After the jump, I’ll list out all the picks initially held by the Jets, together with details of outstanding trades and the projection of potential compensatory picks (which we nailed ahead of everyone else last year).
As ever, if you want to jump in with questions, corrections or speculation, feel free to do so. I am also open to ideas for things you’d like me to cover over the course of the offseason.
Here, according to WalterFootball.com are the picks that the Jets should hold in the upcoming draft:
1st Round – 9
2nd Round – 7 (39th overall) - Note: Cleveland forfeits pick 39 due to 2012 Supplemental Pick
3rd Round – 10 (72nd overall) - Note: New Orleans forfeits pick 46 due to Bountygate
4th Round – 9 (103rd overall*)
5th Round – 8 (134th overall*)
6th Round – 10 (168th overall*)
7th Round – 9 (199th overall*)
However, this does not take into account the outcome of any conditionally traded draft picks or UFA compensatory picks. Therefore, let’s see if they will affect the Jets’ haul.
* Note: The overall position of picks from the fourth round onwards does not take into account compensatory picks at the end of the 3rd-to-7th rounds.
Conditionally Traded Picks
After last year, where the Jets had three trades that involved 2012 conditional picks, this year is much simpler because there are no such outstanding trades. For the record, all five picks that exchanged hands in the Tebow/Stanton trades were 2012 picks, so the Jets have retained their seven 2012 picks and don't have any additional picks due.
UFA Compensatory Picks
Note: UFA Compensatory Picks are different from the compensatory picks awarded when a team signs a restricted free agent or a franchised player to an offer sheet that isn’t matched. This is unlikely to apply to the Jets, since none of the Jets' RFAs were drafted, so draft pick compensation (if another team signed them to an offer sheet) would only apply if they had received a higher tender. It is also unlikely the Jets would receive compensatory picks for Dustin Keller by another team signing him after the Jets had franchised him. However, tagging him and then trading him for a lower pick is perhaps a possibility. Trading veterans under contract for picks is also an option.
UFA Compensatory Picks are awarded to teams who lost a free agents in the offseason. This is based on a secret formula that teams aren’t given, but the process has been going on long enough that we’ve got a pretty decent idea of how to project (assuming the NFL has not elected to change the formula, which is theoretically possible). Courtesy of the excellent AdamJT13, we now have enough information to make an informed estimate of the extra picks potentially due to the Jets.
First, here are some of the main rules:
- Teams can receive a maximum of four compensatory picks
- The maximum value of a compensatory pick is a third rounder
- Compensatory picks are added at the end of each round
- Only qualifying UFA losses count towards the calculation of how many picks are owed
- Qualifying UFA gains are offset against UFA losses and picks are only awarded to the extent that losses exceed gains
- To qualify, you must be an unrestricted free agent whose contract expired (or, in some cases, was voided) at the end of the previous season. RFA’s, even RFA’s that became UFA’s as a result of not being tendered do not qualify and neither do players who were cut, waived or released.
- Players signed after the end of the free agent signing period (usually the last week in June, but the lockout pushed this to the end of August in 2011) and players released before week 10 by their new teams do not qualify.
- The draft round value of the players appears to be mainly based on the annual value of their new contract, but playing time and postseason honors factor into things as well. For example, a player failing to have the required amount of playing time could become non-qualifying or a player with postseason honors might get bumped up to a higher round if they are on the bubble.
So, which of the Jets’ free agency signings and losses were qualifying and where does it leave them when netted out?
Let's look at qualifying UFA losses first. Although the Jets lost a lot of free agents, nearly all of these don't count for the following reasons:
- Mark Brunell, LaDainian Tomlinson and Donald Strickland were not picked up by another team
- Michael Campbell, Brodney Pool and Jamaal Westerman did not remain with the team who signed them
- Ropati Pitoitua was cut rather than having his contract expire, so he is not a qualifying UFA
- Nick Folk, Sione Po'uha and Bryan Thomas were retained
- Marquice Cole and Matt Mulligan were RFAs (as were Aaron Maybin and Patrick Turner, who were retained anyway)
- Plaxico Burress, Kevin O'Connell and Jim Leonhard were not signed until after the free agent signing period ended
That leaves one potentially qualifying UFA: Robert Turner. Turner was an RFA in 2011 and missed the entire season. However, he did accrue a season anyway, so he was a UFA loss, but does he qualify? Our understanding is that the key components of the formula are salary and playing time (with postseason honors sometimes used as a tie-breaker). Turner played every snap for the Rams, so clearly he would have met any playing time threshold (which is only believed to be about 20% anyway). However, he only received a minimum salary which makes it highly unlikely that he would qualify for one of the 32 available compensatory picks. Minimum salaried players have qualified in the past, but that was in a year when there was an abnormally low number of UFAs. As long as there were 32 higher paid qualifying UFA losses that did use up one of the picks, then it would not meet the criteria.
So, it looks highly unlikely that the Jets had any qualifying UFA losses in 2012. However, since it's not completely impossible, let's turn our attention to the UFA gains the Jets made, because if any of these qualified, then that would be netted off against the UFA loss and wipe it out anyway.
The Jets signed four potentially qualifying UFAs in 2012. Note that this does not include Yeremiah Bell, because he was released by the Dolphins rather than having his contract expire:
- Stephon Heyer does not qualify because the Jets did not retain him
- Drew Stanton does not qualify because he was traded away and never played
- Chaz Schilens potentially qualifies. However, like Turner, he only signed for the minimum.
- LaRon Landry should qualify - his playing time and salary were clearly high enough
Although I don't think the Redskins will end up with a compensatory pick for Landry, because they had too many qualifying UFA gains, he still counts as a qualifying UFA gain for the Jets. In conclusion, even if the Turner loss counted and the Schilens gain didn't (highly unlikely), the Landry gain would wipe the potential 7th round compensatory pick out.
Therefore, it seems pretty clear cut. The Jets will not receive any 2013 UFA Compensatory Picks
In 2014, the Jets could definitely end up with some compensatory picks, if guys like Greene, Keller, Landry and either of the free agent guards get picked up. However, do remember that these are dependent on playing time and are restricted to four picks in total that could be wiped out if they also make any qualifying UFA signings.
The actual compensatory picks are usually announced in the third week of March or thereabouts.
Overall, the Jets currently have one pick in each round, but obviously this could increase or reduce depending on any wheeling and dealing that takes place once the league year begins.
We will of course update you once more concrete information is known.