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The bracket above is updated for Georgia's win in the SEC Championship. Arizona is the odd team out. Updated 5:40 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 16.

Bracket discussion

After months of evaluating teams and seeing them jostle for position, I'm left without much conviction behind my last few picks to make the NCAA Tournament. Thursday saw almost every team around the bubble lose, a symbol of a season in which the nation's mediocre seemed especially so.

In the end, I narrowed the bubble teams to 15 who could reasonably be excluded in a fight for the last seven spots. Here's my rational behind each team making or missing the field.

Note: the bracket above assumes a few outcomes tomorrow. 1) Kansas beats Texas. If that doesn't happen, you can simply flip those two in this projection. 2) Wisconsin and Arkansas win their conference tournaments. If either loses, the last teams in are in severe trouble. Also, a Wisconsin loss would cost the Badgers a No. 2 seed. I will post an update bracket should Sunday's results dictate.

Last seven in

(And just to protect myself against another Syracuse incident, here are Nos. 8, 9 and 10: 10. Saint Mary's; 9. Saint Joseph's; 8. Illinois State.)

7. South Alabama (24-6, 16-2, T1st Sun Belt East, 45 DCBI, 37 RPI): This team was a real beneficiary of the poor play of bubble teams from the last few days. It helps us forget that South Alabama lost on its homecourt to Middle Tennessee State in Monday's Sun Belt semifinals. Working in the Jaguars favor is that they dominated a decent Sun Belt, going 16-2 and defeating conference champion Western Kentucky twice along the way. South Alabama also defeated Mississippi State early in the season and dominated West Coast Conference champ San Diego on a neutral court. USA's three non-conference losses were all close and against top-100 teams. Among those was a double-overtime defeat at Vanderbilt.

6. Virginia Tech (19-13, 9-7, 4th in ACC, 60 DCBI, 53 RPI): Seth Greenberg made a loud case for his team after Saturday's two-point loss to North Carolina on Saturday. If you take the Hokies' season in its entirety, this is definitely not an NCAA team. But VaTech finished strong, winning four straight conference games before a one-point loss at Clemson. The Hokies then beat their first RPI top-50 team in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament with a win over Miami before the near-miss with top overall seed North Carolina. In the end, the weakness of this year's field of bubble teams made a 9-7 ACC team that finished strong a relatively easy inclusion.

5. Kentucky (18-12, 12-4, 2nd in SEC East, 53 DCBI, 57 RPI): The Wildcats could have made it easy on themselves with a win over Georgia on Saturday, but nothing has come easy for Billy Gillispie in his first season, so why should this? Still, 12 conference wins in the SEC's tougher division gives UK a seemingly ironclad case. Among the league wins are victories over Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, though all those were at home. UK has no quality wins out of conference, and that -- along with Patrick Patterson's injury -- will be what people point to should the Cats be excluded. Considering their competition, though, that seems unlikely.

4. Baylor (20-10, 9-7, T4th Big in 12, 36 DCBI, 42 RPI): The Bears begin my group of teams that I would have no qualms with should any be left out. The Bears lost a double-overtime first-round Big 12 Tournament game to league-worst Colorado on Thursday, jeopardizing their candidacy. In the Bears' favor is a 9-7 record in the tougher division of the Big 12 including wins at Texas A&M and at home against Kansas. Baylor also has performed well in losses to Kansas and Texas. The fact that the Bears have no marquee wins to point to may keep them out.

3. Oregon (18-13, 9-9, T5th in Pac-10, 47 DCBI, 58 RPI): The three Pac-10 bubble teams are the most confounding under consideration, but the Ducks appear to have the best case. Oregon recently beat Arizona State and also swept Arizona this season. The Ducks also have a win at fellow bubble team Kansas State. It would be very hard to justify the Ducks' exclusion if K-State and Arizona got in.

2. Kansas State (19-11, 10-6, 3rd in Big 12, 46 DCBI, 50 RPI): The Wildcats have not played well in the last month, and that will be the reason for their exclusion if it happens. In the Wildcats' favor are impressive wins over Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Kansas and a dearth of bad losses. Also, that 10-6 conference record looks nice, although in the weaker division, it probably means less than Baylor's 9-7. In the end, Kansas State is in just because I think the Cats are better than the teams behind them.

1. Arizona (18-14, 8-10, 7th in Pac-10, 31 DCBI, 38 RPI): I had a hard time exluding Arizona at Arizona State's expense, but the Wildcats have by far the best collection of quality wins among all bubble teams. The fact that their record -- 18-14 -- is an eyesore is testament to the difficulty of the schedule. It's hard to tell teams to go out and schedule tough, and then penalize them when the record reflects a tough slate. The Wildcats' 4-8 record in their last 12 games won't garner much sympathy from the committee, but among those eight are two two-point losses to UCLA and a one-point loss to Stanford. Just like K-State, I punched Zona's ticket because I think they're the best team remaining.

Last eight out

1. Ohio State (19-13, 10-8, 5th in Big Ten, 51 DCBI, 49 RPI): The Buckeyes didn't have a win over a top-50 RPI team until the last week of the regular season when they defeated Purdue and Michigan State, both at home. OSU does have three solid non-conference wins -- Syracuse, Cleveland State, Florida -- but none of those teams threaten this bracket any longer. When it comes down to it, you need to beat more than two NCAA teams to get into this bracket from a power conference.

2. Villanova (20-12, 9-9, T8th in Big East, 41 DCBI, 51 RPI): The awful play from the other bubble teams almost allowed the Wildcats to slip into the field. I'm trying to read the committee's minds a bit here, and I figure they feel like it's easier to keep a 9-9 Big East team out than the other teams above the Cats. If they do make the field, it will be thanks to strong play to finish the season, including wins over West Virginia, Connecticut and Syracuse.

3. Arizona State (19-12, 9-9, T5th in Pac-10, 49 DCBI, 83 RPI): Despite so many good wins, I just couldn't see the committee allowing a team with an 83 RPI get in the Tourney. ASU's soft non-conference scheduling included seven games against teams outside the RPI top 200. The committee is likely to smugly punish Herb Sendek for this schedule.

4. Massachusetts (21-10, 10-6, 3rd in Atlantic 10, 48 DCBI, 43 RPI): When the Minutemen lost to Charlotte on Thursday, it seemed like the Atlantic 10 would receive just one bid. Saint Joseph's and Temple made sure that wouldn't be the case, but that is little solace to Travis Ford's team. Wins over Syracuse, Boston College and Houston don't look quite so impressive now, and conference wins against Dayton and Rhode Island (twice) have also lost their luster. UMass went 0-4 against the A-10 teams who made the field.

5. Mississippi (21-10, 7-9, 3rd in SEC West, 42 DCBI, 46 RPI): The Rebels undermined terrific play out of conference with a 7-9 record in the SEC's weaker division. Then, when it seemed like things were heading its way, Andy Kennedy's team lost in the first round of the SEC Tournament to Georgia. That loss was the Rebels' sixth conference defeat at the hands of a top outside the RPI top 100.

6. Florida State (19-14, 7-9, T7th in ACC, 50 DCBI, 59 RPI): The Seminoles really needed to pull the upset of North Carolina but couldn't get it done, which means they are among the last handful of teams left out for the third year in a row. A 7-9 conference record teamed with an underwhelming non-conference profile made Leonard Hamilton's team a relatively easy omission.

7. Dayton (21-10, 8-8, T7th in Atlantic 10, 37 DCBI, 32 RPI): The Flyers started playing better when they got healthy toward the end of the season, but they really needed to be the one to knock off Xavier in the A-10 Tourney. Dayton's RPI will surely be the best of any team left out, but it's hard to include an 8-8 A-10 team who lost to George Washington, Duquesne and La Salle in a two-week period.

8. Virginia Commonwealth (24-7, 15-13, 1st in CAA, 65 DCBI, 54 RPI): I'm including the Rams simply because they were a topic of conversation earlier this week. VCU did win at Maryland, and while that's great for recruiting, it doesn't mean all that much this year. The Rams' only other win against an RPI top-100 team was against Houston in November. The CAA is not strong enough this season to justify inclusion of a second team, even if it won the league by three games. VCU's inclusion would be an unjustified bow to the mid-major. Teams like UMass and Dayton have much better cases if you want to go that route.

Big East breakdown

Georgetown (No. 3 seed, East): Barring a Wisconsin loss to Illinois in the Big Ten final, the Hoyas' loss to Pitt in its conference final is likely to cost them a No. 2 seed. The Hoyas were so impressive before the final, but their performance against the Panthers has to leave the committee doubting whether this is one of the nation's best eight teams.

Pittsburgh (No. 4 seed, Midwest): Of course no team improved it's seed this week at MSG as much as the Panthers. I have Pittsburgh as the top No. 4 seed, and I think it's unlikely that Jamie Dixon's team will jump to a No. 3 unless the committee seriously discounts Pitt's play during Fields' injury. It's important to also remember that this team hadn't played much better since Fields' return -- until this week.

Louisville (No. 4 seed, South): The Cardinals dropped all the way to a No. 4 seed with the two losses. Rest assured, no No. 1 seed will be happy to find them in a potential Sweet 16 matchup. The Cardinals' eight wins makes them easy to slip down to the fourth line.

Connecticut (No. 5 seed, West): The Huskies peaked at a No. 2 seed, but a quarterfinal loss to West Virginia had dropped them down to my last No. 5 seed. I had Marquette as the best No. 6, and UConn's dominance over MU keeps the Huskies as a No. 5, but the committee could decide to jump a team like Arkansas ahead of Jim Calhoun's team should it win the SEC title.

Marquette (No. 6 seed, Midwest): This seems to be the right line for Tom Crean's club after losing three of four games against Big East teams to finish the season. MU's win over NDU likely puts it ahead of the Irish, but the Eagles still figure to come in behind UConn.

Notre Dame (No. 6 seed, South): The Irish drop down to a No. 6 because they continue to prove unreliable away from the Joyce Center, which does not host any NCAA regionals. The second half performance against Marquette is another damning indictment of Mike Brey's ability to prepare for an opponent. Matchups will determine how far this team goes.

West Virginia (No. 8 seed, East): The Mountaineers ensured their bid with strong play in New York but the blowout to Georgetown probably prevented them from holding on to a No. 7 seed.

Villanova (second team out): See above.

Syracuse (ninth team out): The Orange, like UMass, needed one more win. There may not be eight teams between Jim Boeheim's team a spot in the field, but SU is clearly not going dancing.

Moving in (as at-larges): Gonzaga (switch from auto), Saint Joseph's, South Alabama (switch from auto), Xavier (switch from auto)

Moving out (as at-larges): Arizona State, Maryland, Massachusetts, Southern Illinois

No. 1 seeds:

1. North Carolina
2. Memphis
3. UCLA
4. Kansas

Again, you can switch Texas and Kansas should the Longhorns win on Sunday. Also, UCLA and Memphis' order could easily be reversed, but that wouldn't make any difference in the setup of the bracket. The committee probably has to decide if North Carolina is the top seed before the ACC final is complete. Therefore, I suspect the Tar Heels will be No. 1 overall regardless of the result against Clemson.

Bids by conference:

Big East: 7
Big 12: 6
Pac-10: 6
ACC: 5
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 4
Atlantic 10: 3
West Coast: 3
Missouri Valley: 2
Mountain West: 2
Sun Belt: 2

Will the Big 12 get six bids for the first time ever. It seems that a sixth team from that conference and Arizona from the Pac-10 are the two teams most susceptible to being left out of the field.

Again, I will update this projection on Sunday afternoon in the event of any surprising results. If you're the fan of a bubble team, you'll need to root hard for Wisconsin and Arkansas.