The quick summary: above-average first basemen hit generally hit for more power in their age 19 seasons than Smith has shown this year with Savannah. Some of Smith's output has to do with Grayson Stadium, but even his road performance is pretty far below the average of the group in terms of key offensive indicators.
So, onto the mailbag:
@tobyhyde where is Mazzoni?
? Eric Olesh (@eolesh) April 25, 2014On the disabled list. After leaving his final spring training start on March 27 with pain in his triceps, Mets doctors later diagnosed him with a strained lat. This is now the third year in a row that the 2011 second round pick has missed time with an injury. Mazzoni had?elbow neuritis?last April and arthroscopic surgery on his knee in August 2013. He also missed a start in late July 2012 with a?finger issue.?
Tags: Cory Mazzoni, Dominic Smith, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
Andrew Koo at Baseball Prospectus?revives Nate Silver's old PECOTA Takes on Prospects series. PECOTA's top 100 ranked Maron as the No. 80 prospect. Four spots later, d'Arnaud shows up. Checking in at No. 95? Noah Syndergaard.
Up near the top, PECOTA has Kevin Plawecki at No. 11. Rafael Montero is No. 37 and Steven Matz No. 63.
Tags: Analysis, Mailbag, Andrew Vazzano
Nets fans are searching for something to be positive about (justifiably so) in this mess of an early season and?the ?win over Boston certainly is a place to start. It was probably the best this team has played all year. With Deron Williams coming back, and Paul Pierce surprising everyone with an early return, it looks like we can finally see what this team is all about. I still need to see Andrei Kirilenko on the floor, but beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.
That said, with all the optimism coming from the D-Will return, I would still pump the brakes a bit and not go too crazy with a single two-game winning streak. ?I want to see them win tonight against a road weary Clippers team that is coming off a game last night in Boston.?If they can play with the same energy and passion as last game tonight and grab another win it could make me start to think that maybe they have found something.
Tags: Brooklyn Nets, deron williams, Mailbag, Nets, nets, paul pierce, Q&A, Brian Erni
Is Gavin Cecchini on the verge of a make or break year as a prospect? He had a solid average in a pitcher friendly NY Penn League, but his power numbers are really lacking. ?A lot of reports I read are down on him, and was just wondering your take Toby. ?Thanks.
Tags: Analysis, Gavin Cecchini, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
Tags: Islanders, mailbag, Kevin Schultz
I was hoping you could provide us with a post updating some of our top ranked players with injuries. ?Any updated on Mateo, Fulmer? What about Tapia? Is he injured? ?I have not seen any game lines for him.
Oh, I can. Tapia burned his non-pitching hand, but he returned over the weekend, and lasted only one third of an inning.
Tags: Luis Mateo, Mailbag, Michael Fulmer, Toby Hyde
Being that the Mets are so cost conscious, and have young promotable minor leaguers, can you explain how compensation works at the major league level for a promoted minor leaguer or someonoe signed to a minor league contract but has an spring training invite and makes the 25-man roster?
Ooh, I do know the answer. Whenever a player is in the big leagues, he will receive a prorated portion of the big league minimum. In 2013, the MLB minimum will be $490,000. When he is in the minors, he receives his minor league rate.
I am surprised we have not heard any rumblings about possibly moving Ike Davis to the OF, particularly RF. I understand that he is a very good defensive 1B and that he may not match that defensive value in RF but he did play both positions in college as well as while in the minors, and reports when he was drafted had him throwing 90 off a mound so his arm should work fine there. The reasoning for moving him would be that for the most part, and particularly at this moment in MLB history, it is way easier to acquire around 30 HR at 1B then it is in the OF. Of course, Murphy could then move to 1st if they wanted to add a 2B or SS instead. Not saying this is what should be done but I am surprised I have not heard it as an option at all. - Alex
You haven't heard any rumblings about moving Ike Davis to rightfield because it's a really bad idea. Ike Davis belongs at first. It's really that simple.
Hey Toby, I know it\'s a little early, but exciting to think about. ?Any idea who the Mets might look to take in the 2013 draft? A lot of mocks have them looking pitcher at Bobby Wahl. ?You\'re thoughts?Yali asks:
Does the Mets 11th pick of next years draft get protected since they basically are only drafting 11th because the Pirates were unable to sign the 9th pick of last years draft?Yali's question first. No, the Mets' 11th overall pick is NOT protected this year. The rule is that the top 10 picks are protected. In 2013, that includes the teams with the nine worst overall records, and the Pirates, who pick up a compensation pick for failing to sign their 2012 first rounder Mark Appel from Stanford. The Mets finished with the 10th worst overall record at 74-88. The 2013 draft order is here at MLB Trade Rumors.
Mets farmhands will put up sweet-looking numbers in Las Vegas. Everyone does. The average hitter will see his numbers rise 25% moving from Buffalo to Vegas. Adjust accordingly. I wonder whether some types of hitters are helped more than others. I have not crunched the numbers, but often extreme environments help or hurt one handed hitters more than others.
As with pitchers however, pay attention to walk and strikeout rates for hitters. One key early question for 2013 will be whether Matt den Dekker can improve on his 6.4 K/BB ratio (90 K/14 BB in 77 games in 2012).
With the lack outfield prospects in the Mets Farm System, what are your thoughts on Aderlin Rodriguez shifting to left field and provide a possible power outfield bat? Being blocked by David Wright and Ike Davis, this looks like a good fit if he can play the outfield.
I think this is a really bad idea. Aderlin Rodriguez is 20 years old and is currently working at third base for advanced-A St. Lucie.
Tags: Aderlin Rodriguez, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
Since his rough first 30 days after injury return, he seems to hae performed o.k., but he still is in AA and turns 26 this fall.
Tags: Mailbag, Reese Havens, Toby Hyde
As someone who watches Aderlin Rodriguez's at bats, how lost does he look against lefties? ?He is only hitting .127 against them. ?I'd be interested in your take on his chances of being anything more than a platoon guy or pinch hitter. ?He seems to be making great strides this year, but those splits are pretty serious.
Tags: Aderlin Rodriguez, Analysis, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
With Josh Thole headed back to NYC to be evaluated for a concussion, the emails rolled in about the potential replacements on the farm.?Here's the takeaway: there are no good options. Josh Thole is valuable on his own, and the 2012 Mets will dearly miss his production while he's away.
I love your page. I was wondering if you ever thought about doing a top 10 ranking each week where you could have prospects move up or down depending on how there doing recently or if a new prospect burts onto the scene, like ESPN does with nba rookies or teams each week. I know it may be time intensive but I and probably a lot of other people would look out for each week
Sun, I don't have any interest in doing updated rankings on a weekly basis. I just don't think one week of baseball carries that much significance in either the Major or minors. It would be a constant exercise in painful, small sample-size theater. The scouting information does not change that dramatically either. I've never even done an in-season re-ranking of Mets prospects. Perhaps, this year, I'll do a set of shorter rankings on the eve of the June draft.
i like jordany i like him alot but what is going to happen with him. id like to see him starting in cf this year. but i realize that probably wont happen but how long until he will be ready. you have seen him alot more then me. how long dose it take for someone to learn a new position and be ready to start at citi. and lastly am i just way off base will he even be the starting CF in buffalo with kirk in right and lowen or baxter in left or will the mets leave him at second what are your thoughts.First things first. Valdespin will go to AAA Buffalo. Sandy Alderson suggested the other day that he would play multiple positions so lets say he mostly plays second base and centerfield with a little bit of shortstop mixed in. ?And yes, when Valdespin plays center in Buffalo, Kirk Nieuwenhuis will likely move to right.
As for how long it takes a guy to learn a new position, it depends on the player, and on the position. In Valdespin's case, in center, there's really a chance he could be a competent outfielder in relatively short order - say a few months if he really works at it. He's fast underway and has a good first step, two very important attributes for center field. Valdespin has a slight head start because he started taking fly balls in winter ball. Primarily, he'll have to learn how to make reads off the bat. Secondly, he'll need to learn some of the mechanics and the footwork of the longer outfield throwing motion, the right way to make corrections on the move, and scoop grounders.
Tags: Jordanny Valdespin, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
I'm just doing some free thinking but wouldn't it make sense for the Mets to consider some?position?changes for some of their more prominent minor leaguers?
1. If Fernando Martinez's knees are bad couldn't he be switched to 1B? If he could stay healthy there (and recover his batting stroke) he might be a more valuable trade chip for the Mets.
Oakland recently dfa'd powell+miller, as a result of the gonzalez+cahill trades...any chance that the mets are interested in some cheap younger players with professional experience (rather than foolishly giving up something significant for a seth smith)? Also, with the understanding that every GM values every player differently, now that we have seen what gonzalez+latos got back for their teams, if niese could even come close to that, how can the mets not pull the trigger, if they are offered similar value?
From the email, Kevin asks:
I recently read that Wilmer?Flores?played a few games at 2B in the Caribbean.? I'm curious if this move comes from the direction of the Mets front office, the coaching staff of that particular team, or some combination of both.? Basically I am wondering how winter leagues handle things like this.Basically, winter league teams play to win their games. ?In this case, manager Don Baylor thought that playing Alberto Gonzalez at shortstop and Wilmer Flores at third most days was the best infield alignment he had. Flores has played 13 games at third this year in the Venezuelan Winter League, two and third and two at second. ?When he played second, Sean Burroughs played third. ?By the way, Burroughs, who was once a very well regarded prospect is 31.
Tags: Analysis, Mailbag, Wilmer Flores, Toby Hyde
If Scooter Gennett were in the organization, would he jump to the front of all second baseman? I'm thinking the Brewers may need a bat to replace fielder, and we have more than enough thirdbase prospects (not to mention blog fav Daniel Murphy). ?Would you listen if the conversation started with David Wright for Scooter Gennett and Jonathan Lucroy?No. ?Why?
You know what happened to pitcher Steve Matz? I know he missed the 2010 season due to TJS, and that he was scheduled to pitch this summer in SS or rookie ball. I can't find any stats on him though, did he miss the 2011 season as well?Yup, Steven Matz, who had Tommy John Surgery in May of 2010, was scheduled to return during the 2011 season, but had a setback, including elbow soreness, and did not pitch in competitive games in 2011. ?The full recovery time for Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months, and my unscientific observation is that younger pitchers seems to take on the longer side of that period with more side effects in their recovery.
Tags: Mailbag, Matt den Dekker, Toby Hyde
You have not written anything about Gee over his last two starts against what you would call ?"real" major league lineups! ?The best era logged in first 4 mlb starts by a Mets pitcher since 1995 and you don't have anything to say?? ?Why?? ?You owe this kid an apology for your lack of being a prognosticator!! ?You need to look beyond the stat line. ?Go back and look at the film of him being a pitcher. ?Keeping the mlb bats guessing by not throwing what they would normally look for even in a hitters count. ?Plus, he sets them up. ?He undisputedly (sic), has had successin 4 quality starts at the mlb level. ?So, suck up your pride and tellCouple things here.
everyone you were wrong when you said it would be ugly or you didn't believe it would go well.
Tags: Analysis, Dillon Gee, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
Q: Anthony asked about Reese Havenss:
It seems like he was injured a long time ago. Has he been shut down for the
Tags: Mailbag, Reese Havens, Toby Hyde
Please email me questions here.? Include name and hometown please for mailbags in the future.
Tags: Brad Holt, Eddie Kunz, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
A few points before we get started about secondbase.? First, secondbase is kind of the hybrid position.? Guys who play second usually end up there for one of the following reasons: they lack the overall athleticism (hands and feet) for SS, they don't have the arm for either position on the left side of the diamond, or they don't have the power to profile as the typical 3B.? While it's easy to write about what secondbasemen are not, they also have to cover a fair amount of range on the infield, possess sure hands and the toughness to hang in at the bag on doubleplays.? Secondly, whereas minor league shortstops who don't become starters can find a home as a 2B or utility player, the same is not the case for 2B who usually lack the versatility to handle other positions capably.
Nate W asks:
Tags: Joshua Satin, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
Would Junior Guerra have made your top prospect list before his failed drug test? Does he have any future whatsoever after he returns from his suspension?
Tags: Daily Recap, Mailbag, Toby Hyde
I know this seems like a stupid question but can you just, as a favor, break down the mets minor league system teams. What I mean is order them from Mets down to the lowest level... I don't know what GCL means... I understand the basics of single a, double a, triple a, but I don't know all of the in between levels and lower levels than single A... I didn't know hitting under .200 in any possible league was acceptable.
ED: The last line refers to Javier Rodriguez.And so, Toby responds:
The Mets farm system consists of the following seven domestic teams, ranked from closest to the big leagues to farthest away:
It's a great question Mike. I've said for a while that Donnie could be trying to turn Mobley's roster spot, once it's officially available, into a possible two-for-one deal with Steph. Some outlets have picked up on it. It makes total sense. So, if that were the case Ewing would be out for now but he's right on top of the Knicks list of players to add. Ewing is a talent, and no one's been higher on him than this site, except maybe Donnie himself. I think the kid will get a shot, I'm just not as confident as I once was that it's here. He's an NBA player. One thing hasn't changed, Marbury is the first domino. BTW go Danes!
Hey Tommy- Danillo - his best asset is his cockiness - he may look confused sometimes on the court but not scared or nervous!! being confused is only normal for a rookie even more for an international rookie!! his shot is pure as Allan houstons his only setback can be injuries!! his cockiness is what u need to survive in new york. - Pavlos Georgy
Tags: TKB Mailbag
So let's take the opportunity, again, to open up the lines of discussion. I really enjoy the level of intelligence that each and every one of you possess, so fire away.
Please send them to firstname.lastname@example.org, or by simply dropping them in the "contact theknicksblog" bin on the left.
Tags: TKB Mailbag
Tags: TKB Mailbag
So thank you.
And please keep them coming. Any older comments or questions that you'd like to ask, feel free.
Tags: TKB Mailbag
Okay so let's get started.
What with all the speculation flying around about what the Knicks need to do in order to get under the salary cap to make a run at Lebron James after the 2010 season, it seems like there?s a common misconception that they?re only one bad contract away from being able to do it, when it seems like the truth of the matter is, Walsh will have to shed MULTIPLE bad contracts AND concede letting ?the younger players like Lee, Robinson and Chandler walk if he?s going to be able to lure Lebron to the Garden. Can you guys set the record straight once and for all and give us a few scenarios outlining EXACTLY what needs to be done to sign Lebron outright? - Jesse
Yeah! This is how you start this thing Jesse. That's what I'm talking about, great question. Ok, we've been studying this thing alot and there are certain variables that are undefined, but let's do our best. According to the salary cap, a team has to get under the cap for every dollar they want to spend on a free agent. So in other words, if Lebron wants $25 million the Knicks need to be $25 million under the cap. The cap for this year is 58 million and it's been going up year after year, so let's guess that in 2010 it'll be in the 61 million range. Heading into the 2010 offseason the team will be at 45 million and need to make decisions on Nate and Lee. Let's say Nate gets 5 million per and Lee gets 8 that takes you to 58 million, but if they don't extend Collins you can wipe off his 2.7, so you'd have roughly 6 million to spend. Chandler is safe until 2011-12.? Obviously if you kept Curry and Crawford and moved ZBo's 17, you'd have 23 but that doesn't take into account the draft picks. So in essence what I'm saying is to keep Nate and Lee they have to find a way to trade ZBo or the combination of Curry, Crawford and Jared Jefferies. If the can rid all 4, that's $46 million off the books leaving you with Gallinari (3), Chandler (2), Lee (8?), Nate(5?) and a handful of draft picks (8 mill?)? ( $26 millionish?) with the idea of maybe signing Duhon (6?) So you've got 32 million to sign a few. The question is can they rid, Curry, Crawford, Zbo and Jefferies...Yes, it's complex and why patience is key.Do you think that Stephon Marbury can re-start his career, after this year when he is with a new team? - Justin M.
Justin, frankly I'm not sure. The thing that I've always said about Steph is that he's never been taught the little things to be a solid role player. He's an awful half court defender. On the ball he can't get over screens, and if he's guarding a two guard he has trouble with size. Defense is more than just effort, and you'd wish that he had been coached at some point during his career. Sure, he can help a really good team like the Spurs, but does he mesh with Parker, Duncan and Manu? Or the Celtics? Do they want to risk their chemistry? I think his best bet is to forget he's Starbury, go to the Spurs if they'll have him, and learn from? Pop.Which players on the roster do you think figure into the Knicks' plans moving forward?