10/17/2007 10:32 AM ET
Pitino hopes questions become statements
Experienced talented team is ready for Final Four run
By Brendon Desrochers / SNY.tv
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Jersey prep star Derrick Caracter reminds people of Zach Randolph on the court. Like Randolph, Caracter is dogged by questions about his fitness and maturity. (AP)

16. South Florida
15. Rutgers
14. St. John's
13. Cincinnati
12. DePaul
11. Seton Hall
10. Notre Dame
9. West Virginia
8. Villanova
7. Providence
6. Syracuse
5. Pittsburgh
4. Marquette
3. Connecticut
2. Georgetown

1. Louisville. Though it's perhaps too much pressure for a team with several question marks, I join the slim majority in selecting Rick Pitino's Cardinals as the best team in the Big East entering the new season. Questions surround David Padgett's health, Edgar Sosa's maturity, Derrick Caracter's fitness and Terrence Williams' shot selection. And those are the four players most crucial to Louisville's success this year. Still, Pitino has the talent and depth — and some experience on top of that — to make the Cardinals legitimate contenders for the Big East throne.

Let's start with the big men. Nearly every other team in the country would love to have either the senior Padgett or the sophomore Caracter. That Louisville has both is important, though, because neither is entirely dependable. Padgett's knees have been a constant source of concern for him since transferring from Kansas, but when he's on the floor, Padgett does everything well without demanding the ball. He shot 60 percent from the floor and is a skilled rebounder, especially on the offensive glass. Despite the injuries limiting his athleticism, he's still able to block shots at an impressive rate. He can also be trusted not to fritter away possessions by turning the ball over. Padgett is the team's most consistent and diverse player, and his health will be their No. 1 priority this winter.

Caracter went from Jersey prep star (St. Patrick's) to outcast at Louisville after early attitude problems. He played in only two games from mid-December until the second week of February, but in the season's final month, he flourished in short bursts. He had 16 points and 10 rebounds in 18 minutes against USF, 16 and 6 in 20 at UConn, and 13 and 7 in 14 minutes against Seton Hall. The 6-foot-8 forward is clearly effective in limited minutes, but there are still questions about his ability to play more than half the game effectively. His girth — apparently holding at just under 300 pounds right now — makes him sluggish on defense and causes Caracter to commit silly fouls. If he doesn't get himself removed from the game because of foul trouble, fatigue quickly sets in. He has a game reminiscent of Zack Randolph — with the combination of scoring and rebounding — but he needs to stay on the floor to be productive.

Sophomore Earl Clark is likely to rotate with Caracter and Padgett at the 4-5 spots in the lineup. Clark showed himself to be a skilled offensive player in his first year, able to score from inside and out. He's also a good rebounder, despite his thin frame. Pitino would like Clark to add power (beware loud music at link destination) to his finesse game, but either way, his skills will be hard to keep off the floor.

Pitino plans to start Williams at the small forward spot in the Seattle native's junior year. Williams is a special athlete, perhaps the best athlete in terms of leaping and speed in the conference, but his skills remain underwhelming. Williams is a simply dreadful shooter with a poor inside shooting percentage (44.9) and a dreadful 3-point mark (26.1). Despite that woeful percentage, Williams was somehow allowed to attempt a team-high 188 3-pointers. He's useful on the floor as a defender, distributer and rim-rocker on the wing, but Williams shooting a jump shot should not be one of the first three options on any offensive possession.

Two years ago, it seemed a given that Juan Palacios would be a star at Louisville, but ankle and neck injuries have derailed a can't-miss career. Palacios is likely to be Williams' top backup and an option at the 4 as well. Juan Diego is still useful as a rebounder and defender, and he won't hurt you with his offense either — Palacios hit on 52.6 percent of his 2-pointers last year — but he's no longer a difference-maker.

George Goode is the most likely of the freshman to make an impact, though Pitino said that guard Preston Knowles is the most ready, and the coach admitted that none of the freshmen is likely to play much this season. Goode is a 6-foot-8 wing known for his sweet shot. Terrance Farley, the 6-foot-10 junior project, seems like a red-shirt candidate, but Pitino has indicated that he'll probably be active this season because of the uncertainty surrounding Caracter and Padgett.

In a sad development, 7-foot freshman center Clarence Holloway had to undergo heart surgery to repair a distended valve after a routine physical last months. The Chicago native will almost certainly miss this season, and the rest of his basketball career is also in doubt (doctors are optimistic that he'll play again). Holloway did come out of the surgery with a repaired aortic valve and is recovering well.

Louisville had to go through the growing pains of a freshman backcourt last year, as Sosa and Jerry Smith saw a lot of the time there (along with since-departed Brandon Jenkins). Pitino took the good with the bad, shuttling the pair in and out of games. By season's end, Sosa had become an explosive, go-to option for the Cardinals, a development typified by the Rice High star's 31-point performance in a three-point loss to Texas A&M in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Pitino surely would have preferred more than the one assist Sosa had in that game, but the sophomore proved he could distribute as well, and now the Cardinals have a fail-safe on those nights when nothing else is working. Sosa is strong and athletic, with the ability to create contact and finish at the rim. He's not a bad outside shooter, either, hitting 34.5 percent last year. If Louisville can depend on Sosa to be a consistent player in his second season, the Cardinals will be as tough as anyone in the nation.

Smith is a pure shooter (47.8 percent from deep) who struggled to take care of the basketball as a freshman. He's sort of a one-trick pony right now, as his defense needs to improve to become an asset, though at 6-1, Smith can hold his own on the glass. Junior Andre McGee is lightning quick at 5-10 and will serve as the primary backup at the point. Knowles should also factor in there. Now in his second year at U of L, Cornell transfer Will Scott is another option behind Smith but possesses the same strength — shooting — without Smith's upside. The junior will get an extended run on those nights when Smith is flighty.

Rick Pitino has a team with a lot of ways to beat opponents. The Cards can pound the ball inside to either of their dynamic centers. They can allow Smith and Clark to exert pressure from the perimeter. They can use Sosa to break down the defense or Williams in a full-court game. And the defense is good enough to create turnovers, defend the 3 and block its share of shots. But despite all of its assets, this is a fragile roster, and any flake outs or injuries could severely damage Cards fans' hopes of a return to the Final Four. Should this rotation stay focused and intact, Louisville is on the short list of Final Four contenders.

You can contact Brendon Desrochers directly at brendon.desrochers@mlb.com.
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