New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Moneyline: NYM +125/MIL -135
Series: NYM Even/MIL -130
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Steven Matz (3-1, 3.68 ERA) vs. Brandon Woodruff (3-1, 5.17 ERA)
For the second consecutive weekend, the Brewers and Mets are getting together for a three-game set -- this time at Miller Park after Milwaukee took two of three in Flushing.
The Amazin's were able to dodge a sweep last Sunday thanks to the services of Matz, who continued his rebound from that eight-run, zero-out first-inning disaster he endured at the hands of the Phillies just a couple of weeks ago.
Matz went a season-high seven innings against the Brewers, yielding only two runs and five baserunners in the winning effort. He also struck out four, and in the process, crafted back-to-back quality starts for the first time this season.
However, Matz's struggles with the long ball have also continued. He's served up at least one homer in five of six starts, and the lineup he's about to face specializes in going yard off lefties. In fact, no team has deposited more home runs this year with a southpaw on the hill than the Brewers. Luckily for Matz, though, 2018 National League MVP Christian Yelich (back) might remains sidelined tonight.
The Mets will be getting their second crack at Woodruff, hoping for better results after managing just a measly run and six hits in the first meeting. Chances are, though, the bats get going again.
Although they're coming off a four-game series with the Reds that saw the offense total only nine runs, New York has a chance to get back on track at the plate, having just seen Woodruff less than a week ago.
With Woodruff allowing a .288/.355/.432 slash line to opposing batters this season, that familiarity can only be a good thing for a batting order that is due to plate some runs again. The Milwaukee right-hander also owns an undesirable 1.47 WHIP on the year.
How I Would Bet This Game
Matz and the Mets are a temptingly-priced underdog, especially facing Woodruff in consecutive starts. So, unlike the last series, the lineup should be live again and could strike for a crooked number in the opener. I'd take the Mets with the plus odds.
Should You Bet The Series?
It doesn't look like there's any value being offered on either side, but that's understandable considering both clubs have a realistic shot at winning the series. Laying off on a bet to win two of the matchups is probably best.