02/09/2009 4:30 PM ET
Bracket Junkie: Bearcats get the nod
Villanova, Cincinnati get big wins of the weekend
By Brendon Desrochers / SNY.tv
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Edit: I've made a couple of small changes with the bracket that put it better in line with bracketing principles. 1) I made the mistake of placing Dayton in a Dayton regional, which obviously can't happen. 2) I also decided that I'd be better off forcing a change in regional assignments to avoid having the "Opening Round" game winner play on Thursday. To resolve both issues, I switched Pittsburgh's pod to Dayton and Louisville's pod to Philadelphia. I've also moved Princeton opposite Connecticut and the "Opening Round" game winner opposite Pittsburgh. These principles become more crucial when we are looking at the final brackets and aren't as essential in February, but it's still good to go by the book right now.

Bracketing challenges: There were a few separate challenges in compiling this bracket, which was perhaps the most difficult of the season for me so far, since there was so much movement. The first challenge was placing the eight ACC teams, since six of them fell on seed lines that are on the same side of a bracket. That caused me to move Boston College up one and Virginia Tech down one from each team's true seed line.

The second challenge was due to the many losses that teams in the field suffered this week, including several surprising ones -- either because of the margin or the opponent. This is something that we'll get into in greater depth as we do the conference breakdowns, but I'll just point out a few of the specific challenges that this created. Marquette's loss to USF dropped the Golden Eagles into a position where they were vying with UCLA for the last No. 3 seed. How far does one move a team down when it losses a close game to a far inferior team on the road? Marquette won out over UCLA on this one. Another was Tennessee's narrow loss to Auburn, which dropped the Vols to the No. 8 seed line, a line that also includes Texas and Syracuse, two teams that also lost and were in poor form on Saturday. Gonzaga's 18-point loss at home to Memphis was another example of a team for which it was difficult to determine a true seed after a bad loss.

The third challenge was with teams near the at-large cut line who lost to superior teams on the road. Oklahoma State lost at Kansas and Michigan lost at Connecticut, both falling out of the bracket. Their demise wasn't so much punishment for losing to good teams on the road but simply a result of being so close to the cut line and seeing other teams -- notably Cincinnati, Wisconsin and Kansas State -- fly by with good wins.

Moving in: Kansas State, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Arizona

Moving in as Automatics: Princeton (Ivy), Long Beach State (Big West), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun)

Moving out: Georgetown, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Baylor

Moving out as Automatics: Cornell (Ivy), Cal State-Northridge (Big West), Jacksonville (Atlantic Sun)

The top four lines:

Moving up: Michigan State (3 → 2), Wake Forest (3 → 2), Memphis (4 → 3), Villanova (5 → 4)

Moving down: Clemson (2 → 3), Marquette (2 → 3), Xavier (3 → 4), Gonzaga (4 → 6)

With all of the surprising results this weekend, this conference breakdown will focus on which two results in each league had the most impact on the field.

Big East: Friday night delivered a shocker in Tampa, as the Bulls knocked off the Big East's last undefeated team in conference, toppling Marquette, 57-56. With an RPI of 138 even after the loss, USF's win is a stinging result for Marquette. Teams like Seton Hall and South Florida are actually pretty decent, but both had enough poor results out of conference (though Seton Hall had a couple good ones, too) that any loss to those teams is damaging while wins hardly help. This is the time when a league pays the piper for poor play out of conference, and the Big East certainly underachieved out of league play, especially at the bottom. That's why this loss drops MU to the bottom of the No. 3 seed line. The Eagles now travel to Villanova for a rematch of both teams' conference opener -- won by Marquette -- with positioning on the No. 3, 4 and 5 seed lines at stake.

Cincinnati's defeat of Georgetown in D.C. was the culmination of a long decline for the Hoyas, who have now lost five of six, with just a home win against Rutgers to the good. This was supposed to be the easy part of Georgetown's conference schedule with five games against teams that -- with the exception of Marquette -- weren't in the conference's top nine entering the season. A record of 3-2 was considered the minimum expectation, which is why the 1-4 result drops Georgetown from the field. The Bearcats have now won six of eight after starting league play 0-3. The schedule now brings Saint John's to the Queen City before consecutive Saturday tests against Pitt and Louisville. An NCAA Tournament berth is now a real possibility for Mick Cronin's club if it can get to 10-8 in league play.

Bid Breakdown:

Connecticut (No. 1)
Pittsburgh (No. 1)
Louisville (No. 2)
Marquette (No. 4)
Villanova (No. 4)
West Virginia (No. 7)
Syracuse (No. 8 )
Cincinnati (No. 12, moved to No. 11 for bracket balancing; second-to-last in)
Georgetown (third-to-last out)
Providence (14th-to-last out)

Brendon Desrochers is a contributor to SNY.tv. You can also find his pieces at BaselineStats.com. You can contract Brendon directly at brendon.desrochers@mlb.com.
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