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Why, then, is this good news? Because trading down is the play at the top of the draft. NFL teams pay as if they know exactly how the first half-dozen guys will perform. As D'Brickashaw Ferguson has proven (he's shown nothing special thus far), they don't. So, you find one of the many suckers who thinks they know (A) who's going to be good and (B) that other teams think exactly the way they do about the same players (because it's so obvious!). This is why economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler refer to the No. 1 overall pick as the "Loser's Curse" in their fine, eponymous research paper.

I realize it's unlikely the Jets are thinking like me, as they traded up twice last year (the sucker play, though it sometimes pays to be a sucker). And I admit the fallback of getting a top-rated, pass-rush stud at the top of the draft is enticing. You could flush tens of millions down the toilet with this move (Dwayne Robertson, anyone?).

But, hey, it's not our money. And the Jets proved last offseason they'll sit on a bunch of cap space in some convoluted attempt to play NFL Moneyball. True NFL Moneyball would be targeting low No. 1 and high No. 2 picks in the draft, never trading away any draft picks and never trading for and signing 29-year-old running backs.

There's really no way that anyone can be a pessimist with the 2007 Jets. If you say they're going to go 1-15, you have a rock-solid case, based on reason. They almost certainly will not be favored in one more game this year. Their best shot is in Miami.

Over 20 years ago, the networks televised a Jets-Dolphins game in Miami with no sound. These two teams are so bad, they should try it this time with no picture.

If you're a cock-eyed optimist, you say 2-14. Jet Green bleeders wearing face paint can delude themselves into believing 3-13. Any of these outcomes puts the Jets in delicious trading position come next April. Unfortunately, it's not impossible that the Patriots could be picking in front of them, thanks to owning San Francisco's pick. Why the commissioner didn't take away the Patriots highest No. 1 pick next year instead of their own as penalty for being proven cheaters is beyond me.

Kellen Clemens gets a glowing progress report for his first start since taking the Jets' reigns. The competition was formidable. Forget about what we saw or think we saw. Let's find some objective sources.

These quotes are from the Redskins as reported in the Washington Post, so you can assume the writers weren't asking leading questions regarding Clemens.

Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot:

"For him to be young and [with] the looks we threw at him, he showed a lot of poise. I think the Jets have got a real future with that quarterback. We were sending [blitzers], and he was reading them. He was finding the hot man, he was doing stuff I usually see a seven-year vet do. I think they've got something right there."

Redskins safety LaRon Landry:

"He was all over the field -- he showed he was able to scramble and find open receivers, and then he could tuck and run that pill. He did a phenomenal job."

Clemens' first semester as the Jets starting QB ends the week after the bye against a Steelers defense that may be the toughest test in all of the NFL. After that, things get easier. What we'll be looking for against the Steelers is progress from the beginning of the game until the end. That's what we saw against the tough Redskins defense. Break the eight games Clemens starts into quarters and then give him periodic and overall grades, in deciding whether the Jets have a QB of the present and future or still need one. I think it's likely the Jets have something in Clemens, but we definitely need more data.

What other positives are there on this roster?

I like rookies cornerback Darrelle Revis and inside linebacker David Harris. That makes two players I like on defense. OK, Kerry Rhodes did play great last year and still shows flashes occasionally in '07. And I like Abram Elam's desire to play right at the border of legality, which sounds cruel but which is something you need from your safeties in today's game when all the rules favor the wide receivers.

I'm not saying that the other guys are all useless. But no one else there, including Jonathan Vilma, is an impact player and you need four or five of them to have a good defense. I don't think an inside backer like Harris can be a true impact player because he's not likely to be on the field on passing downs, which are most important.

The Jets desperately need two impact front-seven guys, both of whom can rush the passer. Of course, these are the hardest players to find on defense.

The offense I'm bullish on, assuming Clemens progresses as I expect.

I don't like Thomas Jones in the present very much. He's OK. But there's no way he remains worthy of starting into his early 30s (two years away). I really think that Leon Washington could be a Brian Westbrook-type player if they gave him enough looks. Remember, everyone thought Westbrook could only be a third-down guy, too. The thing I hate about sports is that teams define a role for a guy before they really know who he is as a player, based on silly things like size and speed ratios. Washington can play and that's enough for me to expand his role. Why not give him 15-20 touches a game as a RB and receiver? I liked the play last week where he was split wide and went deep. That was Westbrook, even though Washington dropped a pass that could have been thrown a little better and toward the inside of the field.

The Jets have very good starting WRs and some depth there with Brad Smith and, yes, even Justin McCareins. Even with Ferguson being rather ordinary, the line is not terrible and only needs some middle-round guard and tackle prospects, or some free agent finds, to be solid. That sounds like a lot, I know, but if you look at the rosters of the teams with the best lines you find lots of lower picks on the offensive line. That's the big reason you don't trade middle-round picks like the Jets so cavalierly did in '07.