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Baseball Prospectus

Jason Parks and the Baseball Prospectus prospect crew ranked the Mets' farm system the 8th-best in baseball this year, up from #10 last year.

Two of their comments:

State of the System:?Solid blend of pitching and positional talent, ranging from high-risk/high-reward types at the lower levels to safer high-floor prospects nearing the major-league level.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Other Prospect Rankings, Toby Hyde
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Jason Parks and his merry crew at Baseball Prospectus are out with their Top 10 Mets Prospects for 2014. Please go read their writeups as they are perhaps the most detailed in the industry.

1. RHP Noah Syndergaard

2. C Travis d?Arnaud

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Other Prospect Rankings, Toby Hyde
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Jason (Professor) Parks took some Mets questions in his Baseball Prospectus chat yesterday. He likes Noah Syndergaard (Thor) a lot.

Thor Questions and AnswersGWesterby (Brooklyn): Taillon or Syndergaard?

Jason Parks: Syndergaard. I think Syndergaard belongs in the discussion for top ten prospects in the game. #rig

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Toby Hyde
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At Baseball Prospectus, Jason Parks and friends put together a list of Prospects who exceeded their expectations in 2013. It's a list skewed in favor of younger players at lower levels as six of the 10 guys played in the South Atlantic League and just two of the players saw time in AA.

I have a few issues with the writeup on Matz.

Chris Mellon begins:

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Steve Matz, Toby Hyde
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Zach Mortimer at Baseball Prospectus wrote up Noah Syndergaard based on his first-hand observations today. He likes Thor a lot.

His comments on Syndergaard's off-speed pitches are most interesting.

CurveballVelocity: 77-80

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Noah Syndergaard, Toby Hyde
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At Baseball Prospectus, head prospect man Jason Parks did did his thing and talked a little Mets' baseball.

redguy12588 (Pittsburgh): What did the Pirates give up in Herrera, a utility infielder or an occasional all-star 2nd baseman?

Jason Parks: I don't see an all-star future; rather, I think Herrera has the potential to play as a regular at the highest level. That's a pretty high ceiling given the fact that he plays an up the middle position.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Dilson Herrera, Noah Syndergaard, Toby Hyde
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Zach Mortimer writing at Baseball Prospectus reviewed the NL teams' first round picks in 2013.

His comment on Dominic Smith, who I don't think he's seen in person,

"....everyone that I?ve spoken with believes in Smith, and believes that he will hit for both average and power. Smith profiles as a potential middle-of-the-order bat who will be a staple in the Mets organization going forward."
Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Dominic Smith, Toby Hyde
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At Baseball Prospectus, Jason Parks has his list of the 50 best prospects currently in the minor leagues. He slots Noah Syndergaard at #23 and Travis d'Arnaud at #28.

His comment on Syndergaard:

Prospect Trajectory:?Up; has the combination of size and stuff to continue to climb the prospect ranks; a strong second half could propel him into top 10 discussion this offseason.
And d'Arnaud:

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Noah Syndergaard, Travis d'Arnaud, Toby Hyde
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Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus has a new mid-season Top-50 Prospect list up. Before we get to the rankings, the beginning of his introduction is extremely important: "Doing a midseason prospect list is an exercise in managing hype and dealing with insufficient information. Half-seasons mean small sample sizes..."

Goldstein moves Zack Wheeler up from #30 to #14 and Matt Harvey, who was #25 pre-season, remains at #25. No new Mets joined the list.

In terms of pitchers, the only guys ranked ahead of Wheeler are RHP Dylan Bundy (#3 - BAL), RHP Taijuan Walker (#6 - SEA), RHP Gerrit Cole (#12 - PIT), and RHP Jose Fernandez (#13 - MIA). Between Wheeler and Harvey lie Julio Teheran (#16 - ATL), RHP Archie Bradley (#18 - AZ), LHP Tyler Skaggs (#19 - AZ), and Jake Odorizzi (#20 - KC).

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Toby Hyde
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I missed this when it was published a few days ago, but in his notes column about the Futures Game World roster, Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus had some nice things to say about Wilmer Flores:

?Gets better each time I see him; the bat is real; lots of raw power; good barrel-to-ball ability; not a great athlete, but physical; average at best defensive tools at?3B; not an ideal profile, but the bat is better than I realized and should play at position; role 5 type; not special, but solid stick and potential for more.
Couple interesting things here:

  • "lots" of raw power, is a revision of the scouting report on Flores from the last few years
  • "average at best tools at 3B" is ?not.
  • "Role 5" ?= ?solid average regular and "potential for more"
Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Wilmer Flores, Toby Hyde
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Interesting note on Brandon Nimmo from Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein in his Monday Morning Ten Pack yesterday:

Scouts don't know what to make of him, other than really liking him. For such a raw player, he consistently puts together quality at-bats, but for every scout that thinks he's going to turn into a power hitter, you can find one who think he's going to be more of a high-average gap-to-gap type. The good news is nobody seems to think he's going to be?bad, and we have plenty of time to figure out what kind of good player he has the potential to be.
Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Brandon Nimmo, Toby Hyde
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From Kevin Goldstein on Zack Wheeler:

21 strikeouts in first 15 Double-A innings; scouts say both fastball and breaking ball are missing bats.
From John Perrotto's "Scouts' Views" section of his "On the Beat" column?on Kirk Nieuwenhuis:

"He's doesn't have one great tool, but he's the type of player who does everything well. He can pop you some home runs, he'll steal some bases, and he plays a decent center field, though I like more on a corner. He plays hard and he's fundamentally sound, and that helps him play above his tools. I like him, and I think he's going to have a decent big-league career. And I think he could really become a big deal in New York because the female fans are going to love him. He's a good-looking kid."
Ladies, can you confirm?
Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Zack Wheeler, Toby Hyde
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Baseball Prospectus prospect Guru Kevin Goldstein released his Top Mets prospects yesterday. ?We talk about them. ?This part is focused on position players, although a few pitchers sneak in.

TH: From reader UBE 13: How come Lagares over Puello and Nieuwenhuis [pictured at right], given that Lagares's success is almost solely BABIP driven?

KG: Well, nobody is saying Lagares is going to hit .370. But he does have a better hit tool then Puello or Capt. Kirk, and that matters, and none of them is going to be a center fielder in the big leagues. Puello is still far more tools than reality, and his approach is a complete mess, while Nieuwenhuis is certainly the most likely to have a career, but the ceiling is questionable.

Tags: Analysis, Baseball Prospectus, Rankings Season, Toby Hyde
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Yesterday, Kevin Goldstein released his Mets Top 11 Prospect Ranking at Baseball Prospectus. ?I talked to him about the rankings, and the Mets system. ?This is part 1 of the conversation, focused on pitching. ?The position players will be the focus of part 2. I avoided asking questions that I felt were answered directly by his comprehensive writeups.

TH: Lets start at the top. How close was Harvey [pictured at right] and Wheeler at #1 for you, and should Mets fans worry about the difference?

Tags: Analysis, Baseball Prospectus, Toby Hyde
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Rany Jazayerli has just written a terrific pair of articles at Baseball Prospectus arguing persuasively that in the MLB amateur draft, younger high school hitters have a dramatic advantage over their older high school peers (part 1, part 2).

Here's a money quote:

We can safely say that the youngest 20 percent of high school hitters in any particular year will return, on average, about double what the oldest 20 percent of high school hitters will.
And translating it to specific picks:

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Toby Hyde
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In a recent open thread discussion, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus answered some Mets prospect questions. ?Juan Urbina, Jeurys Familia, and Wilmer Flores were referenced:

Q:?Thank you for the chat: Any word on Juan Urbina this year? He's giving up an awful lot of?HR's so far..

KG:?Talked to a scout who saw his last start. Up to 93, some feel for the secondary stuff. He's very raw, but there's real talent there.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Jeurys Familia, Juan Urbina, Wilmer Flores
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From Monday's Ten-Pack over at Baseball Prospectus:

Jeurys Familia,?RHP, Mets (Double-A Binghamton)Few pitchers in baseball have done more for their stock this year than Familia, who entered the year as a big arm with plenty to figure out, and is suddenly among the best pitching prospects in the system. ...?last year despite mid-90s heat, many projected Familia as a reliever, but that's no longer the case, ...?His stuff hasn't taken a step forward (not that it needed to), but his control has improved by leaps and bounds; after walking 74 over 121 innings last year, he's handed out just 11 complementary pizzas in 50 1/3. This season is critical in terms of defining his future role; six weeks in, he not only looks like a sure-fire starter, but an above-average one at that.
 

Your top three Mets pitching prospects are clearly Matt?Harvey, Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia. ? How you rank them is up to you. ?Coming into the year, I had them at Mejia, Harvey and Familia. ? Now?

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Jeurys Familia, Toby Hyde
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Monday, at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein wrote about SS Wilmer Flores:

 

Flores has never put up big numbers in the minors, but he is also one of those prospects who has always had the excuse of being young for his level, as he is spending his second year at High-A and doesn't turn 20 until August. That being said, his scouting reports are beginning to be a concern. As a player without much patience or power, much of his value revolves around his ability to hit for average, and as his .284/.329/.328 line suggests, he is still not doing enough of it, especially for whatever position he ends up at. ?He's the worst shortstop I've ever seen... he couldn't play shortstop on my son's 10-year-old team,? said one scout who recently saw him in the Florida State League. ?He obviously has some ability with the bat, but I don't like the swing or the approach, and I'm not sure he'll ever have much power,? he continued. ?It's a bad bat, a bad athlete, and after clocking him at 4.75 seconds to first base while running all-out on a double play, I think he probably has to play first base, so he better hit.?

Tags: Analysis, Baseball Prospectus, Wilmer Flores, Toby Hyde
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Fernando Martinez Fernando Martinez was 0-3 yesterday, but he did impress our own Mike Diaz, who tweeted:
Fernando Martinez just showed us something beautiful in that AB vs the LHP. Patience, patience, and bat speed. #stayhealthykid #Mets
Adam Foster of Project Prospect also tweeted about Martinez's potential:

As a 1B, I think he has 30+ HR potential and could put up a wOBA around .360 RT @MeanyMikey: Any projections for F-Mart?
It's worth next to nothing, but Martinez has been productive in his 20 plate appearances this spring, going 7-for-17 (.412) with two doubles, and a home run.? I think more importantly than a few base hits, or even some power, is that he's drawn three walks and fanned four times.? That's a very nice piece of strike zone control.

I also pointed out that he needs a better nickname than F-Mart, which just sounds boring and cheap.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Business of Baseball, Fernando Martinez, Omar Minaya, Toby Hyde
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Kevin Goldstein has his list of the 101 Top Prospects in baseball up today at Baseball Prospectus.? It's free and he's doing a chat this afternoon.

He's got Jenrry Mejia at #45, Matt Harvey at #75 and Wilmer Flores at #98.

For the record, here are the three guys above and below each young Met.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Toby Hyde
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In Monday's edition of Baseball Prospectus' Future Shock, Kevin Goldstein lists 10 minor leaguers (five pitchers and five hitters) whose season stat lines were a bit misleading.? Basically its a list of prospects who are not as good as their numbers would indicate.? This is?not a good list to be on.? Two Mets prospects made the list: Dillon Gee and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Frankly I was not shocked to see Gee on the list, but I was a little surprised to see Nieuwenhuis appear on this list.? Here are Goldstein's comments on Gee and Nieuwenhuis:

Gee:

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Dillon Gee, Kirk Nieuwenhuis
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I recently had the privilege to have Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus, answer some of my questions regarding Mets minor leaguers.

MD: Darrell Ceciliani had monster a season for Brooklyn. Does he have enough defensive ability to be an impact type big league CF?? What would you say his ceiling is?

KG: I'm going to start with a quick comment that applies to nearly all of your questions. You're asking about short-season guys, and it's such a nascent time in these players careers that we're projecting a LOT. These players can go in a ton of directions from here, many of them good, many of them bad, and we can just go on what we know. Onto Ceciliani, I wouldn't call him an impact defender, but he can play the position well, and that gives him a huge leg up, as you can't say that about most minor league center fielders. What he did offensively this year was a very pleasant surprise, and did wonders for his stock. He does need to work on his approach, as he's a bit of a pitch chaser, and he needs to work on his base running, but he can hit and I like him quite a bit.
MD: Cory Vaughn displayed an above average power/speed combination in the NYPL.? Do you feel he can continue this at higher levels of competition?

Tags: Akeel Morris, Baseball Prospectus, Cory Vaughn, Darrell Ceciliani, Juan Urbina, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Lucas Duda, Reese Havens, Sean Ratliff
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With the first half of the season in the books, I thought it would be good to get some perspective from Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus.

Here is my conversation with KG:

MD: Wilmer?Flores?seems to have matured as a hitter a bit.? At 18, has he solidified himself as a premier hitting prospect?

Tags: Baseball Prospectus
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At Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein has his list of the top 101 prospects in baseball up.? Four Mets made the cut.

48. Jenrry Mejia

80. Fernando Martinez

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Toby Hyde
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Kevin Goldstein, of Baseball Prospectus, published his Top 11 Mets Prospects. Here is the list with a few notes from Goldstein:

1. Jenrry Mejia-His heater sits at 93-95 mph, touches 98, and features heavy, hard sink.2. Fernando Martinez-Martinez still shows star-level offensive potential. He's a good outfielder with an above-average arm.3. Wilmer Flores-Flores has big offensive potential. His bat speed ranks with anyone in the system.4. Ike Davis-Davis has classic first-base tools, with a good feel of the strike zone and plus to plus-plus raw power.5. Jon Niese-The most advanced pitching prospect in the system.6. Brad Holt-He fills the strike zone with a 91-94 heater that touches 96 mph when he reaches back for more.7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis-Nieuwenhuis is a big athlete with solid tools across the board.8. Josh Thole-Thole is a pure contact hitter who slaps balls to all fields, is especially difficult to strike out.9. Kyle Allen-He's long and projectable, and he flashed a solid slider and changeup at various times last year.10. Ruben Tejada-Tejada could be a second-division starting middle infielder or, at the very least, a nice utility player.11. Reese Havens-He could be a low-average second baseman who makes up for it with walks and power.

Goldstein also adds 4 more:

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Other Prospect Rankings
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Tuesday, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus held a prospect chat and took two Mets questions, one on Jenrry Mejia and one on Wilmer Flores.

Rhys (Near Shea): Jenrry Mejia's been torched in the AFL. Is he the Mets top pitching prospect?

Kevin Goldstein: He's easily the Mets top pitching prospect, as the arm is really special, despite the fact

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Daily Recap, Jenry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Toby Hyde
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Both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America held chats on Friday with a fair amount of Mets content.? We'll start with BP, and Kevin Goldstein because it opens up a wider range of issues and no one does it better than KG.

brian (Brooklyn NY): Are you a believer in Josh Thole? He cant be worse than Schneider and Santos, right?

Kevin Goldstein: If that's your litmus test in me believing in him, then yet. Not a great defender, but can hit. Best comp I've heard from a scout is Darrin Fletcher.

Tags: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Ruben Tejada, Toby Hyde
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As I wrote about this morning, Kirk Nieuwenhuis is in the midst of the best run for a Mets minor league hitter all year.

This afternoon, Baseball America put him at #2 on their Prospect Hot Sheet:

Sorry Kirk, but we just blew the lid off your stealth campaign in the Florida State League. Only a five-homer showing by Brett Wallace in Triple-A stood in the way of a No. 1 ranking. Batting .259/.346/.441 with 15 homers, 27 doubles, 64 RBIs and 16 steals (in 20 attempts), Nieuwenhuis leads the FSL in home runs, extra-base hits (46) and runs scored (81).
By the way, both BP and BA recognized former Mets today as well.

BA dropped Deolis Guerra onto the Hot Sheet at #11.

Tags: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Toby Hyde
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At his Minor League Update, Kevin Goldstein at BP wrote about Darrell Ceciliani today:

Darrell Ceciliani, OF, Mets (Rookie-Level Kingsport)

Thursday's stats: 4-for-5, 2 R, RBI, K, CSA fourth-round pick this year out of a small community college in Washington, Ceciliani is a excellent athlete with plus speed, gap power who needs less time adjusting to pro ball as his college team played with wood bats. He just turned 19 last month, is 14-for-30 in his last seven games and .301/.393/.452 overall in 20 pro games, and scouts are taking notice.Baseball America put B-Mets 1B Ike Davis at #13 on this week's Prospect Hot Sheet.

Tags: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Darrell Ceciliani, Ike Davis, Toby Hyde
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Sunday, 17-year Savannah SS Wilmer Flores was 4-4 to raise his season batting line to .287/.326/.363.? Avid readers and minor league afficionados will remember that Flores got off to a slow start, hitting .243/.293/.280 through May 11.? At that point, the Mets sat Flores down for a nine day rest period.? Since his return on May 20, Flores has hit .310/.344/.405 in his last 210 AB.? In that span, he has 10 doubles, two triples and two bombs.? He's walked seven times and struck out just 20 times, a nearly unbelievable k rate of 8.9%.

Monday, in his Ten Pack at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein wrote:

It's easy to forget that Flores is younger than most high school players who got drafted last month. How many of them do you think could hit .287 in a full-season league? It's a short list, and Flores has been especially hot of late, going 4-for-4 on Sunday while batting .320 in his last 40 games. He's not a shortstop in the end, but the bat could end up really special.
Emphasis added.

Tags: Adam Rubin, Baseball Prospectus, Wilmer Flores, Toby Hyde
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At Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein reviewed the draft picks for every NL team.? Here are his Mets thoughts:

Quick Take: While the Mets opted for the hometown hero by nabbing the Long Island prep star with their first pick, Matz' talent truly belonged here; he's a long, projectable lefty who got up to 93-94 mph this spring. Shields didn't live up to expectations, but he's a solid player with average tools across the board.

Notable Later Picks: Not only does fifth-round pick Damien Magnifico have a great name, he also has a great arm, and he got into the mid-90s at times this spring. Right-hander David Buchanan (6th) is another big-time arm-strength guy, but he's very raw. Catcher Taylor Freeman (8th) combines good catch-and-throw skills with intriguing power.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Draft, Toby Hyde
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Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus has recognized Mets on back-to-back days in his daily rundown of happenings in minor league baseball.

Monday, he wrote of Brad Holt:

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Brad Holt, Lucas Duda, Toby Hyde
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At his most recent chat at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein answered one Mets question.

joalryan (Chicago): What's your view on Wilmer Flores? Is he compared to Miguel Cabrera because it's appropriate, or because it's convenient?

Kevin Goldstein: Obviously, anytime you are comparing a guy out of short season with an established superstar, it's dangerous. Still, it's a very promising bat for a teenager, and like Cabrera, he's got a thick lower half that's going to limit him defensively down the road.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Daily Recap, Wilmer Flores, Toby Hyde
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Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has released his list of the Top 100 Prospects in baseball.? He has three Mets on the list:

#44 - OF Fernando Martinez

#54 - SS Wilmer Flores

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Toby Hyde
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At Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein took a look at the two players in each National League farm system who made a ?great leap forward.?

Daniel Murphy hit .308/.374/.496 at Double-A Binghamton and has been one of many pleasant surprises filling in for an injured Moises Alou in left field, batting .357/.444/.536 in 34 big-league games while being used only against righties. He's in over his head, but he's done enough to prove his doubters wrong.

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Dan Murphy, Nick Evans, Toby Hyde
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Kevin Goldstein took four Mets questions in his chat Wednesday at Baseball Prospectus. My comments are italicized.

J.P. (Hartford): Does Brad Holt start 09 at Bingo, or does he stay in PSL until the weather warms up? And how's the breaking stuff coming along?

Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Brad Holt, Dan Murphy, Dylan Owen, Wilmer Flores, Toby Hyde
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Want to piss off a Yankee fan?? Tell him Jose Reyes is better than Jeter.? After the Yankee fan is done yelling at you, calmly point to this article today by Joe Sheehan which runs the numbers and finds Reyes ahead by four wins through the two shortstops age 25 seasons.?? I've said it before and I'll say it again, I love reading Joe Sheehan's work.? For what it's worth, Sheehan considers himself a Yankee fan.
Tags: Baseball Prospectus, Majors, Toby Hyde
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Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus posted a National League East notebook on Thursday. His Mets analysis is based on a conversation with a pro scout who sees Jon Niese and Eddie Kunz as ?productive big leaguers.?

Niese has had a solid year as the team's ace, with a 3.09 ERA in 20 starts. What does that mean as far as the majors, though? "He's a back-end rotation guy for me, no doubt," said the scout. "He sits in the upper 80s and can touch 90 mph with the fastball, and there's deception with his delivery. He also pitches inside with the fastball and plays around with it a lot?adding and subtracting, sinking it, cutting it." Niese's best pitch remains an above-average curveball, but his changeup still needs work, and that is borne out in his splits, as right-handed batters have done much better against him. "It maybe projects as average, he really tips the pitch with his arm action," concluded the scout.

Tags: Analysis, Baseball Prospectus, Eddie Kunz, Jon Niese, Toby Hyde
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