Why Yoshinobu Yamamoto should be Mets' top free agent target -- over even Shohei Ohtani

If you had polled a group of thousands of Mets fans before the 2023 season, asking them whether they wanted the team to sign Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason, some of them would've asked who Yamamoto was.

Many others would've of course known that Yamamoto was the best pitcher in Japan -- a young ace who was a season away from being posted for MLB teams. 

Still, that group would've likely laughed a bit before choosing Ohtani as the player they wanted the Mets to sign. And that would've made all the sense in the world.

Now?

Ohtani's future -- at least as it pertains to him continuing to be the unicorn that made him the best player in baseball history -- is up in the air.

And it isn't just that Ohtani underwent elbow surgery that will prevent him from pitching in 2024 -- it's that this is his second Tommy John-like procedure. 

Could Ohtani be back on the mound for the start of the 2025 season -- his age-30 campaign -- resembling the pitcher he was over the last few seasons? Sure. But he could also return in seriously diminished fashion, like Mike Clevinger or Noah Syndergaard.

There are success stories for pitchers who had TJS twice, such as Nathan Eovaldi. But with Ohtani possibly receiving a salary that will pay him $45 million or $50 million annually for 10 seasons or more, it's an incredibly risky proposition -- especially since he'll be attempting to rehab his elbow in 2024 while focusing his attention on hitting.

Would it be amazing for the Mets to land Ohtani, who was an MVP candidate this season just based on his hitting alone? Absolutely.

But when you factor in the money Ohtani will command, the length of the contract he could get, the uncertainty surrounding his future on the mound, and the fact that he's strictly a DH when he's not on the mound, it's not hard to think the prudent decision is to take a pass.

Enter Yamamoto.

Before we dig deep on Yamamoto, though, remember that hypothetical Ohtani or Yamamoto poll? I ran it.

And with 2,814 votes cast, people chose Yamamoto -- 63 percent to 37 percent.

I obviously agree with the 34 percent, which is why I posed the question and why I'm writing this article.

So, why should Yamamoto be the Mets' top free agent target this offseason -- over Ohtani and literally everyone else on the market?

The reasons are myriad. Let's break it down...

Age and Dominance

Yamamoto will be entering his age-25 season in 2024, meaning he is smack in his prime. And while he has been an absolutely dominant force during his seven-year career in Japan, he's taken it to another level over the last three seasons, posting an ERA of sub-1.70 in each one.

This season, Yamamoto had a 1.21 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with a home run rate of 0.1(!) and a walk rate of 1.4 per nine as he struck out 165 batters in 164 innings over 23 starts for the Orix Buffaloes.

For comparison, in his last season pitching in Japan, Kodai Senga -- who was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year during his rookie season -- had a 1.89 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with a home run rate of 0.4 per nine as he struck out 159 batters in 148 innings over 23 starts.

Senga has a terrific fastball and game-changing ghost fork, but evaluators believe Yamamoto is better.

He has a fastball and splitter, but also possesses an outrageous curve and a cutter. Yamamoto's impeccable command is also among the best in the world.

Cost

There will be a separate posting fee (in addition to the contract) for the team that signs Yamamoto. But Mets owner Steve Cohen would likely yawn at it.

And while the bidding for Yamamoto should be fierce and could go beyond $200 million, he could get less than half of what Ohtani gets.

While some will scoff at the cost issue as it pertains to Ohtani, claiming that it doesn't matter because Cohen can afford it, I'll point out that it does matter. Cohen will not spend at an insane level on free agents year in and year out (nor should he), and the luxury tax and accompanying penalties hit not just his wallet but the Mets' draft situation.

As it pertains to Yamamoto, giving any pitcher a contract worth more than $100 million, let alone $200 million or more, is a big risk. But it's one the Mets -- who have already scouted Yamamoto extensively -- should be willing to take.

And on the open market this offseason, Yamamoto -- despite almost certainly requiring the biggest outlay for any pitcher not named Ohtani this offseason -- makes tons more sense than other pending starting pitcher free agents (such as Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, and Eduardo Rodriguez) and any of the pending position player free agents.

Need

The Mets need to add more offensive punch (something they didn't do before the 2023 season), but there are three reasons why going all-in on a free agent starting pitcher this offseason makes more sense than doing so for a hitter.

First, the Mets have a gaping hole at the top of their rotation with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer gone.

There are only two members of the rotation (Senga and Jose Quintana) who can be relied on in 2024, and none of the team's impact pitching prospects (there aren't that many of them anyway) are especially close.

Second, the Mets should have an influx of high-impact position players ready to contribute by the middle of next season. That includes Drew Gilbert and Luisangel Acuna. Beyond those two, Jett Williams has a chance to debut in 2024, and should absolutely be ready to contribute by 2025.

Third, the only hitter on the market it makes sense to pursue strongly is Ohtani. And we've already gone over that situation.

Other position players who will be available include Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. But both of them are high-risk players who will be attached to qualifying offers.

Bellinger played so badly in 2022 that he was non-tendered, and Chapman hasn't been a star-level player since 2020.

***

Yamamoto and the Mets are a perfect fit in many ways.

That doesn't mean that Ohtani in orange and blue wouldn't be incredible. This is the best player ever we're talking about here.

But Yamamoto simply makes more sense. Now it's up to the Mets to make it a reality.