Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Moneyline: BOS +110/NYY -120
First pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, YES
Probable pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 8.40 ERA) vs. J.A. Happ (0-2, 8.76 ERA)
The first installment of The Rivalry in 2019 wraps up this evening at Yankee Stadium, where the Red Sox and Yankees will play the back-end of their quick two-game set.
As it is, you'd normally be thinking of taking an over when this pair of rivals get together, as they boast two of the best offenses in all of baseball. That feeling is turned up when two struggling starting pitchers are set to do the bidding on the mound.
Eovaldi hasn't looked particularly sharp in the early going, registering an unsightly 8.40 ERA and 1.87 WHIP to go with as many walks as strikeouts (10). Opposing lineups have been taking him yard, too, teeing off on the nine-year veteran for six homers already in his three starts.
It can't be a good, then, that Eovaldi now has to take to the road to face the club that has led all of baseball in home runs at home in each of the past two seasons. Obviously, Yankee Stadium is one of the friendliest parks for the long ball.
He's not the only slumping starter in this affair considering Happ is the counterpart. The former Rookie of the Year has been even worse, in fact, failing to get out of the fifth inning in any of his three starts. In the process, he's been touched up for 12 runs, resulting in an ugly 8.76 ERA.
The saving grace for Happ is that he draws an opponent this evening whom he's had plenty of success against throughout his entire career. In 20 starts (and one relief appearance) opposite Boston, the 36-year-old has gone 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA. Last year in four meetings, he churned out a delightful 1.99 ERA while Sox hitters could only muster a .200 batting average.
How I Would Bet This Game
Given Boston's struggles and their track record with Happ, the Yanks at -120 odds look like a solid bet. However, I would suggest veering toward the over/under instead, with it being uncertain if you can trust the Yankee southpaw while he's mired in his own slump. As a result, I recommend to take the Over 9 here. That Red Sox lineup isn't going to stay down much longer.