We loved Green Bay (-5 1/2) last night, because everyone fell in love with the Bears after they dominated the sorry Colts in Week One. We knew the Bears' OL still stinks and they proved it once again by leaving Jay Cutler to fend for himself. We won't count this as a win, so we will still owe you three for this week.
Some quick advice.....
Never play more than three games. The odds go up exponentially when you play four (from 6-1 to 10-1). With three games you can take your strongest plays and wager a little more on each. Doing that with four is a bit of a reach. With three, you can win two and still come out ahead.
Spreads: Half-point spreads mean you lose the luxury of a push. Think about what you think the score will be and work from there. For instance, the spread on last night's game was 5.5 - an amorphous number when it comes to football scoring. If it was 7.5, you would have had to think. That's really ten points. Not many games are decided by eight or nine points. Instead, it's under one score, one possession, so it's a bit clearer and easier to lay the lumber.
3.5 points is almost always a take situation if you are predicting a close game. Don't get beat on these. Stay away if possible.
Last night, If you took the Packers (-5.5), you needed to win by six. I thought they would, because the Packers needed to win, they were at home and they were going to rattle Jay Cutler into turnovers (4 INTs and 7 sacks). All of those things happened and we went to sleep with a clear conscience.
On over/under bets, just think of a final score and match it to the line. I'm not big on these, especially since defenses have been rendered irrelevant by many of the newer rules. But, some can be tempting, so tread lightly.
If you are a fan of a team, hold your money. It will dilute any comment sense you have. These are business transactions. If you want to make weekly donations, give to a local food pantry or animal shelter. I never play Giant games, unless its the Super Bowl. At that point, I'm all in on just about everything anyway....
Week Two Plays
NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) over Arizona - not much is going right for the Cardinals, even though they won their opener last week. The Patriots are not the Seahawks and Pete Carroll may have been great in the college ranks, but he's marginal as a pro coach. He'll go head-to-head this week vs you-know-who. Kevin Kolb will most likely start at QB for Arizona over John Skelton (ankle), but that won't matter much. The Pats' defense is now designed to stop both the pass and the run. They won't give up more than two scores in this game. On offense, New England will not be stopped. Forty or more points are in order for the Pats in their home opener.
PHILADELPHIA (-2) over Baltimore - yes, we know what you're thinking...Joe Flacco is great now and Michael Vick still makes stupid mistakes. That all may be true, but the Eagles usually rise to challenges such as these. Normally, we would look at this game and jump on the Ravens. Then the Eagles would give them a textbook whipping and we would be doubly pissed. Not only did we lose our bet, but the Eagles won a ballgame. This time, my inner Chico Marx (they no foola me!) takes over and the play is Eagles all the way. If they lose, good. If they win, I'll swallow my pride and take the escarole.
Detroit (+6.5) over SAN FRANCISCO - huh? Two straight plays vs the formidable Harbaugh brothers? Believe it or not, yes. Let's not forget the bad blood between these two teams from last year's game, when the head coaches almost came to blows after the game. In that game at Ford Field, the Lions lost 25-19 and were undisciplined. The Lions and head coach Jim Schwartz have been looking forward to this meeting for a year. This time, they should be more heady. Their front seven should be able to keep the 49ers at bay (around the 20-21 point range) and Matthew Stafford will be good for at least that. I see San Fran winning, but Stafford sticking in a late score to cover.