a fringe NCAA Tournament team, easily dispatched by the superior Spartans? With most of the key players on Marquette juniors and seniors, I'd expect a more even level of play across the season. The Eagles' defense will continue to turn over opponents and try to create easy baskets off those forced errors, but the combination of a backcourt that is not a threat from the outside and a frontcourt without an offensive weapon probably means Marquette's ceiling is lower than it might be otherwise. Barring either a barrage of injuries or breakout seasons from James and Hayward, this smart, tough, athletic team will win plenty of games and top out somewhere between a four- and a seven-seed.