Stay or Go: Should Mets bring Drew Smith back for 2024?

With the exception of Edwin Diaz and Brooks Raley, the entire Mets bullpen is in flux entering the offseason.

Raley's $6.5 million club option for 2024 will almost certainly be picked up, but Adam Ottavino -- who has a player option for $7.75 million -- said after the season that he was unsure whether he would exercise it or hit the open market.

Beyond that, a slew of the Mets' depth relievers -- Trevor Gott, Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod, and John Curtiss -- are eligible for arbitration, but far from slam dunks to be offered arbitration.

That brings us to Drew Smith.

The 30-year-old is entering his final season of arbitration, and is projected to earn $2.3 million in 2024.

Should the Mets bring him back?

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET SMITH GO

Smith is coming off the worst season of his career, and his numbers -- especially the walks -- aren't pretty.

In 56.1 innings over 62 appearances, Smith had a 4.15 ERA (4.55 FIP) and a bloated 1.40 WHIP while striking out 60 (9.6 per nine) and walking 29. Smith also continued to have problems with the long ball, serving up seven homers after allowing nine in 2022 and seven in 2021.  

Interestingly, while Smith still had issues keeping the ball in the park, his HR/9 rate was actually the best it's been since his rookie season. It was 1.1 per nine in 2023 after being 1.8 per nine in 2022 and 1.5 per nine in 2021.

Taking a deeper look, Smith got crushed this past season on his slider, with batters hitting .318 with a .614 slugging percentage against what was his main secondary offering. Smith's slider wasn't a huge weapon in 2022, but he had a lot more success, with hitters batting .234 with a .455 slugging percentage against it. 

Smith was also well below average when it came to preventing hitters from barreling him up, and getting hitters to chase.

It's clear that Smith -- at least until he fixes whatever ailed him in 2023 -- isn't someone a contender can use in a setup role.

WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP SMITH

Although he has his shortcomings, Smith has been a solid reliever during his five-year career.

In 178.2 innings over 172 appearances, Smith has a 3.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 9.0 strikeouts per nine. 

Smith's ability to miss bats has also increased the last two seasons. He averaged 7.8 strikeouts per nine from 2018 to 2021, but has averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine over the last two seasons.

His fastball is also a serious weapon when it's right.

Of the 1,082 pitches Smith threw in 2023, 663 of them were four-seam fastballs, and hitters slashed a minuscule .169 against it with a .339 slugging percentage -- hitters slugged .427 against it in 2022 and .329 against it in 2021.

If Smith -- who fired seven scoreless outings to wrap his 2023 campaign -- can continue to harness his fastball and refine his slider, he has the ability to put it all together and become someone who can be trusted at the back end of the bullpen. 

VERDICT

For years, Smith was betrayed by his health. And coming off the season where he finally stayed on the field all year, the Mets have little to lose by rolling with him one more time.

Regardless of what they decide with Smith, the Mets are going to have to add multiple high-leverage relievers to bolster a unit led by Diaz, Raley, and perhaps Ottavino.

If Smith is part of the revamped bullpen in 2024, he'll start out in a much lower-leverage role than the one he was thrust into in 2023 -- but he has the upside to earn more trust.