Deep Dive on Mets prospect J.T. Ginn, a 'bulldog' who could soon be a rotation staple

After selecting outfielder Jarred Kelenic with the 6^th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, the Mets had some hope that Mississippi high school right-hander J.T. Ginn would fall to their second pick that was eventually used on Simeon Woods-Richardson. 

They had scouted Ginn heavily and wanted to add the talented pitcher who was ranked as the 33^rd best prospect in the 2018 draft by MLB Pipeline.

As it goes in a draft, you can love a talent, but if they are taken before you can pick there isn’t a whole lot you can do about it. That happened here when the Los Angeles Dodgers selected Ginn in the first round at No. 30 overall.

Way more often than not, first round picks are drafted and signed by the organization that picks them. Ginn ended up not signing with the Dodgers and opted to attend the SEC powerhouse program that is Mississippi State.

Ginn had a big freshman year for the Bulldogs with a 3.13 ERA in 86.1 innings, and struck out 105 batters. This led to him being named the National Freshman of the Year. Ginn’s decision to pass on signing at the 30^thoverall pick looked like it was trending towards being the right call.

He entered the 2020 season as a draft-eligible sophomore who could end up going high in the draft with another good season. Unfortunately, Ginn only made one start before having to undergo Tommy John surgery in March of 2020, which put a cloud over his draft prospects.

Why the Mets drafted Ginn

The Mets' area scout for Mississippi is Jet Butler, and he had built a relationship with Ginn dating back to high school when the Mets were hoping to get him. They also solicited the opinions of former college teammates of Ginn’s in Jake Mangum and Cole Gordon, who were both selected by the Mets one year earlier in the 2019 MLB Draft.

During the draft process, Mets vice president of amateur and international scouting Tommy Tanous reminded the department to not lose track of Ginn. Tanous believed Ginn would have been the second or third best college arm had he been healthy and that he may have ended up going in the top 10 overall picks.

The Mets selected high school outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong with the 19^th overall pick and signed him for full slot. For the second time, the organization was hoping that Ginn would make it to their second pick. This time it worked out and the Mets landed Ginn with the 52^nd overall pick and ended up signing him to an over slot bonus of $2.9 million.

This was a bit of a repeat of the 2019 draft strategy, where the Mets went with a high school bat in the first round with Brett Baty and went significantly over slot to draft a falling pitching talent in Matt Allan. 

It is a creative way to utilize your draft pool, and the Mets will have the opportunity to be as creative as ever in the 2022 MLB Draft, where they are slated to have six of the top 100 picks.

Scouting Report

Ginn spent the 2021 season building arm strength back up, and the Mets were satisfied that he made it through his first pro season without a hitch health-wise. He made 18 starts between Low-A St. Lucie and High-A Brooklyn and posted a 3.03 ERA across 92 innings pitched.

When Ginn is right, he is a bulldog competitor who is up to 97 mph with turbo sink that produced a 64 percent ground ball rate in Brooklyn. His slider is a plus pitch with spin efficiency, and is the pitch that he gets the most swings and misses on. 

The development of his changeup, which flashes above average with natural fade, will be important. He simply needs to throw it more and get more comfortable with it.

While Ginn may not be a guy who strikes a ton of batters out (7.9 K/9), he is the type who consistently induces weak contact and ground balls. You will want a good infield defense behind him for his starts.

Ginn told us this past summer on Mets Prospective that he likens his arsenal and movement profiles to former Met Marcus Stroman. 

While Stroman throws more different pitches than Ginn does, the baseline of their repertoires and skill sets make it a pretty apt comparison.

What’s Next?

After a successful and healthy first pro season, I would expect Ginn to open the 2022 season with Double-A Binghamton.

I ranked Ginn as the top arm in the Mets' system and the fifth ranked prospect in my latest Top 20 Prospect ranking with an MLB ETA of 2023. I will be looking to see the strides he makes with his changeup and where his velocity is at come this spring. 

This is an advanced arm who may not quite profile as that frontline starter, but I believe he could slot in as a No. 3 or No. 4 type starter you’d feel confident handing the ball to every fifth day in the not-too-distant future.