Analyzing Mets' payroll situation for 2025 and beyond following enormous Juan Soto signing

To get a handle on how well-positioned the Mets are to be aggressive this offseason -- even after landing Juan Soto on a record-setting deal -- you can do two things.

The first thing is to take a look at the massive amount of money that came off the books following the 2024 season.

The second thing is to recall what president of baseball operations David Stearns said at his end-of-season news conference.

"We've got financial flexibility," Stearns explained. "It means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That's an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity, and being aggressive in certain spaces.

"We also have to recognize that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis. So, you're right. We have a lot of money coming off the books.

"I would expect us to spend some of that -- a good portion of that -- to complement our team, to improve our team heading into next year. We're also not gonna do anything that hamstrings us in future years and prevents us from continually adding, supplementing to our core group."

The offseason has been given an early jolt with the Mets signing Soto to a 15-year deal for $765 million. But this is just the beginning.

To put things in simple terms: combine the Mets' terrific payroll situation, their emergence in 2024 as a legitimate World Series contender with a strong core of winning players, the willingness of owner Steve Cohen to outbid any team, and Stearns' measured aggression and savvy, and you get what should be an incredibly intriguing offseason even after the additions of Soto, Clay Holmes, and Frankie Montas.

As the Mets look to add more players they hope will help them to go from an NLCS trip in 2024 to a World Series trip (and victory) in 2025, here's how their payroll looks for next season and beyond...

SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2025

The Mets -- whose 2024 payroll was pockmarked by money owed to players who were no longer playing for them -- entered the offseason with around only $165 million committed for 2025, which was a figure that included the roughly $18 million earmarked for player benefits and money owed to players likely to be offered arbitration.

Now, their salary committed for 2025 is a shade over $248 million, per Cot's Baseball Contracts.

And even with the signings of Soto, Holmes, and Montas, the Mets still have lots of flexibility.

For reference, the Mets ended the 2024 season with a payroll of $356.2 million, which included the luxury tax penalties that were owed.

Now gone are the contracts of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, James McCann, and Omar Narvaez.

The Mets also have a number of big free agents, including Pete Alonso and Sean Manaea.

If Alonso is re-signed, it will add a large chunk to their payroll for 2025 and the next several years. But the Mets are in such good shape going forward that there's no reason to believe they can't bring back Alonso after signing Soto, and do a whole lot more.

WHAT WILL THE ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE AND 0-TO-3 PLAYERS MAKE?

The Mets have six eight arbitration-eligible players, but none of them are expected to command a salary beyond $4.3 million, per Cot's.

Those players are:

Paul Blackburn: $4.3 million
David Peterson: $4.15 million
Tyrone Taylor: $2.9 million
Jose Siri: $2.9 million
Tylor Megill: $2 million
Luis Torrens: $1.25 million

The above adds up to $17.5 million.

There are also the 0-to-3 players who are earning near the MLB minimum and aren't yet eligible for arbitration.

Those players include Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Dedniel Núñez, and Jose Butto.

HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD MORE PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?

More than enough.

The Mets, even after a very active first portion of the offseason, are not going to stop here. They're already over the first luxury tax threshold of $241 million, and obviously understand that they'll need to have payrolls above $300 million for the next several seasons before things again clear up for them in a big way (more on that below).

And Stearns seemed somewhat bemused earlier this offseason when he was asked whether the Mets would try to get under the luxury tax threshold this offseason in order to reset their penalty level.

Translation: It will be shocking if the Mets don't exceed the top luxury tax threshold again in 2025. The number for this coming season is $301 million.

People often understandably wonder why an owner like Cohen would care about exceeding the tax and paying the associated penalties.

The answer is that, despite Cohen's ability to easily pay the penalties, going over the luxury tax -- especially when doing so multiple years in a row and being $40 million or more over -- leads to draft pick penalties, including a team's top selection moving back 10 spots.

However, that's something the Mets are going to live with for now as they attempt to get closer to achieving their goal of sustainable success -- the kind of success that would include the constant churning out of starting-level players from the minors, mixed with smart, aggressive moves in free agency and via trade.

WHAT ABOUT EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?

Of all the Mets' younger players, the two it could make the most sense to discuss long-term deals with are Vientos and Alvarez.

The point for the Mets would be to lock in potential cornerstone players at below-market deals before they reach arbitration and free agency.

The reason Vientos and/or Alvarez might be open to it is because they would get a massive payday years before they would otherwise get it.

Vientos isn't arbitration-eligible for the first time until 2027.

Alvarez will be arbitration-eligible in 2026.

In a world where the Mets extend one or both of them this offseason, it will obviously add another chunk of money to their payroll obligations. But the minor impediment of increasing their yearly money owed over the next several seasons would be offset in a big way by having one or both players locked in on a team-friendly deal.

THE PAYROLL SITUATION IN 2026 AND BEYOND

Here are the Mets' projected 40-man roster salary obligations for luxury tax purposes from 2026 to 2029, via Cot's:

2026: $200.5 million
2027: $171.5 million
2028: $125.7 million
2029: $126.2 million

When looking at the above, after analyzing what the Mets could be looking at payroll-wise in 2025, it's even easier to see why they remain in an advantageous spot this offseason.

Now is the time for the Mets to continue be as aggressive as they've ever been when it comes to going after impact players.

The Mets are also obviously positioned very well to keep scouring the market for less expensive (in terms of both years and dollars) players they think are flying under the radar -- kind of how they pounced on Montas and Holmes this offseason after signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last offseason.

There is also New York's booming minor league system to take into account.

Because of injuries, the Mets didn't get any contributions from Drew Gilbert or Jett Williams in 2024. That should change in 2025 -- a year that could also see the debut of hard-throwing right-hander Brandon Sproat, and include the debuts of fellow right-handers Nolan McLean and Blade Tidwell.

When you consider the Mets' existing core that now boasts Soto, their strong payroll situation, and the expected emergence of more young impact players in 2025, you can see their plan for sustainable winning coming together. They took a huge step in 2024, but an even bigger one could be coming.