Matthew Cerrone started MetsBlog.com as a project in college, generated 300,000,000 page views and 30,000 posts in 10 years, partnered with SportsNet New York and turned his hobby into a career. In 2011, SNY hired Matt to be Executive Editor and Director of Digital Content for their network of team sites, video content and podcasts.
The Winter Meetings wrapped up on Thursday in San Diego, but lots of questions remain for the Mets. Among them...
Rounding out the rotation...
Rick Porcello could have signed a multiyear deal, according to people aware of his market.
he Winter Meetings are in full swing in San Diego, and the Mets still have a lot they need to accomplish if they hope to be one of the top contenders for the NL East title in 2020.
As Brodie Van Wagenen hopes to check off some of the Mets' needs, MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone dipped into his mailbag...
Joyce Kanopka (via e-mail): I don't understand why the Mets aren't trading Edwin Diaz. What evidence is there that he can ever get back to pitching like he did for the Mariners?
The Winter Meetings are in full swing in San Diego, and the Mets still have a lot they need to accomplish if they hope to be one of the top contenders for the NL East title in 2020.
As Brodie Van Wagenen hopes to check off some of the Mets' needs, MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone dipped into his mailbag...
Vincent Palma (via e-mail): If the Pirates have interest in Brandon Nimmo, it seems like there should be a lot of options to make a deal with them. Who do you think is Van Wagenen's target?
During the course of the day, I often text and talk with a variety of MLB insiders to better understand what is happening in the hot stove.
The following are insights, ideas and notes gathered from recent conversations with team sources, rival executives, reporters, front office assistants and talent evaluators...
Adding to the bullpen...
My hunch is the Mets will sign at least one relief pitcher before the end of the Winter Meetings.
The Winter Meetings are in full swing in San Diego, and the Mets still have a lot they need to accomplish if they hope to be one of the top contenders for the NL East title in 2020.
As Brodie Van Wagenen prepares to wheel and deal, MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone dipped into his mailbag...
1) Gorman (via Twitter): Seeing a lot of people including top prospect Andres Gimenez in trade scenarios. Is it because he's blocked by Amed Rosario? Who has more trade value, Rosario or Gimenez? Is Gimenez good enough to consider using Rosario to acquire a superstar?
If the people you are referring to are our fellow fans, I wouldn't worry about it because being an Armchair GM is what we are supposed to do this time of year. It's part of the fun.
The Winter Meetings are in full swing in San Diego, and the Mets still have a lot they need to accomplish if they hope to be one of the top contenders for the NL East title in 2020.
As Brodie Van Wagenen prepares to wheel and deal, MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone dipped into his mailbag...
Nicholas Giordano (via Twitter): Is there a realistic scenario where the Mets can dump Jed Lowrie's or Jeurys Familia's contracts and still improve the team? I don't want to attach J.D. Davis/Dominic Smith to a trade just so we can dump salary.
Sadly, I think the only way Van Wagenen can move Lowrie and/or Familia and their full contracts is to either bring back an equally risky and bad contract or do what you don't want and include Davis and/or Smith.
The Mets need and are looking to add more starting pitching. However, the team's path to the postseason in 2020 may rest more on what they get from Steven Matz and Marcus Stroman than what the Mets get from the hot stove market this winter.
Zack Wheeler is officially gone, having signed a five-year deal to join the Phillies. The pitcher replacing him will either be Seth Lugo or someone specifically acquired to be their fifth starter. In all likelihood, whomever it is will almost certainly not translate into 15-16 team wins like Wheeler did the past two seasons.
Sure, the Mets could score more and/or not allow as many runs late in games so they're more successful when Jacob deGrom is regularly brilliant. For instance, despite winning his second straight Cy Young Award with a 2.53 ERA, the Mets were 14-18 in games that he started in 2019. That stat is painful every time I see it.
Earlier this week, SNY's Andy Martino reported that Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis or Dominic Smith could be required in order to trade for Brewers closer Josh Hader.
This makes sense, but McNeil isn't going to be traded.
"He has significant value to the Mets, not just on field, but as it pertains to their budget," an NL East executive told me this past weekend. "I see no reason when push comes to shove that they'd deal him."
There is mutual interest between the Mets and free-agent Rick Porcello, according to insiders aware of his offseason goals. This is good news because he's a perfect fit for the Mets.
As I wrote two weeks ago, the Phillies and Braves are among several teams that have been more aggressive than the Mets when it comes to signing Zack Wheeler. Insiders predicted to me weeks ago that Wheeler will get five years and $100 million, which at this point appears to be a foregone conclusion.
The same people also keep saying the Mets are more likely to let Wheeler walk in favor of a less expensive, more reliable, consistent, veteran starting pitcher to join the back of their rotation.
There were dozens of players across baseball who were non tendered on Monday and instanty became free agents. The following five should all come at a reasonable price and I hope will be under consideration by Brodie Van Wagenen and the Mets...
The Mets are reportedly looking to add a center fielder. Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo can both play center field and their bats are needed in the lineup, so a defense-first option could make for a strong fit on the roster.
When it comes to prospects, I talk to a lot of people in and around baseball. I listen to people within the Mets organization. I read every list published online, and I talk to a variety of minor-league reporters, experts and scouts. As a result, I end every season with a notebook full of names that are most mentioned when talking about the team's farm system.
Interestingly, unlike previous seasons, the combination of question marks and potential seemed to result in me being asked about the same three to four names.
Based on those questions and what wound up in my notebook, here is my list of comments about the three most asked about prospects in the Mets' farm system...
The Mets need an experienced, everyday center fielder, specifically Brett Gardner.
The Yankees, though, again have a hole in center filed now that Aaron Hicks is expected to miss a large chunk of the 2020 season due to Tommy John surgery.
This is why earlier this month, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said that he's been in contact with Gardner's agent, despite reports late in the season that their time together had likely come to an end.
"I want to continue playing," Gardner said in October, according to the New York Post. "Physically and mentally I feel great. My family wants me to keep playing. Hopefully, that's here (with the Yankees)."
Despite a rocky start in 2019, Mets C Wilson Ramos hit .350 with 15 extra-base hits during the team's final 45 games and legit push for the final Wild Card spot.
That said, GM Brodie Van Wagenen last winter clearly preferred Yasmani Grandal, who just signed a four-year deal with the White Sox. Instead, he ended up with Ramos, who will be paid $10 million this season, after which he can be a free agent.
There was reported friction between Ramos and Noah Syndergaard. Ramos also struggled to begin the season, he'll turn 33 years old next season and -- between repeated injuries -- his production has been very inconsistent the past five seasons.
The Mets have plenty of internal options when it comes to finding a starting third baseman.
Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Jed Lowrie are all capable of handling the position, so it's quite possible Brodie Van Wagenen looks to add an outfielder instead, knowing McNeil can play in either spot.
The other play this offseason is to go heavy at third base options and put McNeil in the outfield, who looked comfortable and played well in left field this past season. I still think he's a second baseman, but that's a different subject for a different day...
To date, sources aware of the situation say the Braves have so far been more aggressive than the Mets when it comes to signing free-agent RHP Zack Wheeler.
It's their contention the Mets are more likely to let Wheeler walk and instead sign a reliable, consistent, veteran starting pitcher to join their rotation.
MLB people I know all expect Wheeler to field multiple offers of five years and $100 million.
This article was first published in its original form on Dec. 16, 2018
Former Mets closer Billy Wagner received just 17.9 percent of 425 possible votes one year ago when he again missed out on being elected to the Hall of Fame, and his name is back on the ballot again this year.
Sadly, Wagner has consistently fallen short of the 75-percent threshold needed for an induction. He received just 10.7 percent in 2017.
In 16 seasons, Wagner pitched for the Astros, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, and Braves, for whom he collected 422 saves with a 2.31 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 1,196 strikeouts in 903 innings. The opposition hit just .187 against him, while striking out 33 percent of the time, both of which are the most all-time among pitchers who have thrown at least 800 innings during their careers.
One amazing thing to keep in mind about Jacob deGrom winning his second Cy Young award is that at no time during his four-year minor-league career did MLB.com rank him higher than 12 on the Mets' annual top prospect list. Similarly, at no time did he ever appear among the league's Top 100 prospects.
Crazier, he was drafted in 2010 by then-GM Omar Minaya and the Mets with the 272nd overall pick. He missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery and made his big league debut in 2014 as a spot starter, after which then-manager Terry Collins said the organization still viewed him as a future reliever.
"Any time you draft a player, you think he's going to become a big-leaguer," Minaya once told me. "At first they all have upside, otherwise you wouldn't draft him. That being said, it doesn't always go the way you want it to go each time."
As the Mets embark on the 2020 offseason, there are lots of burning questions, including which free agents they should pursue, which 2019 performances were sustainable, and which players in the farm system (if any) should be untouchable...
McNeil, Davis and Jed Lowrie are capable of starting at third base. So, it's difficult to see Van Wagenen shelling out what is likely to be a three-year, $70-80 million deal to get Donaldson.
However, for all of the talk about adding a center fielder or corner outfielder, adding Donaldson would probably be the biggest bang for Van Wagenen's buck.
The fact is, Brandon Nimmo in most comparisons will likely end up being the better option in the field. At the same time, in addition to providing a major upgrade and credibility at the plate, Donaldson will likely be the best option in the field at third base.
MLB executives believe at least one of Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor or Kris Bryant will be traded this offseason, according to MLB.com's Jon Morosi.
The way I see it, of the three, Betts is most likely to find a new home. And he's a good fit for the Mets.
Bryant fits the Mets, too. I'm not convinced Chicago will end up trading him, though. Like with Lindor, while it's worth it for each team to listen to offers, the Cubs and Indians have these players under contract for more than just next season.
In the last decade, fewer and fewer players are entering the free agent market when in their prime.
Instead, they tend to sign contract extensions in their younger years, swapping guaranteed money earlier in their career for more money during their prime seasons.
The following two position players, starting pitcher, and reliever are worthy of considering signing to a similar contract extension...
GM Brodie Van Wagenen said Monday that he considers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman possible options next year to join the team's starting rotation.
Technically, this is true. Van Wagenen is simply stating reality. However, I find it hard to believe this is the preferred outcome given how well Lugo pitched in relief this past season.
Similarly, because of his limited repertoire, Gsellman has long proven he's much more effective pitching in relief than in the starting rotation. In either case, as Van Wagenen said, they are options.
Here are four potential scenarios for how things could shake out with the starting rotation in 2020...
Carlos Beltran wasn't my first choice to replace Mickey Callaway, but he was my second.
Here are 5 reasons why I'm excited to have him back in the mix...
1) He's Carlos Beltran
The following six players (and four others) all have value to the Mets, but may also have value to other teams via trade.
I asked two rival team executives and two people in player development if the Mets should keep or push to trade each player.
Here are the results along with my reaction...
For the Mets to build on their 86 wins in 2019, second-year GM Brodie Van Wagenen has some serious work to do. First, the Mets need to figure out how much they're going to spend on player payroll for 2020.
According to work done earlier this week by SNY.tv's Danny Abriano, if the Mets acquire no one and simply dish out raises eight of their arbitration-eligible players, they'll begin next season with a payroll of roughly $174 million.
In other words, unless the Mets are willing to increase their budget, which could bring them close to the $208 million Collective Bargaining Tax (CBT), Van Wagenen might have to get creative when looking to bring in new talent.
In the wake of Joe Girardi joining the Phillies, the Mets are continuing their interview process with five known candidates to replace Mickey Callaway as their manager.
Here is what I like and dislike about each candidate...
Why I like him: I hear Perez and I think MLB Network Radio. However, inside baseball, he's known for his outstanding work managing Columbia in the World Baseball Classic, as well as in Puerto Rico, where he won two Manager of the Year awards and multiple championships.
He also has experience as a big-league hitting coach and bench coach.
To get back impact value in trade, it requires giving up impact value in trade.
And that's where the Mets' breakout hitter J.D. Davis comes into play.
Davis, 26, exceeded expectations in 2019, which marked his first full big-league season despite making his debut with the Astros in 2017. At the time of his first promotion, Davis had been Houston's ninth-best prospect.
It's easy to scapegoat Edwin Diaz for the Mets missing the postseason by just four games in 2019.
However, high-leverage relievers not named Mariano Rivera have a long history of up-and-down seasons, which is exactly why Diaz should be on next year's roster.
Things change and so can Diaz -- and he doesn't have to go far to get there...
Mets 1B Dominic Smith has gone from top prospect to major-league question in less than 18 months.
Entering 2017, the then-21-year-old Smith was ranked the organization's second-best prospect and the top first base prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com.
However, the emergence of Pete Alonso in Triple-A in 2018 pushed aside Smith, who ended that season hitting just .224/.255/.420 while striking out in 23 percent of his at-bats. With Smith having struggled and Alonso having surged, Smith was asked to learn left field before the 2019 season.
These three Mets didn't have strong seasons in 2019, but there's reason to believe that the trio could turn things around in 2020 and beyond ...
Robinson Cano
It was a tale of two seasons for Cano, who is 36 years old, under contract the next four years and due just under $80 million. The problem is, given his 2018 suspension for PEDs, his age and his up-and-down 2019, it's almost impossible to know what to expect of him in 2020.
He started well, hitting .270 with three home runs through the end of April, and then everything fell apart. He looked out of sync at the plate and totally out of gas during May and June. Then came random injuries, issues with Mickey Callaway about running out ground balls and what seemed like a a trip to the injured list caused partially by spite.
The Mets and Brodie Van Wagenen are knee-deep in their search for a new manager after recently firing Mickey Callaway. However, they're not the only team looking for a new leader and coaching staff for next season.
In the last few weeks, seven other teams began the same process, including the Phillies, who fired Gabe Kapler on Thursday.
I recently surveyed my usual group of insiders, which includes a handful of front office executives, talent evaluators, agents and former players, to learn how each opening should be viewed by potential managerial candidates.
Here is the final collective rankings, including who each team is rumored to be reportedly interviewing and if they overlap with the Mets. I then give my predictions for how this game of managerial musical chairs will end...
The Mets and their fans were taken on an emotional roller coaster this past season, going from hopeful to hopeless, back to hopeful, then landing in a cold bucket of September reality.
"We're definitely not satisfied with where we're at," Michael Conforto told reporters after the team was eliminated from playoff contention on Sept. 25. "We want to play in October. That's the goal. I think we have the guys in here to do it. We have to put six months of baseball together and we didn't do that this year."
The bullpen has been the default answer when media and fans debate what the Mets need to improve when building a better team for 2020. However, for me, it's third on the list...
It didn't end the way we hoped, but the Mets' 2019 was nevertheless a year to remember...
Pete Alonso
It can be argued that Jacob deGrom is the MVP. However, Alonso's impact was undeniable.
The Mets had a roller coaster season -- again. They took us from optimism to the morgue, back to the peak of hope and then to a slow stop before the end of September.
It wasn't all for nothing, though. If Brodie Van Wagenen, his staff and players can learn from the following five lessons from this past season, they stand a better chance of success in 2020.
The no-name Brewers finished with the 10th-worst ERA and FIP and were the sixth-lowest scoring team in the National League. However, because they caught fire at the right time, they ran past the Mets and four other teams during September to win the second Wild Card spot.
Being a manager in New York is a unique animal. It's a totally different gig than can be found in another market and certainly isn't for the faint of heart.
To be successful and survive in this town, which has two baseball teams -- one of which is the most successful in sports history -- it's my contention that the manager must have had previous success in front of New York fans and/or experience as a big-league manager.
It also helps if the person is battle-tested in front of dozens of local reporters, enters with a strong relationship with members of the media or has experience working on-air, such as Aaron Boone.
Carlos Beltran has support throughout Brodie Van Wagenen's front office, and is one of the many names on their current list of potential managers, according to people close to both player and GM.
Beltran, 42, interviewed to manage the Yankees in 2017 just two weeks after winning a World Championship with the Astros and officially retiring as a player. He was later named a special adviser to Yankees GM Brian Cashman.
I loved Beltran as a player. He's largely misunderstood and under-appreciated, which is why he'll always be one of my favorites to ever wear a Mets uniform. However, this is also why I'm both leery and intrigued.
Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters at the Winter Meetings last offseason that he wanted to acquire a tried-and-true, everyday center fielder. He went so far as to mention then-free agent A.J. Pollock by name when indicating the type of player he felt the team needed.
In the end, Pollock inked a five-year deal to join the Dodgers, while the Mets mostly used Juan Lagares in center field this season (where he was worth -2 DRS) while also giving time to Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, and others.
If the Mets are again in the market for a center fielder this offseason, the Red Sox could come into play...
In his final start of the season, Jacob deGrom allowed just two hits while striking out seven during 7.0 scoreless innings against the Marlins.
As a result, it seems like a lock that he will win his second consecutive Cy Young Award.
DeGrom leads all NL pitchers in WAR, regardless of the system being used to calculate the stat. He has 6.9 WAR, according to Baseball Reference and 6.7 WAR according to FanGraphs.
In addition to the Mets needing to finish hot in hopes of snatching the final Wild Card spot, it would help GM Brodie Van Wagenen's off-season strategy if the following four players finished strong as well:
The difference between Diaz being a bust or being the closer he was for Seattle in 2018 will determine whether Van Wagenen feels the need to spend big this winter on another reliever.
On Thursday, MLB.com named Mark Vientos as the Mets' Hitting Prospect of the Year.
Vientos' stats from this past season are not overly impressive as he hit .255 with a .300 OBP, 12 home runs and 27 doubles in 111 games in Single A. However, at just 19 years old and two years removed from being a senior in high school, because he made improvements and completed his first 100-game season, he is finally getting the recognition he deserves as a potential big-league third baseman.
"He's as close to a professional hitter as you'll find in the minors," a team insider told me during spring training. "He's got raw power, but needs to start going the other way more and reduce the hitch in his swing, which is something coaches will work on with him this spring."
Pete Alonso is having one of the best seasons by a position player in Mets history.
He's already set numerous records, and since he should get another 40 at-bats or so this season, he will likely hit his 50th home run (and possibly more) before all is said and done.
He better win Rookie of the Year.
Instead of catering to Noah Syndergaard's request to pitch to Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera -- which they are reportedly doing on Wednesday -- they should be fixing the issue in order to make Wilson Ramos Syndergaard's top choice.
Bobby Valentine says it will take more than the just two players to resolve the issue.
"It's not just a player situation. It's a situation that involves the whole team," Valentine told me when recording the former Mets manager's new podcast, The Bobby V Experience. "I would involve the pitching coach, the catching coach, the catchers, and maybe a pitcher or two that understand where Syndergaard is coming from and figure out the true problem because sometimes it's only a make-shift problem."
The Mets are one of nine teams to never have a player hit 50 home runs in single season.
Pete Alonso is three home runs short of removing the Mets from the list. He also has a good chance to break Yankees OF Aaron Judge's single-season rookie home run record of 52.
The above two records are nice. However, if Alonso remains healthy and strong as he gets older, 2019 will prove to be the beginning of what has the potential to be an incredible career.
In addition to picking up 3.0 games in the standings, the Mets also need to leapfrog four teams -- Cubs, Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks -- in order to land in the Wild Card game.
The Mets' remaining schedule includes two games against the Diamondbacks, followed by playing the Dodgers, Rockies, Reds, Marlins and Braves. Unfortunately, out of the above teams, the Mets have only beaten up on Miami, have struggled against the Dodgers and Braves, and have played mostly even with the Rockies and Reds.
To be fair, the Mets have been performing much better than earlier in the season. Plus, 12 of their final 18 games are at Citi Field (including their final seven of the season). They are 40-29 at home, 34-41 on the road.
Though still possible, the likelihood of the Mets reaching the postseason is dwindling by the day.
As a result of losing six straight games to the Braves and Cubs, they now have just a 9.6 percent chance of reaching the playoffs down from a 51 percent just two weeks ago, according to FanGraphs.
Nevertheless, whether the Mets make the postseason or not, they will benefit this winter and next season thanks to what I consider five important positive developments during the past few months.
In case you haven't noticed, Jeff McNeil has fallen in the race for the National League batting title. However, as his batting average has dropped, his power is up.
On July 30, McNeil led the batting title race with a .335 average. Dodgers OF Cody Bellinger was second, trailing by just one percentage point.
However, on Wednesday, McNeil is hitting .324, with Anthony Rendon of the Nationals now leading the league with a .338 average.
Home runs are nice, but I'll always prefer watching the elite pitching matchup, which is exactly what we're going to see tonight in Washington, D.C when the Mets face the Nationals.
Jacob deGrom (2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 214 strikeouts in 169.0 innings) will start for the Mets.
Max Scherzer (2.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 200 strikeouts in 142.2 innings) will start for the Nationals.
Two aces. Face to face. And both again competing for the National League Cy Young Award.
Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen was right to handle the trade deadline the way he did, and that won't change no matter how the season ends.
I would have done the opposite, which I explained in this article from July, during which point the Mets were nine games under .500 and six games out of a Wild Card spot. But four weeks removed, I can see and understand why Van Wagenen was a buyer not a seller.
Instead of acquiring prospects in exchange for Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Justin Wilson, Todd Frazier and others, Van Wagenen held on to his top players and used his own farm system to add Marcus Stroman.
The Mets went on an incredible, near-unbelievable run, but it had to end at some point. And the fact that they hit a wall this past weekend against the Braves is not a surprise, according to an NL talent evaluator.
"They looked to be out of gas, which had to happen eventually," he told me.
About a month and a half ago, the Mets were 40-51 and just five losses away from having a worse record than the Marlins. The team then went 27-9 to bring themselves within 1.5 games of the final NL Wild Card spot.
Jacob deGrom and the Mets start a huge three-game series against the Braves at Citi Field on Friday night.
It's nice to have the best pitcher in baseball taking the mound the day after completing a sweep of the Indians, who are just a half game back of the second American League Wild Card, isn't it?
The Mets have been hot, but so has Atlanta. Exactly like the Mets, the Braves have won 11 of their past 15 games. Unfortunately, two of those 11 wins came at New York's expense when the two teams met in Atlanta last week.
The Mets are entering the second game of a nine-game homestand against the Indians, Braves, and Cubs that could go a long way toward determining their fate when it comes to playing in October.
Here are five storylines to keep an eye on...
At the end of the homestand, the Mets hit the road for six games against the Phillies and Nationals, both of whom are competing with New York for the NL Wild Card. This is all the more reason why it's important for the Mets to take advantage while they're home.
