The annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus were released Tuesday, and the Yankees are projected to have the best record in all of baseball, leading in multiple statistical categories.
Here's the basics on the projections, via BP:
Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not "pick" a team to "win" any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations. Any one of those outcomes is possible. However, some of them, as you can see, are more likely than others.
By the numbers…
The Yankees win/loss record is 99.3-62.7. If that stands true, the Bombers should have a comfortable 10 game lead over the projected second place Toronto Blue Jays with a record of 89.6-72.4. Their big rivals, the Boston Red Sox, are projected to finish fourth, with the Yanks having an almost 18 game lead.
The Yankees are simulated to have a better record than their counterparts in Queens, with the Mets having a projected win/loss record of 97.2-64.8. The Mets are projected to have the third best record in baseball, behind the Los Angeles Dodgers and Yanks.
The PECOTA projections also include the amount of runs teams are expected to score and allow, and projected percentages when it comes to a team's chances to make the playoffs, win the division, and win the World Series.
Here's more on the Yankees projections:
- Projected runs scored: 731 (fourth-most in MLB)
- Projected runs allowed: 568 (fewest in MLB)
- Playoff percentage: 98.4 percent (highest in MLB)
- Division percentage: 90.8 percent (Toronto is at 45% and the Tampa Bay Rays are at 26.9%) - World Series percentage: 17.8 (highest in MLB)