Sources weigh in on Daniel Jones' do-or-die third season with Giants

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had a rookie season filled with hope and promise. He played so well, that by the end of that first year in 2019, his future seemed bright.

Then came Year 2 in 2020, and it all came crashing down amid a a tumultuous, injury-plagued year. He seemed to regress in the eyes of many. He led one of the worst offenses in the league.

There were reasons for that – the injuries, the crumbling offensive line, the lack of playmakers on the NY Giants -- but that doesn’t change Jones’ new reality. The Giants need him to prove he’s a worthy franchise quarterback in Year 3.

If not, they’ll have to at least consider moving on with someone else.

“There’s no choice. Time runs out quick on quarterbacks in this league,” said an NFL general manager. “If they don’t see it this year, I guarantee you they’ll be thinking about what’s next.”

That is the cold, hard reality of the NFL and why this is a make-or-break season for the Giants’ 24-year-old franchise quarterback, whether they admit it or not. There are decisions looming in the offseason, like whether to pick up the fifth-year option on Jones’ contract (at a probably cost of more than $20 million for 2023) and whether to open negotiations on what would be a lucrative contract extension.

And looming over that is the two first-round picks the Giants have in the next draft – their own and the one they got from the Bears, when they traded down from 11 to 20 in April. Both of those picks could be relatively high, which could put the Giants in position to move up for a quarterback at the top of the draft.

All of that, of course, depends on what Jones does this season – what he proves he really is. To secure his future, he needs to show that when Dave Gettleman took what some thought was a leap and grabbed Jones with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft that he made the right call.

“We certainly hope so,” Gettleman said near the start of training camp. “He’s got all the physical skills. He’s got all the mental skills. His decision making is quicker out here. He’s getting rid of the ball quicker. You see he’s throwing the ball well. I think he's making progress.

“And like every other young kid, I think we'll have a pretty good idea when the season is over.”

Right now, the Giants think they have a “pretty good idea,” but the jury is still out on Jones around the NFL. He was good as a rookie, completing 61.9 percent of his passes for 3,027 yards 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 13 games. His 18 fumbles were alarming, but many believed that could be fixed with experience and a better offensive line.

And last year, he did cut way down on the turnovers – just 23 total, down from 30 the year before. But otherwise his season was a mess. He completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,943 yards and only 11 touchdown passes in 14 games (with 10 interceptions). The Giants’ offense averaged just 17.5 points and ranked a dismal 31^st in the league.

But how much of that is because of Jones is a matter of debate. Saquon Barkley, the focal point of their offense, was lost in Week 2. The offensive line was a mess. He didn’t have a true No. 1 receiver. His best receiver, Sterling Shepard, missed four games. And his most reliable target – Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram – was a drop-machine who was hardly reliable at all.

And Jones was hurt. He sprained his ankle during a game in Cincinnati on Nov. 29. He tried to come back after missing a week, then pulled his hamstring against the Cardinals. He only missed one more game, but he clearly wasn’t himself during the month of December at all.

“I think last year was a total waste for him,” said an NFC scout. “He was clearly more hurt than they were letting on. Losing Barkley destroyed their offense in the first half. And let’s face it: He had no reliable receivers. He was running for his life. So I’d throw last year out.

“But time doesn’t stop. Even if all that happens again, the Giants still need to know. Jones has to rise above it.”

The Giants, of course, went to great lengths to make sure last year doesn’t happen again and that Jones will have the tools to succeed. They signed Kenny Golladay to a four-year, $72 million contract, giving Jones a No. 1 receiver and the kind of big target (6-4, 214) every quarterback needs. They added the speedy John Ross (one year, $2.25 million), drafted the speedy and shifty Kadarius Toney in the first round, and signed sure-handed tight end Kyle Rudolph (two years, $12 million), too.

There are obvious questions about the offensive line. And the summer health of all their new players has led the Giants to strongly hint their offense could get off to a slow start.

But …

“The pieces are there for a bigger season,” the scout said. “If (Jones) is not a heck of a lot better, it’ll be hard to argue he’s not a mistake.”

That’s why many around the NFL thought the Giants traded down in the first round and acquired that second first-round pick in 2022 – as an insurance policy against Jones. Gettleman, of course, said that Jones’ status was “not even a thought” when he made that deal. Both publicly and privately he has remained steadfast in his belief in the quarterback he chose to be Eli Manning’s heir.

“We believe in Daniel,” Gettleman said. “We’re excited to see what he's going to do in the second year in the system. Before this last year, it was his third (offensive) system in three years. You know how diligent the kid is. He works just as hard on the field as he does off the field. He's more comfortable, he’s more prepared.

“I think there are just so many positives about him,” added offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. “Start with who he is as a person, his approach, his competitive spirit, his smarts, his toughness, all of that. And then he has athletic ability. He's big, he can throw the ball, he can move around and make plays with his feet. I think we've all seen that.”

The Giants think they have, but around the NFL, many aren’t so sure. In general, people around the league seemed much higher on Jones’ potential when he was a rookie than they are now.

“I do see a little of what (the Giants) see in him,” said another NFL scout. “He was probably over-drafted (when the Giants took him sixth overall in 2019), but quarterbacks get over-drafted a lot. If you need one, you have to grab one no matter where you are (in the draft) and that’s the position they were in.

“But his draft position isn’t the point anymore. The only thing that matters is whether he’s a franchise quarterback. There are times I think the talent is there. There have been some signs. But in Year 3 he has to show it consistently. Time’s up. There has to be more from him on the field.”

And what if there’s not? The result of that could be like an earthquake in the Giants’ organization, especially since it’s unlikely the 70-year-old Gettleman would be allowed to pick another franchise quarterback. And surely a failure by Jones would lead to a shakeup on Judge’s staff, particularly on the offensive side. And though Judge’s status seems secure in the organization, there’s always the chance that a new GM will bring in a new coach.

Technically, the Giants could still buy some time. Jones is under contract through 2022, so the Giants could put off the big decision until next season. But there is the matter of his fifth-year option, which must be decided on by next May.

And then there are those two first-round picks in the 2022 draft.

“They could end up in a position like the Jets faced,” said the NFL general manager. “They liked (Sam) Darnold, but they felt like they couldn’t pass up the opportunity (to draft Zach Wilson) at No. 2. And they were right. If you know you have your franchise quarterback, that’s one thing. But if you don’t, if you aren’t sure, you can’t pass up an opportunity when it’s there. First of all, there just aren’t that many true franchise quarterbacks. And second, getting a quarterback on a rookie contract is huge for your salary cap (space).

“So if the Giants don’t know about Jones, and they’re sitting on two picks in, say, the Top 15 next year, how do they not at last try and move up?”

But for whom? It’s too early to even guess. No one thought Wilson would end up the No. 2 overall pick before the college football season last year, just like no one pegged Joe Burrow for No. 1 the year before. The only sure thing is that at least one projected franchise quarterback – and probably more – will emerge.

“Someone will be there. There’ll probably even be a few in the Top 10 like there every year,” the GM said. “If they don’t have an answer on Jones – or if they don’t know the answer – they won’t be able to say ‘No’.”

The Giants have tried hard to shield Jones from such talk this summer, to not publicly buy in to the “make-or-break” narrative. They know decisions at quarterback are looming. Though as co-owner John Mara said, “Hopefully he'll make it an easy decision for us by the end of the year.”

It should be, because after three NFL seasons, after two seasons in the same offensive system, and with all the new talent the Giants have put around him, there shouldn’t be any excuses. The Giants really, truly believe in Jones. Gettleman believes he has set the Giants up for the future with a quarterback the way Ernie Accorsi did when he traded up in the draft for Manning in 2004.

Of course, Manning didn’t really prove they were right until his fourth season – 2007. But the NFL and its quarterback economy are just different now. Quarterback decisions are made sooner than ever.

“At the very least, another year like last year will have to make them question their faith in him,” said the NFL GM. “If he’s not what they hoped, they’re going to have to look at whatever options they might have.”

“By Year 3, you know,” said another NFL executive. “Hell, a lot of quarterbacks today show themselves by Year 2. But if they haven’t by the third year, that has to tell you something.

“And considering quarterbacks are getting $40 million a year now, you better listen.”