Lance Stephenson will graduate from Lincoln High School in Brooklyn on Wednesday afternoon, his future awash in uncertainty. Just over 24 hours later, the NBA Draft will take place just 10 miles away at Madison Square Garden.
Had Stephenson graduated in 2004 instead of 2009, he likely would be hearing NBA commissioner David Stern utter his name from the podium Thursday night and preparing for life as a young multi-millionaire.
"Late lottery," said draft expert Chris Monter of Monter Draft News, referring to where Stephenson would have been picked if he were eligible. "He's talented but he has a lot of baggage and is perceived as a selfish player."
But because of the NBA age limit that requires players be 19 years old or a year removed from high school before they enter the league, Stephenson will be somewhere else next season. Somewhere other than the NBA.
"I think that with the one-and-done [rule], Lance Stephenson is a prime example of a kid who's getting hurt by the one-and-done," said Gary Charles, coach of the New York Panthers AAU program for which Stephenson played this spring.
"I don't see how you can justify this in the real world. If you're 18 years old you can choose to go out there and get a job. For whatever reason, that's your choice. How can you turn around and tell a kid he can't go out there and earn a living in what he's an expert in doing? We all know Lance Stephenson has been a basketball prodigy since he was in the seventh grade."
Even St. John's coach Norm Roberts, who actively recruited Stephenson for several years before ultimately backing off, agrees the age limit is a farce.
"I think if they can make it in the NBA, they should be allowed to go," Roberts said Monday. "Why are we holding back? We let tennis players do what they want to do."
Nicknamed "Born Ready" because of his sublime basketball skills, Stephenson has always dreamed of following fellow Lincoln grads Stephon Marbury and Sebastian Telfair into the NBA.
"That's what I'm playing hard for. That's one of my goals," Stephenson told me earlier this year. "If I make it to the NBA, that's going to change my whole life around."
During this first week of Wimbledon, officials showcased the play of Laura Robson, a 15-year-old from Britain who is the youngest player to play in the Wimbledon main draw since Martina Hingis, who was 14 in 1995. Stephenson is three years older than Robson, yet he cannot earn a living next season in the NBA?
As it stands now, Stephenson's immediate future remains a huge question mark. Will he spend next year on a college campus? If so, which one? Will he attend a prep school or junior college? Will he end up playing professionally overseas?
At this point, there are four or five red flags holding up Stephenson's recruitment. Memphis may be the only major Division I program still recruiting him, and Tigers head coach Josh Pastner doesn't have a clear picture on which direction Lance is leaning.
Stephenson's immediate future may be cleared up somewhat on Monday, when he and teammate Darwin "Buddha" Ellis are due in Brooklyn Criminal Court to face sexual assault charges connected to an incident in which they are alleged to have groped a 17-year-old girl outside Lincoln. Through his attorney, Alberto Ebanks, Stephenson has maintained his innocence from the outset.
A college coach who has seen Stephenson's transcript said his GPA is solid if not spectacular and that he should qualify academically assuming his standardized test score is high enough.
Yet independent of his academics, Stephenson could face eligibility issues related to the BornReady.tv Web site, which showcases an Internet documentary about Stephenson and his family. Even though the Stephensons maintain they have not profited at all from the site, it could be enough to trigger an NCAA investigation if Stephenson were to land on a college campus.
His on-court behavior, which has been termed selfish by some and which got him cut from the U.S. under-18 team by Davidson head coach Bob McKillop last summer, is another issue that may have scared some schools off. So has the looming presence of his father, Lance Stephenson Sr., who is directing the recruiting process.
A slew of colleges have reportedly bowed out of the recruitment, including Florida, Florida International, Kansas, Maryland, St. John's and possibly Arizona, leaving Memphis seemingly as the last team standing.
If a Providence or a Seton Hall jumped in now, they might have as good a shot at landing Lance as anybody.
"In my own personal opinion, I think there are some schools that are waiting to see how the court case turns out," Charles said.
"Personally, if I'm Lance Stephenson, I would probably go to prep school for a year, or go hire a trainer and go work out for year.
"Who are we kidding? [The age limit] is a joke. They can call it whatever they want. The NCAA, the NBA can call it whatever they want, it's a sham."