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The Mets will sign OF Curtis Granderson to a four-year, $60 million contract.

Granderson played in just 61 games last season. He hit 40 home runs in each of the previous two seasons with the Yankees.

The Mets better be sure Granderson can return to being what he was with Detroit, where he was a better all-around hitter, "otherwise, he could end up being another Jason Bay," an AL player development person told me yesterday.

After that, an AL scout told me he felt Granderson became pull-happy on inside pitches while with the Yankees, probably because it resulted in easy home runs down their shorter, right-field line.

"That's not going to happen in Citi Field," he said. "They'll be pop outs, and then they'll start throwing him away, away, away, and get him to swing and miss or fly out to left."

Granderson's home runs are mostly clustered in right field. However, few of them were cheap. The overlay charts, while not a perfect tool, show the vast majority going out at Citi Field. He should certainly try to adapt to hit more line drives, because the gaps at Citi Field will give him a lot of doubles and triples, but he's done that in the past and he's clearly a smart and capable enough hitter to make adjustments based on his park.

Regardless, the Bay comparisons are really misplaced because a decline of that extreme magnitude is rare enough to make Bay a statistical outlier; and -- by definition -- outliers make for really bad predictions. The best evidence we have is Granderson himself -- a hard-swinger who will strike out a lot, but who has the strength to hit the ball a far distance. Age and a change in park will inevitably keep him from being the 40+ home run hitter he used to be, but if the Mets want power he'll give it to them.

Tags: matthewcerrone, avsny, MetsBlog , Matthew Cerrone
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