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The owners' meetings get underway today in Orlando. You can expect to hear about things such as rule changes later in the week and there may also be some trade activity and contract negotiations to watch out for. However, for today, our attention turns to the announcement of which compensatory picks will be awarded in the 2014 draft.

We know that the Jets have been expecting and are still expecting to get the maximum four picks, but the NFL's formula is not made available to teams. We were told that team officials indicated that they still expected to receive four picks at a recent event for season ticket holders.

The media seem to have picked up on the projection that suggests the Jets will receive a 5th round pick and three sixth rounders. However, they concede that their projections are never 100% accurate and there have been a few errors (for example, they had to amend their initial projection because they awarded 36 picks rather than the maximum of 32).

I wrote in detail about where their projection may not be correct and you can find those links after the jump. To summarize the main points, however:

  • Dustin Keller (a projected 5th rounder) may not qualify because he was on a one year deal and went straight onto injured reserve. In the past, there have been such players that would otherwise have qualified that have not qualified
  • Shonn Greene (a projected 6th) may not qualify because he only played 14.4% of the snaps and did not feature on special teams. In the past, there have been players that did not qualify due to insufficient playing time with the cut-off being approximately 20%
  • If Keller and/or Greene do not qualify then the Jets could still get four picks, but that will depend on whether Yeremiah Bell and/or Matt Slauson qualify. Each would be worth a seventh rounder
  • Either of them could fail to qualify because their salaries were too low. My working theory is that perhaps a player does not qualify if the acquiring team obtains a cap reduction for a vested veteran's minimum salary. This would apply to Bell, but not Slauson whose salary was lower than Bell's but $100K over the minimum for a player of his age.
It's not all bad news. The Landry and DeVito picks, respectively projected by as a 5th and 6th rounder are both right on the bubble, so either of them could in theory be one round higher than that. If he does qualify, the same could be said for Keller (currently projected as a 6th). Also, Mike Goodson - treated by as a qualifying gain - may not qualify due to his low playing time before he ended up on injured reserve. That might not make any difference but could benefit the Jets if any of the previously projected qualifying losses do not qualify.

My detailed projections, including a full breakdown of the rules and what we believe we know about the the formula are here and here.

Tags: BGA , Bent Double
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