The Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) vs. the Giants (1-8) at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, N.J. on Sunday, Nov. 19 at 1 p.m. ET.
It could be worse. The forecast calls for a game-time temperature right up around 50, though it'll feel colder thanks to partly cloudy skies and a brisk, 20 miles-per-hour wind.
WHAT IT MEANS
It's hard to find meaning in any game the next few weeks, but a good showing -- or a seemingly unlikely win -- would go a long way towards calming the "storm" around the Giants (the one Ben McAdoo says suits him so well). That matters to his bosses, who are really dreading a seven week swirl down the drain until the Giants' season is over. You'd think things couldn't get worse, but of course they can. At some point, McAdoo has to figure out a way to stop the bleeding.
PLAYER TO WATCH: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
He's going to be the hottest name in your fantasy football league this week because the Giants have been atrocious against tight ends. They've been consistent, too. They've allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game this season, and 10 straight games overall - an NFL record. Kelce, meanwhile, has developed into one of the best tight ends in football and perhaps the most dangerous receiving tight end. He's got 51 catches for 629 yards, including 14 catches for 206 yards in the last two games and touchdowns in three straight games. Whether the Giants use safety Landon Collins on him or someone from their depleted linebacking corps, he's a mismatch waiting to happen. If the Giants even slow him down it would be an upset at this point almost as big as a Giants win.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Giants CB Janoris Jenkins vs. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill
If I'm Andy Reid and I saw Jenkins' humiliating performance on Sunday in San Francisco, where he gave half-hearted attempts at arm tackles, tried to avoid contact, and generally looked like a player who quit, I'd run Hill at him on the first play of the game and never stop. Yeah, yeah, I know, Jenkins said it wasn't lack of effort. Whether it was a lack of effort or a lack of ability, the film still shows the same thing. Hill hasn't been as explosive this year as he was a year ago, but he's still got an impressive 40 catches for 617 yards and four touchdowns. The Giants' pass rush has been slipping and their secondary has been terrible, and with the Giants undoubtedly having to concentrate on Kelce and running back Kareem Hunt, Hill could be in for a sneaky good day -- certainly for a couple of huge plays, which the Giants have gotten good (or bad) at surrendering the past couple of weeks. Hill, by the way, has only caught two passes in each of the last two games. Expect that to change.
This sure looks a lot like the Rams game on the surface -- the game the Giants lost 51-17. The Chiefs are averaging 28.1 points per game. The Giants, as everyone now knows, haven't topped 28 points since they last scored 30 -- in the final game of 2015. The Chiefs defense does rank 30th and the Giants have been getting good production out of two of their best weapons -- tight end Evan Engram and receiver Sterling Shepard. But they're not suddenly going to explode for 30 without Odell Beckham, Jr. and with all their other offensive problems. That means the ticket to a Giants win would be to hold the Chiefs offense down, and just how is that supposed to happen? They don't seem to be equipped to cover tight ends, which means Kelce could be a nightmare for them. They have the NFL's third-worst rushing defense (132.6 yards per game against) and the explosive Hunt is second in the league in rushing. And Hill is a big play waiting to happen against a secondary that has looked like an absolute mess the last two weeks. I honestly can't find a scenario, outside of an actual storm, where the Giants hold the Chiefs under 30 points. And if they don't, they simply can not win. Heck, even if they do they probably can't. Andy Reid teams are 16-2 coming out of bye weeks. Don't bet against him here. Chiefs 38, Giants 17.
MY RECORD WHEN PICKING THE GIANTS TO WIN: 0-4
MY RECORD WHEN PICKING THE GIANTS TO LOSE:4-1