Will the Knicks shoot more threes under Tom Thibodeau?

Plus, Thibodeau pushes back against the idea that he plays his players too many minutes

8/7/2020, 7:18 PM
Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Tom Thibodeau looks on during the first quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Target Center. / Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Tom Thibodeau looks on during the first quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Target Center. / Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve watched the NBA over the past decade, you probably know Tom Thibodeau’s reputation: he’s hard-driving, intense and wears his players out.

Whether that is accurate or not depends on who you ask and his or her perspective on the matter.

Another facet of his reputation? He hasn’t modernized his offense and is averse to the 3-point shot.

The new Knicks coach addressed both topics on a recent interview with ESPN Radio.

Here’s Thibodeau on the idea that he isn’t comfortable with his team’s embracing the 3-point shot in the same way that other modern offenses have:

“When I went in to Minnesota they had averaged 16 3-point attempts per game. When I left, we were up to averaging close to 30. Along with that, the rest of the league had also gone up. The average 3-point attempts went from 28 to 30 to 32 during that span. The league changed,” Thibodeau said on The Michael Kay Show. “I think if you went back 10 years ago, (teams played) three out, two in (lineups) – two traditional bigs. Then went to four out, one in (lineups) … now (there’s) five out lineups. Most teams have at least one center now that can shoot the three to open the floor to set up drive and kick.”

Thibodeau believes in quality over quantity when it comes to 3-point shooting.

“If you’re getting layups and you’re getting to the free-throw line and obviously you’re trying to create as many corner 3-point attempts as you can - that’s how you win,” Thibodeau said. “And then defensively, obviously, you try to take those things away and get your opponent to take long twos.

“So you have to figure out what gives your (team) the best chance to win and try to approach it that way…. You just don’t want to shoot high-volume threes that are not good threes. When you look at Milwaukee, they take very good threes. If you look at Golden State, they’re similar.

“Sometimes if you’re taking high-volume bad threes, you’re going to get beat. It’s going to compromise your defense. I think the type of threes, the type of shots, understanding the value of shots, that’s an important part of winning.”

Both the Knicks and Timberwolves were in the bottom third of the league in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions during Thibodeau’s time in Minnesota. But in Thibodeau’s second season with the Timberwolves, the club ranked fourth overall in offensive efficiency. Minnesota ranked third overall in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions this season but finished the truncated season with a lower winning percentage than the Knicks.

Will New York shoot more threes under Thibodeau?

The club didn’t have many strong perimeter shooters last season, when they ranked 28th in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. Based on what Thibodeau has said, that ranking should increase if New York acquires players who can shoot.

“I think when you study a team, you have to figure out what are the strengths and weaknesses of your team; what gives you the best chance of winning each and every night,” he said. “You want everyone to play to their strengths and cover up their weaknesses.”

MINUTES BASED ON MATCHUPS

Thibodeau has also pushed back against the idea that he plays his players too many minutes. Here’s what he said in the interview last week:

“If you went back 10 years ago, you would see that all the wings were playing 38-39 minutes. There was (Kevin) Durant, there was LeBron (James), (James) Harden, Jimmy Butler, Kobe (Bryant) at the time was playing big minutes. You usually positionally matched up. So when your opponent’s star player was on the floor, your star player would matched up with him.

“You’re not going to have your backup wing guarding LeBron when he’s on the floor. You do that for five or six minutes could cost you 10 points so you’re reducing your chances of winning. I think along with that, now the minutes have gone down. So you’re looking at 36, 35, 34 (minutes for top players), so now your player should be matched up at the same point. So I think that’s part of it.

“I think the other part of load management is people don’t know what you do in practice. There’s a lot of ways to manage that as well. What are you doing in practice? Do you have contact? Do you not have contact? Do you have some for the guys that are playing heavy minutes so they’re not doing as much in practice? There’s a lot of ways to manage it. I think you have to be aware of it and make sure you’re watching what’s going on and your listening to your sports scientists and your trainers and getting input from the players as well.”

During each of Thibodeau’s two full seasons in Minnesota, two Timberwolves ranked in the top 10 in minutes per game. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns ranked in the top five in minutes per game in 2016-17, both playing around 37 minutes a game. Wiggins and Jimmy Butler were in the top 10 in minutes per game in 2017-18, averaging around 36 minutes per game.

The minutes totals may be high when compared to other players around the league, but they are close to the range of minutes that Thibodeau referenced when he said, generally, that minutes have gone down recently.

Thibodeau has also talked about adjusting his approach to practice. The Knicks are considering adding a significant amount of player-development coaches, which should help Thibodeau and his staff differentiate how young players and veterans practice between games.

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