Despite rotation need, Madison Bumgarner to Mets seems unlikely

A new starting pitcher hit the market on Thursday, when the Arizona Diamondbacks designated erstwhile postseason star Madison Bumgarner for assignment.

According to league sources, the Mets will do their homework on Bumgarner -- but honestly, it’s hard to see that homework leading to the conclusion that the team should sign him.

The Mets rotation has taken several severe hits this season, with Jose Quintana out for months after undergoing rib surgery, Justin Verlander yet to debut because of a teres major strain, Carlos Carrasco on the injured list with a bone spur in his elbow, and Max Scherzer facing a 10-game suspension for violating the league’s rules on foreign substances.

Arizona cut Bumgarner despite owning him nearly $35 million of a five-year, $85 million contract. He has a 10.26 ERA this season, and his fastball is averaging 89.5 miles per hour.

A deeper dive into his numbers -- the homework that the Mets will surely do -- is just as troubling. According to baseballsavant.com, Bumgarner is in the 30th percentile in MLB in hard hit percentage, the fourth percentile in strikeout percentage, the seventh percentile in whiff percentage, and so on.

For all his accomplishments, Bumgarner’s current profile does not suggest that he can currently take the ball every fifth day for a big league team. It’s probably safe to expect that the Mets will conclude the same.

Meanwhile, the Mets will await MLB’s decision on Scherzer, but everyone in baseball knows that a suspension is coming.

Scherzer’s vehement denials that he used any substance other than rosin during Wednesday’s game against the Dodgers will not prove relevant to the discipline issue.

According to a memo distributed by the league to clubs this spring, “player use of rosin must be consistent within the requirements and expectations of the Official Baseball Rules. When used excessively or otherwise misapplied …. rosin may be determined by the umpires to be a prohibited foreign substance, the use of which may subject a player to discipline.”

In other words: Intent does not matter. If the umps determine that a pitcher’s hand is too sticky, the specific substance is irrelevant.

Scherzer’s comments about using rubbing alcohol to wipe off the rosin between innings won’t help him, either. As two sources, one a pitcher, suggest, alcohol and rosin can create more stickiness.

The upshot of all this is that the Mets will have another short-term rotation opening. Joey Lucchesi will be needed, as will Jose Butto, if the Mets can find a way to get him back on the roster so soon after optioning him.

Scherzer has the right to appeal, so the suspension won’t begin right away. Once he is suspended, the Mets will have to play short with a 25-man roster.