(As a heads up, negative percentages are good on defense, but bad on offense & specials)
Rush Offense: -5.5% (19th)
O-Line Ranking: Run 17th / Pass 18th
Analysis: Simply put, this is a very pedestrian offense when you sum up all the parts. The problem of course is that the Bills have had to deal with a number of injuries this season at key positions. Most notably the quarterback spot where EJ Manuel missed games and CJ Spiller, one of the team's most dynamic playmakers. Even so, Fred Jackson has soldiered on while Spiller has recovered from his ankle injury. It is possible that Spiller could see more reps today against the Jets, but it sounds unlikely they will come as a receiver what with injuries to Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods out.
The Jets should look to limit the opposing running backs -- something they've done with excellent success so far this season. Then from that, force Manuel to throw out of favorable down and distance scenarios. If the Jets can do that, they will be able to get pressure on Manuel and allow the back-end of their defense to make some plays.
Pass Defense: -5.4% (9th)
Rush Defense: -6.6% (13th)
D-Line Ranking: Run 24th / Pass 16th
Analysis: People might want to talk about the injuries to the Bills on offense and how that favors the Jets, I on the other hand will focus/fret about the return to health of this secondary. The Jets might not be up against one of the league's very best defenses, but they will be up against one of the very best secondaries in the league bolstered by a phenomenal rookie Kiko Alonso. Safeties Jairus Byrd and Aaron Williams are one of the strongest safety combinations in the league. Nickell Robey and Leodis McKelvin have held the fort nicely waiting for the return of Stephon Gilmore. If it's susceptible anywhere, it will come down to Santonio overmatching an opposing corner or a slot corner getting burned. Kiko Alonso will make throwing to tight ends a dangerous business.
For the Jets to beat this defense, it has to begin on the ground. Taking advantage of the Bills struggles to defend the run will force Buffalo to sell out more against the run, thereby opening up some lanes for Geno Smith in the passing game. Even then, Geno is going to have to be prudent about where he puts the football. Buffalo leads the AFC (tied with Denver) with 13 takeaways this year. The Jets are one of the most turnover prone teams in the league. Losing the turnover battle means losing the game. The Bills might not be an overall good team, but they are good enough in the right areas that the Jets need to proceed with caution.
Special Teams: -5.7% (28th)
Analysis: The Bills have been fair most everywhere, but have been devastatingly bad on punts and punt coverage. Don't be surprised if the Jets can break a few big plays in their punt return unit to change the complexion of the game.