Last year, over 75 players in the Arizona Fall League reached the majors and 12 were on opening day rosters. NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun became the AFL poster boy, building on a desert campaign that earned him a spot on the All-Prospects Team after slugging .641.
But a lot of players who pass through the AFL don't become stars of the caliber of Braun or Troy Tulowitzki (another AFL graduate from Fall 2006). Most become more modest big league contributors.
None of the Mets allotment of AFLers are viewed by scouts and Minor League experts as top prospects. But they do project as major leaguers. Let's examine how outsiders view these various Mets and catch you up on how they're fairing for the Scottsdale Scorpions (AFL stats through November 12).
Finally, we'll assess the handful of top AFL prospects from other NL East teams.
The Mets have four pitchers on the Scorpions: lefties Adam Bostick and Eddie Camacho and righties Eddie Kunz (the Mets top pick in 2007) and Carlos Muniz.
Here's the take from Deric McKamey, advisor to the St. Louis Cardinals and author of the soon-to-be-released, third annual "Minor League Baseball Analyst" (available through BaseballHQ.com or via
Amazon):
"I like Bostick a little more than Camacho. I think Bostick can be a swing-man or two-inning reliever. Camacho to me is a LOOGY (lefty one-out guy). Muniz is going to have trouble getting lefties out, so he's a ROOGY; and you don't see too many of those in the majors."
"As for Kunz," McKamey continues, "I'm not as big a fan as some scouts. He throws 89-to-94 with a slider in the low-80s and a developing change. His command is an issue, a big problem for a short reliever. He struggled with his control for Oregon State even. I see him as a notch below an Aaron Heilman, more of a seventh-inning guy."
An American League East scout in attendance at a recent AFL game agrees with McKamey. "I can't believe Kunz was a first-round pick. I think his ceiling right now is Aaron Heilman and not many players reach their ceiling." Technically, Kunz was a first-round sandwich pick (42nd overall).
Adds Baseball America executive editor Jim Callis, primary editor of the soon-to-be released "Prospect Handbook" (available in mid-January through Baseball America), "Kunz was buried in the Oregon State bullpen after the Mets drafted him. He has a good arm, but can he throw strikes? I do see him still as a potential closer.
"Bostick of course was part of that deal where the Mets traded Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom, two hard-throwing relievers who would have looked pretty good in the New York pen last year. Bostick was a throw-in in that deal: average fastball, solid curve, probably a lefty swing man."
Bostick has pitched the best through mid-November, sporting a 1.26 ERA, no homers and 18 Ks in 19 innings (but 12 walks). Camacho has the better K/BB ratio (9:2), but has yielded 13 hits. Kunz is striking out more than a batter per inning (something he failed to do last year in college), but has yielded two homers, 14 hits and 6 walks in 9-plus innings. Muniz (who had a cup of coffee with the Mets last year) has a 3.60 ERA but has allowed 1.6 baserunners per inning (11 hits, 5 walks in 10 frames with 8 Ks).
The most familiar name among Mets hitters is Mike Carp, who is still just 21 and not someone Callis is prepared to write off.
"He did take a step back last year, but I'm not going to join the chorus and say his upside is a lefty-platoon hitter. He had wrist troubles last year and was very young for his level. I think he was another Mets prospect who was rushed."
McKamey disagrees. "I don't see plus power or plus anything, really. I see a platoon first baseman and you're not likely to need those on a big-payroll team like the Mets."
Carp's making the doubters look good, hitting .213 with no homers in his first 95 AFL ABs.
Both Callis and McKamey think that catcher Mike Nickeas projects as a backup at best.
While Nickeas hasn't hit, unheralded outfielder Caleb Stewart has been a surprising star -- five homers and added five walks in 37 plate appearances, a .313/.405/.844 line. His 1.249 OPS leads the Scorpions.
Looking beyond the stats and the impressive frame (6-2, 230), we note that Stewart, 25, is old relative to the competition. He finished his Double-A Binghamton season with a .713 OPS in 433 at bats. But his AFL performance puts him on the organization's radar screen.
Looking beyond the Mets at the rest of the NL East, let's get McKamey's take on the top AFL prospects with the best chance of appearing at the new Citi Field, if not at Shea in 2008.
Washington outfielder Justin Maxwell and Florida second baseman Chris Coghlan are the best positional prospects from the NL East.
"Maxwell is a tall, athletic speed/power guy who right now is an average defender. Coghlan is fundamentally sound and plays above his average tools; I like his outstanding plate discipline and contact ability. He's moved to second recently to lessen the importance of his average arm and he has stiff hands with limited range."
Coghlan has demonstrated decent on-base skills in Arizona but his isolated power is under .100 after slugging .534 in the Sally League last summer. The 6-foot-5 Maxwell has disappointed, hitting .189 with no power and three times as many Ks as walks.
An AL scout advises that Maxwell has "a long swing and bad approach. Plus, he's too cocky."
Three NL East pitchers highlighted in McKamey's scouting notebook are the Nationals Adam Carr and Garrett Mock (both righties) and Phillies lefty Joe Savery.
"Carr needs better command and Mock needs to better deception. Both have the velocity and movement you look for, though Carr sported a better K-rate in the minors last year."
Mock (25 in April) has been given the bigger workload in the Arizona Fall League, starting six games and pitching well, as has Carr in less than half the innings.
Savery is a lefty who sports one of the strangest AFL statlines: 0.64 ERA and 4 hits in 14 innings, with 11 walks and just 5 strikeouts.
That's called pitching to contact.