During the offseason, I’ll be looking back at certain aspects of the Jets’ season by analyzing data compiled from all nineteen games, rather than watching film. I will be tackling as many diverse topics as possible, but welcome your suggestions or requests in the comments.

This week's BGA focuses on the Seminole formation. With Brad Smith's departure, I'll be looking at how successful this formation was and recommend whether or not they should continue to use it.

In doing so, I'm going to investigate whether or not the assumption that using the Seminole formation throws the offense and/or Sanchez out of rhythm is accurate. I'll also try to determine how much of the success or otherwise of plays made in the Seminole formation was down to Smith.

Once again, this article has used data exclusively provided to us from the guys at PFF. Our thanks, as ever, go out to them.

Introduction

Fortunately, I don't need to do all the legwork this week. PFF recently did a study on teams that run the Wildcat formation - and variations thereof - and you might be surprised at the results of their findings:

While most NFL fans are familiar with Ronnie Brown and Josh Cribbs, the best wildcat quarterback in 2010 was by far the lesser-known Brad Smith. The backup receiver ran the ball from the wildcat 30 times for 212 yards and a touchdown … 7.1 yards per run. Half the time he handed the ball off, and the Jets other rushers had 4.0 yards per carry and a touchdown.


The league average for a Wildcat play was 4.3 yards per carry, just above the average for "normal" running plays. Smith was the only player to account for over 100 yards in the whole NFL.

The Jets were unquestionably very successful from this formation, which ties in with my own findings:

Here is the breakdown of the success of each formation over the course of the regular season:

Pro Set – 155 carries, 638 yards, 4.1 average

Seminole – 48 carries, 288 yards, 6.0 average

3 WR – 80 carries, 372 yards, 4.7 average

2 TE – 197 carries, 882 yards, 4.5 average

3 TE – 27 carries, 96 yards, 3.6 average

Immediately, we can see that the Seminole formation was the most successful. However, it was boosted by a several big gains in the meaningless final game of the year against the Bills. Entering that game, the average was 5.3 yards per carry, which is perhaps a more realistic number to quantify the success of that play.



In addition, I later calculated how successful they were from this formation if you omit plays of over 10 yards. The average was 3.5 yards per carry, which was still higher than every other formation the Jets ran from.

If the Seminole was so successful, why did many people still want to get rid of it during the season and why are many people glad that Brad Smith left, because his departure likely signals the phasing out of this formation?

The reason most often given is that whenever they use it, it breaks the momentum of the offense and/or Sanchez. Okay, let's see if that's true...

Does the Seminole Break the Offense's Momentum?

Let's find out the answers to a series of questions that will help us contemplate this. Please note that due to Smith's injury in the postseason, I only analyzed the regular season.

1. How do the Jets fare on the play immediately after Brad Smith leaves the game following a Seminole formation?

47 plays, 315 yards. An average of 6.7 yards per play. This included 10 plays that gained at least ten yards and five that went for a loss.

On this basis, I'd say that the effect of any immediate momentum loss is more than counteracted by any confusion caused in the opposing defense.

2. How often do drives stall immediately after the Jets use the Seminole formation?

When Sanchez re-entered the game after the Jets used a Seminole formation, the Jets failed to get a first down on their next series on 17 occasions. They picked up a first down and kept the drive going on 26 occasions. That's a 60% success rate, although 12 of those 17 failures came in the second half of the season, so the success rate was higher earlier in the year.

3. How often did the Jets score on a drive where they used the Seminole formation at least once?

13 Touchdowns (30%)

10 Field Goals (23%)

14 Punts (32%)

6 Turnovers (14%)

1 Missed Field Goal (1%)

How does that compare with how well they performed for the regular season as a whole?

34 Touchdowns (18%)

30 Field Goals (16%)

84 Punts (45%)

30 Turnovers (16%)

9 Missed Field Goal (5%)

Once again, they seemed to fare demonstrably better when they did use the Seminole, compared with when they didn't use it.

Does the Seminole Break Sanchez' Momentum?

Well, he said it does, so it must do...right? Or, does he actually calm down as a result of coming out of the game and make better decisions when he re-enters? These are Sanchez' numbers for passing the ball having re-entered the game following a Seminole formation play, for the remainder of that drive:

39-for-72, 477 yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions

Hey, that doesn't seem too bad. In fact, it's a marked improvement upon his regular season numbers. The completion percentage is about the same, the average yards per throw is better and he has a better TD/interception ratio. Overall, it translates to a QB rating of 85.2, almost ten points higher than his regular season total.

Once again, the evidence seems to suggest that using the Seminole doesn't have a negative effect upon Mark's performance.

One thing I did notice while compiling the data for this section was that Sanchez was sacked FIVE times on the play immediately after re-entering the game following a Seminole formation. If anything, that suggests that maybe it was the offensive line whose momentum was affected by the differing blocking requirements of the multitude of Seminole formations and these sacks could have been the result of some confusion. Without those sacks, the numbers on plays immediately after a Seminole play would have been even better. (Note: When I say Sanchez re-enters the game, sometimes he didn't leave the game, instead lining up out wide, but I mean that he returns to the Quarterback position, just to make that distinction.)

How Much of the Seminole's Success is Attributable to Brad Smith?

We've established that the Seminole was a successful play and didn't seem to negatively affect the Jets' chances of scoring on a given drive. However, if you remove Brad Smith from the equation, could you expect the formation to be anywhere near as successful with someone else at the Quarterback position?

We saw first hand that this isn't a "Plug 'n' Play" situation during the postseason last year. With Smith out injured, the Jets inserted LaDainian Tomlinson in his place and tried to use the Seminole formation twice. The results were a fumbled snap and a delay of game penalty.

Obviously, there is an inherent advantage in having a Seminole Quarterback with experience of actually playing the Quarterback position. The familiarity with taking a snap and reading the defense cannot be overlooked. However, it's worth remembering that the formation was initially designed for Leon Washington (and many of the other Wildcat teams over the last few years have used non-QB's to take the snap).

One other apparent advantage is the threat of a pass. However, as I've often said on TJB, Brad Smith doesn't have anywhere close to an NFL-caliber arm with his slow, upright release, floating passes and questionable accuracy. I'd go as far as to say that any of the running backs or receivers offer just as much of a threat in that area. You don't need the Seminole QB to be a great passer anyway. The most effective plays are usually just dumped over the top to a wide-open leaking-out tight end.

There's no question that Smith was responsible for many of the successes running the ball. Many times he turned a short gain into a longer one by breaking a tackle, or used his elusiveness to get back to the line of scrimmage to prevent a loss of yardage. Overall, he averaged one broken tackle every six carries and 3.1 yards per carry after contact. (Note: This includes end-arounds). Not bad numbers, but perhaps not irreplaceable when you consider that Shonn Greene achieved similar numbers in 2009 (one missed tackle every eight carries and 3.3 yards per carry after contact).

Smith was also to blame for a few of the failings of the Seminole, notably when he fumbled against the Packers and when he made a bad read on 4th and one against Miami.

Conclusions

The Seminole formation worked. Brad Smith may well have been the primary reason for that, but there is evidence to suggest that using it had a positive effect on the Jets' ability to score. Now that he is gone, it is up to the Jets to decide whether it is worth continuing to use the formation and whether there is anyone on the roster capable of performing anywhere close to as well as Brad Smith did.

I'll leave you to discuss who - if anyone - you would employ in this role in 2011 in the comments.

This is the final BGA Weekly of the offseason. I may squeeze in one more BGA Nano before Monday night and then I will put up a bumper links post summarizing everything I looked at this offseason. Preseason BGA returns next week! Thanks for reading.

Tags: BGA, Main Page, Bent Double

Oct 22, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore (8) throws a pass during the second half against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports (Steve Mitchell)
Oct 22, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore (8) throws a pass during the second half against the New York Jets at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports (Steve Mitchell)

The Dolphins overcame a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter and kicker Cody Parker drilled a game-winning 39-yard field goal to hand the Jets a second consecutive loss. >> Box score

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Oct 30, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New York Jets offensive tackle Brandon Shell (72) during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Jets won 31-28. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports (Scott Galvin)
Oct 30, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New York Jets offensive tackle Brandon Shell (72) during the second half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Jets won 31-28. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports (Scott Galvin)

Jets T Brandon Shell left the team's game against the Marlins on Sunday with a neck injury and is doubtful to return, the team announced.

Tags: Brandon Shell
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New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (AP)
New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (AP)

Jets DE Muhammad Wilkerson's is active for the Jets' Week 7 game against the Dolphins despite a lingering toe and shoulder injury that has put his status in jeopardy early this season.

Tags: Bilal Powell, Christian Hackenberg, Derrick Jones, Jordan Leggett, Muhammad Wilkerson
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Oct 8, 2017; Cleveland, OH, USA; New York Jets quarterback Josh McCown (15) congratulates wide receiver Jermaine Kearse (10) (Scott Galvin)
Oct 8, 2017; Cleveland, OH, USA; New York Jets quarterback Josh McCown (15) congratulates wide receiver Jermaine Kearse (10) (Scott Galvin)

 Ralph Vacchiano | Facebook | Twitter | Archive

THE GAME

The Jets (3-3) vs. the Miami Dolphins (3-2) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., on Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET.

THE WEATHER

It will be hot, as usual, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. It will also be windy, with sustained winds of 15-20 m.p.h. expected. And as always in Miami, there could be some late afternoon thunderstorms that potentially could impact the second half of the game.

Tags: Buster Skrine, Josh McCown, Morris Claiborne, Ralph Vacchiano
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Jonas Schwartz and Willie Colon look back at a tough loss to the New England Patriots. The guys discuss the brutal mistakes by the Jets which kept the Pats in the game, and the blown call at the goal line involving Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Plus, Jets defensive tackle Steve McLendon joins the show to talk about the struggles of Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams, and his role on the team. Later, Brian Costello of the New York Post calls in to give his take on the loss to NE, and how the Jets missed out on Deshaun Watson.

Click below to listen!

Tags: Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, Steve McLendon
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Vacc's 3 Keys to a Jets win 00:01:37
SNY NFL Insider Ralph Vacchiano gives his three keys to a Jets victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

SNY NFL Insider Ralph Vacchiano gives his three keys to a Jets victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

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In the latest episode of Timeout with Taylor Rooks, former NFL running back Curtis Martin recalls some of the most dramatic moments of his life, including two near-death experiences, as well as his relationship with Bill Parcells, Bob Kraft, and the infamous trade that sent him from the Patriots to the Jets.

Click below to listen

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GEICO SportsNite: Jets vs. Miami 00:01:54
With Muhammad Wilkerson likely a game-time decision to play Sunday, Jeane Coakley talks to Leonard Williams about stepping up his game.

 

Tags: Leonard Williams
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New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (AP)
New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (AP)

Ralph Vacchiano | Facebook | Twitter | Archive: FLORHAM PARK, N.J. - The last time the Jets had Bilal Powell in the lineup, at full strength, he ran all over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Forced into the lead back role with Matt Forte sidelined, he ran for 163 yards on 7.8 yards per carry, including a 75-yard touchdown run.

He's back this week in time for the Jets game in Miami on Sunday, and so is Forte, with both apparently as close to full strength as they're going to be. But the Jets can't revert to their old habit of splitting their backfield duties.

They need Powell to carry the load.

Tags: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire, Jeremy Kerley, Matt Forte, Robby Anderson, Ralph Vacchiano
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New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (96) (Noah K. Murray)
New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (96) (Noah K. Murray)

Jets DE Muhammad Wilkerson (shoulder/toe) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Dolphins, and will be a game-time decision, head coach Todd Bowles said on Friday.

Wilkerson played through his shoulder injury in Weeks 4 and 5, and didn't practice throughout those weeks, so this might be the same scenario.

However, Bowles added that the team has discussed the possibility of giving Wilkerson one or two weeks off.

Tags: Bilal Powell, Muhammad Wilkerson
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New York Jets tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins runs the ball against New England Patriots safety Duron Harmon during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. (Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports)
New York Jets tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins runs the ball against New England Patriots safety Duron Harmon during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. (Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports)

The Jets (3-3) take on the Dolphins (3-2) on Sunday in Miami at 1 p.m. Here's what's going on today:

Need to know

The Jets are preparing for the trip to Miami, so there will be no media access at Florham Park on Friday. The entire term, apart from Muhammad Wilkerson, practiced without limitation yesterday, so they are in good shape for the road trip.

SNY's Ralph Vacchiano will preview the game and send his three keys. Follow @RVaccianoSNY on Twitter to keep up with all the happenings.

Tags: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bilal Powell, Miami Dolphins, Jordan Leggett, Muhammad Wilkerson
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GEICO SportsNite: Jets defense 00:01:25
Ralph Vacchiano reports in from Jets practice to address the question that is on everyone's mind; when will the Jets finally get a sack?

 

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Jenkins on overcoming addiction 00:03:29
On Jets Game Plan, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins sits down with Jeane Coakley to share about how he overcame his battle with addiction.

 

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New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (96) (Noah K. Murray)
New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (96) (Noah K. Murray)

Ralph Vacchiano | Facebook | Twitter | Archive

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- On the day the Jets re-signed Muhammad Wilkerson in the summer of 2016 to a blockbuster, five-year, $86 million contract, they made it clear they were banking on him and not Sheldon Richardson. Fourteen months later, Richardson was traded.

Tags: Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Ralph Vacchiano
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New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (AP)
New York Jets running back Bilal Powell (AP)

RB Bilal Powell, who missed last week's game due to a calf injury, practiced on Thursday and will return when the Jets face the Dolphins on Sunday in Miami, head coach Todd Bowles said.

DE Muhammad Wilkerson (shoulder/toe) was the only Jets player who didn't practice on Thursday.

Bent, theJetsBlog.com Follow on Twitter: Powell should hopefully give a boost to the Jets' struggling running game, although I suspect the team's inability to get the running game going has more to do with how overmatched the Jets have been in the trenches...

Tags: Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire, Matt Forte, Muhammad Wilkerson
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 (Ken Blaze)
(Ken Blaze)

He may be one of the most productive tight ends in football at the moment, but Jets TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins admits his career was taking a dive before joining the Green and White. 

Seferian-Jenkins has caught 23 passes over the last four weeks of the season. It could be more if he didn't have to serve a two-game suspension that stems from his DUI arrest last September when he was with the Buccaneers.

But ASJ doesn't mind the numbers. He is happy that he is still playing the game he loves in the first place. 

Tags: Austin Seferian-Jenkins
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The Jets (3-3) take on the Dolphins (3-2) on Sunday in Miami at 1 p.m. Here's what's going on today...

Need to know

The Jets practice today at Florham Park. Will Bilal Powell, Muhammad Wilkerson, or Robby Anderson return to practice after sitting out on Wednesday?

SNY's Ralph Vacchiano will be out at practice. Follow @RVaccianoSNY on Twitter to keep up with all the happenings...

Tags: Bilal Powell, Muhammad Wilkerson, Robby Anderson
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DNL: 2017 Jets season so far 00:02:58
The DNL panel discusses the Jets' season so far including if Todd Bowles deserves more credit and which player has disappointed the most.

 

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 (Dennis Schneidler)
(Dennis Schneidler)

The Jets featured many key players out during practice Wednesday including RB Bilal Powell, DE Muhammad Wilkerson, and WR Robby Anderson. 

Powell, who is nursing a calf injury, stretched with the team, but he didn't participate in anything else. He already missed last week with the same injury.

Wilkerson played through his shoulder injury in Weeks 4 and 5, He didn't practice throughout those weeks, so this might be the same scenario for No. 96...

Tags: Bilal Powell, Muhammad Wilkerson, Robby Anderson
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Daily News Live: Cool your Jets 00:03:02
The DNL panel discusses how the controversial play and loss to the Patriots could affect the Jets' mentality going into Week 7.

The DNL panel discusses how the controversial play and loss to the Patriots could affect the Jets' mentality going into Week 7.

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New York Jets safety Jamal Adams (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
New York Jets safety Jamal Adams (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

The Jets (3-3) take on the Dolphins (3-2) on Sunday in Miami at 1 p.m. Here's what's going on today...

Need to know

The Jets practice today at Florham Park.

SNY's Ralph Vacchiano will be out at practice on Thursday and Friday. Follow @RVaccianoSNY on Twitter to keep up with all the latest Jets news and rumors...

Tags: Jamal Adams, Leonard Williams, Marcus Maye
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Daily News Live: Colon 00:01:10
Willie Colon's sources at the meeting between NFL owners and Roger Goodell on anthem protests say no progress was made Tuesday.

SNY's Willie Colon said sources told him that players felt "nothing was accomplished" during a meeting on Tuesday between the NFL, executives, players, and the NFL Players' Association.

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 (Robert Deutsch)
(Robert Deutsch)

After a hot start to his rookie season, Jets S Jamal Adams became the latest victim of Patriots' star TE Rob Gronkowski in the Jets' 24-17 loss on Sunday. 

Adams had troubles with Gronk from the beginning of the game. The Jets had a 14-0 lead when Patriots QB Tom Brady launched a ball toward the back of the end zone intended for Gronkowski. Adams made a play on the ball, but refs said that he made too much contact with the 6-foot-6 tight end resulting in a pass interference call.

Dion Lewis would score on the next play, and Adams was still surprised as to why the refs threw the flag. 

Tags: Jamal Adams
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Oct 15, 2017; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets defensive end Leonard Williams (Brad Penner)
Oct 15, 2017; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets defensive end Leonard Williams (Brad Penner)

Bent, theJetsBlog.com Follow on Twitter: The Jets gave a good account of themselves and, despite some glaring weaknesses, continue to prove that they're a more talented group than most people gave them credit for before the season. Let's break down the performances on the defensive side of the ball from the Jets' loss to the Patriots in Week 6:

Defensive Line

The defensive line once again didn't make any major contributions, with New England rushing for 118 yards at an average of 4.7 per carry and officially surrendering just four quarterback hits and no sacks. However, that was partly due to the Jets' gameplan. They didn't blitz much, sending just four rushers on average. And some of the bigger runs they gave up came with pass defense personnel on the field or one of Leonard Williams and Muhammad Wilkerson on the bench...

Tags: Buster Skrine, Darron Lee, Demario Davis, Jamal Adams, Jordan Jenkins, Juston Burris, Leonard Williams, Marcus Maye, Morris Claiborne, Muhammad Wilkerson, Rontez Miles, Steve McLendon
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New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles (Ben Margot/AP)
New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles (Ben Margot/AP)

The Jets (3-3) take on the Dolphins (3-2) on Sunday in Miami at 1 p.m. Here's what's going on today...

Need to know

The Jets are off today.

SNY's Ralph Vacchiano will be out at practice on Thursday and Friday. Follow @RVaccianoSNY on Twitter to keep up with all the latest Jets news and rumors...

Tags: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buster Skrine, Jalin Marshall, Muhammad Wilkerson
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Daily News Live: Reffed Up 00:03:44
The Daily News Live panel discusses the controversial "fumble" call on Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the Jets' loss.

 

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New York Jets wide receiver Jalin Marshall (89) runs past Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Mike Thomas (13) in the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: (Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports)
New York Jets wide receiver Jalin Marshall (89) runs past Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Mike Thomas (13) in the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: (Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports)

The Jets assigned wide receiver Jalin Marshall to the practice squad on Monday after they waived him on Saturday.

Marshall, who served a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy for testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, was waived to make room for cornerback Xavier Coleman on the team's active roster for Sunday's 24-17 loss to the New England Patriots.

The 22-year-old Marshall recorded 14 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games last season. He also returned 18 punts for 100 yards and 13 kickoffs for 324 yards.

Tags: Jalin Marshall
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 (Brad Penner)
(Brad Penner)

Ralph Vacchiano | Facebook | Twitter | Archive: The decision to turn an Austin Seferian-Jenkins' touchdown on Sunday into a hard-to-explain fumble and touchback was a "clear and obvious" decision, according to the replay official who made the call.

Al Riveron, the NFL's senior VP of officiating, strongly defended his call in a conference call with reporters on Monday morning, one day after it impacted the Jets' 24-17 loss to the New England Patriots. He said the reversal of the touchdown after a video review was absolutely the correct decision based on the rule, and he didn't see anything controversial about it.

"No doubt about it, it was clear and obvious," Riveron said. "And we use that (standard) for every replay. Unless it's clear and obvious to us, we will not change the ruling on the field, and this definitely met that criteria."

Tags: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Ralph Vacchiano
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 (Robert Deutsch)
(Robert Deutsch)

Jets QB Josh McCown got off to a hot start on Sunday, but couldn't hold on to the lead as the Patriots earned the win on the road. 

The Jets jumped to a quick, 14-0 lead in the first half. However, the offense couldn't get anything going allowing Tom Brady to do what he does best and get the Pats the lead back. 

"Obviously we broke stride there and didn't keep pace the way we'd like," McCown told Jets.com's Eric Allen. "We have some short-yardage situations that we have to find a way to convert and be better at. We weren't converting and (we were) putting our defense right back out there. You can't give Tom (Brady) that many chances."

Tags: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jeremy Kerley, Josh McCown, Robby Anderson
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Oct 15, 2017; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Jeremy Kerley (14) runs in for a touchdown against New England Patriots safety Duron Harmon (30) (Brad Penner)
Oct 15, 2017; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Jeremy Kerley (14) runs in for a touchdown against New England Patriots safety Duron Harmon (30) (Brad Penner)

Bent, theJetsBlog.com Follow on Twitter

While much of the attention from the Jets' loss to the Patriots will be focused on the controversial overturned touchdown in the fourth quarter, the Jets only have themselves to blame for giving up 24 unanswered points and letting New England back into the game.

Nevertheless, they gave a good account of themselves and, despite some glaring weaknesses, continued to prove that they're a more talented group than most people gave them credit for before the season...

Tags: ArDarius Stewart, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Bilal Powell, Brandon Shell, Brent Qvale, Brian Winters, Chad Hansen, Elijah McGuire, James Carpenter, Jordan Leggett, Josh McCown, Kelvin Beachum, Matt Forte, Robby Anderson, Wesley Johnson
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