Here we go again.
Billy Wagner went on the DL and now the bullpen is in flames. Not on fire like in the good way; not "en fuego," like they say. More like burnt. Torched. Imploded.
Not good. Perhaps the most frustrating part is that the culprit seems to change with the day of the week. Sure, Aaron Heilman takes the most guff for it, and with his 12.46 ERA since Wagner got hurt, that's probably fair. Yet while it seems like everyone in the bullpen deserves some blame, only Joe Smith -- with a 15.43 ERA since Wagner became unavailable -- has been as bad as Heilman. Carlos Muniz allowed two earned runs in his only appearance in the span and Eddie Kunz has surrendered a run in 1 1/3 innings, but Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoeneweis and Duaner Sanchez have somehow combined to throw 10 1/3 innings while allowing only eight hits, two walks and two runs, plus Sanchez's first-pitch hit batsman on Thursday.
Those stats can be taken in any number of ways. You could suggest that they're proof positive that numbers are misleading, because anyone watching the games since Wagner last pitched Aug. 2 can tell you that the Mets' bullpen -- from top to bottom -- simply hasn't gotten it done. Or you could use them to show how Jerry Manuel's been using the wrong pitchers at the wrong time, relying too much on Heilman and Smith (who have combined for 10 outings over the stretch) when he should be giving more opportunities to the more effective pitchers. Alternately, you could dismiss the figures as part of a small sample size and insist that the Mets' recent bullpen struggles are merely a run of bad luck following an injury to their most effective reliever that forced a reliance on lesser hurlers.
But in any case, something's got to give. Smith, for one, probably could use a rest. The young pitcher is 0-2 with a 11.74 ERA with seven walks in 7 2/3 innings spaced out over 14 appearances. Either he's tired, he's not fooling anybody anymore or, most likely, some combination thereof. At the very least he could use a week off, and since he still has options on his contract, the Mets could send him to New Orleans for a mental and physical break and bring in a fresh arm to help bolster the bullpen until Wagner returns.
Kunz hasn't been outstanding in his first 2 1/3 big-league innings, but he should probably see some more opportunities. After all, he's a deceptive right-hander coming off a run of Minor League success, and one who mostly does not allow home runs. Mets fans have quickly soured on Muniz, but he showed promise in the Minors and might sort things out with a few more Major League outings. That's a tough process to watch, but at this point, how can it be any worse than seeing Heilman and Smith out there every night?
The biggest problem seems to be a Catch-22 situation. The bullpen never gets a rest because the bullpen isn't very good. It seems like every night, Manuel is forced to use three or four relievers, so no reliever gets a few consecutive days off. In turn, those relievers stay fatigued and pitch ineffectively, so Manuel has to use a quick hook, perpetuating the dilemma.
That's some catch, that Catch-22.
I was able to speak to former Met Heath Bell recently, and in the part of the interview embedded below, he spoke about the need for defined roles in the bullpen. Like many statistically bent baseball analysts, I've long poo-pooed that notion. To me, it seems like the best reliever should be used in the toughest spot, and it strikes me as ridiculous every time I see Mariano Rivera stop warming up just because the Yankees added a fourth run to their lead.
But all that said, relief pitchers, as Bell suggests, seem to thrive on regular work but not overwork. Defined roles seem to assure that -- everyone knows when he's expected to pitch and can prepare for it accordingly. When a closer like Wagner goes down, it throws the whole outfit into flux. Now, it seems like every pitcher must throw just about every night even if they don't end up pitching in the game. That can't be good for anyone.
So here's the solution, according to this guy, at least: Send Smith down to New Orleans, but don't use him there for at least a week. If he responds to the short break and pitches effectively afterwards, call him back up. If not, see you in 2009, Joe. Not entirely your fault, but somebody's got to go and you've got options and a rapidly inflating ERA.
In Smith's place, call up a rested arm from Triple-A. As Mike Salfino often points out, starters converted into relievers tend to improve in just about every statistical category, so perhaps prospect Jon Niese could be a nice option out of the Mets' 2008 bullpen. Or maybe they'd take a chance on Triple-A newcomer and hard-thrower Bobby Parnell, whom the Mets seem to value a lot more than anybody else does.
Since hindsight is 20/20, everyone is now killing Omar Minaya for not landing a reliever at the non-waiver trade deadline. That's an easy case to make right now, but keep in mind that if you had that shiny, happy reliever you wanted, you might not have Daniel Murphy hitting and walking at sublime rates. With the right mix of pitchers and an appropriate amount of rest, the Mets can succeed with bullpen arms already in the organization. It's just a matter of putting the right pieces together, something they clearly haven't done a good job of lately.