1. How did Mike Francesca break the Jason Bay to the Mets story on his Tuesday program after teasing it Monday? How did all of the writers both on the Mets beat and on the national beat miss it?

2. More importantly what does the signing do for the Mets?

An Upgrade

Immediately, the 31-year-old Bay will improve the Mets left field position.  In 699 plate appearances in 2009, Mets LF hit .276/.352/.421 with 35 2B, 9 3B and just 12 HR. In 2009 for Boston, Bay hit .267/.384/.537 with 29 2B and a career-high 36 home runs. Bay's ability to get on base and hit for power will be welcome additions to the Mets lineup.

However, Mets pitchers, should reasonably fear Bay's work in right field at Citi Field. Bay's Ultimate Zone Rating in 2009 was -13. By UZR's calculations, he has cost his team at least 10 runs afield every year since 2007, and the only year in which he has been a positive contributor defensively was 2006. Clay Davenport's system also rates Bay as a below average defender. Moreover, he's likely to become a worse defender as he ages.

Value vs. Holliday

The Mets have reportedly signed Bay for $66 million over four years ($16.5 million annually) with an "easy" vesting option for the fifth year that will push the deal's total value to roughly $80 million. As Dave Studeman points out, Bay fit the Mets need for both a left fielder and a power hitter. To me, the Mets' needs, and market considerations, render the analysis here at Fangraphs which calls the signing a "significant overpay" based on a market value of $3.5 million per WAR, a little limited. The Mets needed a left fielder who hits for power.  They needed a player who can help them make a run at the Phillies.

The question for me is whether the money they spent on Bay would have been better spent on Matt Holliday. Following Bay's signing, ESPN reported that Holliday's agent, Scott Boras, is now asking teams for roughly $18 million dollars annually, or $1.5 more than the Mets are paying Bay.

If the ESPN report is accurate, the Mets will be paying nearly top dollar for the second best player on the market, for a similar contract length.  That's not good. To recap here are Bay and Holliday's WAR valuations since 2005:

BayHoliday
20056.43.3
20065.54.4
200708
20082.96.3
20093.55.7
Holiday has been the better player, by a significant amount every year since 2007.   What reasonable explanation is there to think that Bay, who is a year and a half older, will be better moving forward?

Offense Only

Keith Law argues that Fenway's Green monster makes Bay appear worse defensively than he actually is. However, he ranked as a below average defender even before he reached Boston.   By contrast, among LF with more than 600 innings, Holliday was the seventh best defender this past season and has been consistently above average.

Even if you accept Law's argument, that fielding statistics generated in left field at Fenway Park are invalid, Holliday still outperforms Bay when examining only the two players' offensive contributions. Take a look at the following table which examines the two by VORP, which is measured in runs not wins, and considers only a player's offense, for the last four years:

BayHolliday
200648.757.7
20075.676.7
200849.461.9
200946.458.2
To Yank or Not?

Is the signing entirely explained by the fact that the Mets are enamored of Jason Bay's pull approach?   Hittracker.com,  has the scatter plots of the true ending distances for all of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday's 2009 homeruns. The scatterplot for Bay comes first.   All  but five of Bay's homeruns were hit to the left of straightaway center field,  and most were pulled towards the left-field corner.

Matt Holliday's scatter chart follows.   Unlike Bay, Holliday uses the whole field to hit his home runs.

Here   are all of the home runs hit at Citi Field in 2009:

Citi Field looks like  it would cost both ballplayers some long balls.  Primarily, it would cost Bay on balls hit into the left-field corner and it would cost Holliday on balls to right center.   Is this a significant enough reason to prefer Bay over Holliday?   Not for me it's not.

Moving Forward

Which player would age better over the life of his contract?   Entering 2009, PECOTA,  showed Holliday holding his value longer than Bay.

The Organization

What does the Bay signing tell us about how the Mets view the future of prospects Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez?   Probably not much. On the other hand, it indicates that the team realizes that it can not count on Jeff Francoeur repeating his Mets half of the 2009 season.  Martinez, who will be 21 to start 2010, now looks headed for Buffalo, where he will try to  stay healthy for the first time in a full season. Should  Francouer return to his  below replacement level struggles that marked his time before the Mets, and Martinez is hitting in AAA,  he will return for his second chance in the big leagues. Also likely, Ike Davis will join Fernando Martinez to start 2010 at Buffalo. Unless the Mets add a first baseman, Davis has a chance to hit his way into the New York lineup during the 2010 season.

Long-term,  the presence of both Davis and Martinez potentially limits the Mets options with Bay. In theory, the Mets could move Bay to firstbase at the end of his contract to mitigate his poor defense in left field. However, Mets fans expect Davis to be the Mets starting first baseman by 2011 or even by late 2010. Davis's potential ascendance would keep Bay in the outfield. On the other hand, Davis who played in the outfield for the US team at the baseball World Cup this fall, could potentially move to the outfield to accommodate Bay.  Shifting players in this manner hardly seems like the recipe for replicating the strong team defense which helped carry the Mets in 2007 and 2008.

Conclusion

I have been a fan of Jason Bay for a long time. However, he was not the best leftfielder on the market this winter,  that honor belonged to Matt Holliday.   As it now stands, Holliday appears to be poised to make more money than Bay, both on a per anum basis  and on the lifetime of the contract.

The Mets got their left fielder. He gives the team a better chance to win in 2010. Even so, I think the team picked the wrong leftfielder.

Tags: Analysis, Majors, Toby Hyde

 (Andy Marlin)
(Andy Marlin)

Mets INF Asdrubal Cabrera will play for Venezuela during the World Baseball Classic, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

The WBC begins on March 6 and ends with the championship on March 22.

Cabrera, 31, played through a left knee injury for the majority of the second half of last season.

Tags: Asdrubal Cabrera, Noah Syndergaard
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 (Jeff Curry)
(Jeff Curry)

The Mets have avoided arbitration with C Rene Rivera, agreeing with him on a one-year deal worth $1.75 million, the team announced Friday.


Today is the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Head here to see the other Mets who are eligible >> Read more!


Rivera, 33, hit .222 with a .291 OBP and .341 SLG with six HR and 26 RBI in 65 games last season.

He threw out 30 percent of would-be base-stealers.

Tags: Rene Rivera
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 (Wendell Cruz)
(Wendell Cruz)

Mets RHP Jacob deGrom expects to begin throwing soon, he told reporters Friday at Citi Field.

DeGrom also said the Mets have not yet approached him about a contract extension. He is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason and is under team control through the 2020 season.

He earned $607,000 last season and is projected to make $4.5 million in 2017.

DeGrom had a 3.04 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 143 strikeouts in 148 innings (24 starts) last season before a pinched ulnar nerve in his right elbow resulted in season-ending surgery on Sept. 20.

Tags: Jacob deGrom

Sandy Alderson is surrounded by reporters during the 2013 MLB Winter Meetings (Credit: Manning-USA TODAY Sports)
Sandy Alderson is surrounded by reporters during the 2013 MLB Winter Meetings (Credit: Manning-USA TODAY Sports)

MLB's 2016 Winter Meetings will begin Monday, Dec. 5, from the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center outside Washington, D.C.

The Meetings conclude Thursday morning after the Rule 5 Draft.

In short, the MLB Winter Meetings is a three-and-a-half day conference at a large hotel, where MLB executives, their staffs and managers meet with agents, players and other team's executives, staffs and managers in hopes of working on or completing ways to improve their team. There is also a trade expo and job fair for people looking to work in baseball.

The buzz around the game points to more trades next week than free-agent signings...

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Mets C Rene Rivera and 1B Lucas Duda (Credit: USA Today Images)
Mets C Rene Rivera and 1B Lucas Duda (Credit: USA Today Images)

The Mets and MLB teams have until midnight tonight to decide whether to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players.

If they decide to tender (offer, guarantee) a contract, the Mets retain team control over that player, after which the two sides are free to begin negotiating his 2016 salary. If the Mets decide to non-tender the player, he immediately becomes a free agent and can sign with any team.

This year's arbitration eligible players for the Mets include...

Tags: Lucas Duda, Rene Rivera
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Steven Matz joins Mets Hot Stove 00:04:08
Steven Matz joins Steve Gelbs on Mets Hot Stove to examine his injury history and moving forward with his career.

Mets LHP Steven Matz has been cleared by the Mets and team doctors to proceed with his normal offseason routine, he told WOR radio Thursday.

"The doctors said, 'You're good to go,'" he told WOR's Pete McCarthy.

Matz had surgery in late September to remove a large bone spur from his pitching elbow. He ended his season early due to a rotator cuff impingement, which Sandy Alderson said in November did not require surgery. Instead, Matz received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his left shoulder.

Tags: Steven Matz
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Apr 20, 2016; Duda (21), Cabrera (13), Wright (5) and Walker (20) during a pitching change (Credit: USA TODAY Sports)
Apr 20, 2016; Duda (21), Cabrera (13), Wright (5) and Walker (20) during a pitching change (Credit: USA TODAY Sports)

After years of injuries and ineffectiveness leading to a middle-infield-merry-go-round, the Mets find themselves entering the 2017 season with a stable tandem of shortstop and second base. Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker are both coming off strong performances in 2016 and - ideally - they will provide a stable presence to an infield with question marks in the corners.

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Mets Hot Stove: Matt Harvey 00:04:12
The Mets Hot Stove panel discusses Matt Harvey's injury rehab and their expectations from the right-handed hurler in 2017.

In July, 2016, Mets RHP Matt Harvey had season-ending surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, which was done to restore feeling in his pitching arm and fingers.

According to former Mets GM and SNY analyst Jim Duquette, Harvey is not yet throwing off a mound, but he's feeling strong, on schedule with his post-surgery, off-season throwing program and will be 100% ready for spring training.

"He's had a great deal of time to work out and focus on his body and strength. We expect him to come back and be the Matt Harvey of old," his agent, Scott Boras, told reporters in early November at MLB's GM Meetings. "He's throwing free and easy and he's strong."

Tags: Matt Harvey, Matthew Cerrone
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 (Steve Mitchell)
(Steve Mitchell)

Mets pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training in Port St. Lucie, FL on Feb. 12, the team announced Thursday.

Position players are required to report by Feb. 17.

Earlier this month, the Mets today their official 2017 Spring Training Grapefruit League schedule, which begins Friday, February 24 against the Boston Red Sox in Fort Myers, FL

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McCutchen (22) at bat at PNC Park (Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
McCutchen (22) at bat at PNC Park (Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

The Pirates are shopping OF Andrew McCutchen, with the Nationals in pursuit and hoping to acquire him before Friday, reports Jayson Stark of ESPN.

"Of all the big names available in trade, McCutchen might be the most likely to go," FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal added last night.

In addition to the Nationals, the Giants, Rangers, Mariners, Blue Jays, Orioles and Dodgers, among others, have all reportedly expressed interest in acquiring an outfielder this winter.

The Blue Jays, Giants and Orioles have been linked in rumor to Mets outfielders Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, who the team would like to deal for at least a relief pitcher.

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Mets relievers Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed (Credit: USA Today Sports Images)
Mets relievers Jeurys Familia and Addison Reed (Credit: USA Today Sports Images)

Sandy Alderson has repeatedly said this offseason that he'd like to add at least one reliever to his bullpen before the start of spring training.

"There are some questions in the bullpen that we are going to have to answer, either internally or from external sources," he reiterated during Wednesday's press conference to announce the signing of Yoenis Cespedes.

Alderson said in early November that he has no interest in signing free-agent closers Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon or Kenley Jansen, who similarly have little interest in the Mets because Jeurys Familia is already the team's closer.

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Owners, players, MLB officials and the Major League Baseball Players Association reached an agreement Wednesday night on new a five-year collective bargaining agreement, according to multiple reports.

The deal includes revised rules for free-agent and qualifying offer compensation, the international amateur market and luxury tax threshold.

In the previous labor deal, teams were fined for payrolls exceeding $189 million. In the new agreement, the luxury tax threshold will rise annually from $195 million to $210 million. Teams that repeatedly exceed the payroll threshold by a certain rate will be subject to increasing tax rates, which could reach as high as 90 percent. 

Teams will still lose their first-round pick for signing a free agent that turned down a one-year qualifying offer. However, this rule changes after next season, at which time compensation will include a variety of picks and be based on whether the signing team is under the luxury-tax threshold.

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New York Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) during spring training at Tradition Field. (Brad Barr)
New York Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) during spring training at Tradition Field. (Brad Barr)

The Mets have discussed using RHP Zack Wheeler in the bullpen to start the season, according to MLB.com's Anthony DiComo.

Wheeler, who had Tommy John surgery during March, 2015, was shut down in early September after being examined by Dr. James Andrew and diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his pitching arm.

Wheeler went 11-11 with a 3.54 ERA for the Mets in 2014. In addition to the flexor strain, his return to action was also delayed in 2016 after having an undissolved stitch surgically removed. He also had an anti-inflammatory injection to treat nerve pain...

Tags: Zack Wheeler
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Steve Gelbs interviews Cespedes 00:03:25
SNY's Steve Gelbs caught up with Yoenis Cespedes after the press conference announcing his deal with the Mets on Wednesday.

The Mets reintroduced OF Yoenis Cespedes during a press conference at Citi Field on Wednesday afternoon.

"The last two years in Mets history have been about winning," GM Sandy Alderson said. "It has been clear that when Yoenis Cespedes plays for the Mets, the Mets win."

After COO Jeff Wilpon presented him with a Mets jersey, Cespedes weighed in on his return, saying he was "very proud to once again be back with the New York Mets."

Cespedes said Mets fans have "made New York feel like home," adding that his "goal will be to bring back another World Series championship to this team, to the fans, and the organization"

Tags: Yoenis Cespedes
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BNNY on Cespedes deal 00:06:48
The BNNY panel discusses the ramifications of the Mets' deal with Yoenis Cespedes, who agreed to a four-year, $110-million deal.

The Mets have announced their four-year deal with OF Yoenis Cespedes and will hold a press conference on Wednesday at 5 p.m. at Citi Field, which will air live on SNY.

The deal will be worth $110 million, according to FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.

"Yoenis is a dynamic player who can beat you in many ways," Mets manager Terry Collins said in a press release. "It's a great holiday present for the Mets to know he'll be in the middle of our lineup. He makes everyone around him better."

Tags: Yoenis Cespedes
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 (Rick Osentoski)
(Rick Osentoski)

The Mets have trade RHP Logan Verrett to the Orioles for cash considerations, the team announced.

The trade frees up a 40-man roster spot for recently re-signed OF Yoenis Cespedes.

Verrett, 26, had a 5.20 ERA and 1.56 WHIP while striking out 66 batters in 91 2/3 innings (12 starts, 23 relief appearances) for the Mets last season.

He had a 3.03 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings for the Mets in 2015.

Tags: Logan Verrett

Aug 1, 2016; Alderson speaks to reporters after the trade deadline (Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
Aug 1, 2016; Alderson speaks to reporters after the trade deadline (Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

The Mets are expected to turn their attention to "reconfiguring the outfield," and, "adding to the bullpen," as a source recently told me, now that Yoenis Cespedes is back in the fold.

Also, though it's far from a top priority, I expect the Mets to explore finding a new every-day catcher, "specifically a veteran to handle their pitching staff," as a rival team described it.

How do the Mets reconfigure the outfield?

According to multiple reports since early November, the Mets are open to dealing Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson to eliminate a left-handed bat, open a spot in the outfield and save money on payroll. Alderson has been asked a lot about Michael Conforto, but the Mets are unlikely to deal him because he's got a ton of potential as a hitter, plus he's athletic enough to center field and first base.

The Mets will use next week's MLB Winter Meetings to pin down a deal for Bruce or Granderson. However, because there are several teams in the market for a corner outfielder, I think Alderson could find himself in a situation where he may be able to trade both of these guys, add speed and a reliever and either upgrade at catcher or save money.

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Sandy Alderson (left) talks with Wilpon at Citi Field (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
Sandy Alderson (left) talks with Wilpon at Citi Field (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

According to multiple sources and reports, the Mets want to keep their Opening Day payroll around $140 million, which would leave money in reserve for mid-season acquisitions.

However, their current projected payroll already sits around $145 million when including upcoming raises, players under contract and after bringing back Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker.

At the same time, the Mets will likely save on part of Jeurys Familia's estimated $8.5 million salary, because they don't have to pay him during a potential suspension. Also, trading away Jay Bruce's $13 million would free up additional money.

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New York Mets left fielder Michael Cuddyer warms up before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. (Bill Streicher/USATSI)
New York Mets left fielder Michael Cuddyer warms up before a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. (Bill Streicher/USATSI)

The Twins announced on Monday that they've hired Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter and LaTroy Hawkins as special assistants in the team's baseball operations department.

The trio will work with Twins executives and coaches to ensure development in player understanding of culture, talent evaluation and organizational vision, as well as be available as a resource for players and coaches in the mental and fundamental aspects of the game, the team said in a press release.

Cuddyer played for the Mets in 2015, after which he officially retired from baseball with one year left on his contract.

Tags: Michael Cuddyer, Matthew Cerrone
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Tim Teufel will stay with the Mets as a roving infield instructor and club ambassador, the team announced Friday.

Teufel was replaced as third base coach by Glenn Sherlock on Nov. 15.

He was also offered the position of Triple-A Las Vegas manager, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported.

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The Rays would like to bring back free-agent 1B-OF Steve Pearce, who they traded to the Orioles last summer, according to their local beat reporter Marc Topkin.

Last week, Mets GM Sandy Alderson mentioned Pearce and free-agent OF Jose Bautista as the type of players he might pursue if the Mets are unable to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes.

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New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard throws during the first inning of an exhibition spring training baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday, March 10, 2016, in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)  (Jeff Roberson/AP)
New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard throws during the first inning of an exhibition spring training baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday, March 10, 2016, in Port St. Lucie, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson) (Jeff Roberson/AP)

Mets starter Noah Syndergaard will not participate in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, his agent, Ryan Hamill, said in a statement Tuesday.

"Noah feels his performance the past two years is, in large part, due to his offseason and spring workout routines," Hamill explained. "After consulting with the Mets, and given the injuries that plagued their rotation last year, and his role on the team moving forward, both Noah and the Mets feel it is important to stay in his established routine."

Syndergaard, 24, was diagnosed with a bone spur in his elbow earlier in the season, which did not impact his performance and does not require surgery, Sandy Alderson said in early November.

Tags: Noah Syndergaard
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April 1990: Mets LHP Frank Viola starts at Shea Stadium (Associated Press via MLB.com)
April 1990: Mets LHP Frank Viola starts at Shea Stadium (Associated Press via MLB.com)

The Orioles, who had interest in Frank Viola for their pitching coach vacancy, have hired Roger McDowell for the position, reports Adam Rubin of ESPN.

Viola has been the pitching coach for Triple-A Las Vegas since 2014. He interviewed for, but did not get, the Twins' pitching coach job after the 2014 season.

McDowell, who pitched for the Mets from 1985 to 1989, had spent the last 11 seasons as the pitching coach for the Braves.

Tags: Baltimore Orioles, Matthew Cerrone
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It's a weak market for free-agent relievers. So, free-agent LH reliever Jerry Blevins must have smiled earlier this week when the Cardinals gave LH reliever Brett Cecil a four-year, $30.5 million deal. Because, if that's the high mark for a left-handed reliever, Blevins will be justified asking for at least two years... maybe even three years guarenteed...

Tags: Jerry Blevins, Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker, Matthew Cerrone
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The Mets have talked to multiple teams about trading for an established reliever, under team control, with experience pitching late in games, according to MLB insiders.

The same people say the Rays, White Sox and Padres have been the most aggressive teams offering up relievers that fit this mold, specifically Dave Robertson and Alex Colome.

Why do the Mets want a late-game reliever?

The Mets anticipate their closer, Jeurys Familia, will eventually miss time next season serving a suspension by MLB for domestic violence, despite it looking like those charges may be dropped. If you recall, similar charges against Jose Reyes were dropped a year ago, yet MLB still found enough evidence to suspend him 51 games. The Mets must believe the same could happen to Familia...

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 (Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE)
(Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE)

Former-Mets LHP Johan Santana, who turns 38 years old in March, will attempt a comeback this coming season, reports Chris Cotillo of SB Nation.

Santana has not pitched in the majors since 2012. He had anterior capsule shoulder surgery in 2013 and tore his Achilles tendon in 2014.

He attempted comebacks with the Blue Jays in 2014 and Orioles in 2015 but suffered setbacks that prevented him from returning.

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Jeurys Familia's wife has asked for the simple assault charge against the closer to be dropped, the prosecutor told Jim Baumbach of Newsday.


Familia (27) reacts during the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field (USA TODAY Sports)


Most Recent Updates...

Nov. 19 | 8:55 PM

Familia's wife, now identified as the victim, asked for the charges to be dropped and does not have any concerns about her safety. 

Tags: Jeurys Familia
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Amed Rosario plays in the Futures Game in San Diego July 10 (Gary A. Vasquez)
Amed Rosario plays in the Futures Game in San Diego July 10 (Gary A. Vasquez)

The Mets have added SS Amed Rosario, RHP Marcos Molina, OF Wuilmer Becerra, RHP Chris Flexen, and C Tomas Nido to the 40-man roster, which will protect them from December's Rule 5 Draft.

The deadline for teams to file their list of minor-league players that will be protected was today.

"Generally speaking, college players drafted in 2013 and high school players drafted in 2012 are Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason," Joe Rodgers of the Sports News recently explained.

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