FanGraphs projects the Mets to win roughly 84 games this season and has them as the second Wild Card in the National League, with a slight edge over the Giants.
In their projected standings/playoff probabilities, FanGraphs gives the Mets a 42.4 percent chance of reaching the postseason (including a 17.7 percent chance of winning the NL East).
The division winners in the National League are projected to be the Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers, with the Cardinals and Mets earning the Wild Card spots.
Meanwhile, FanGraphs gives the Mets a 1.5 percent chance to win the World Series -- the ninth-best odds in baseball. By comparison, the Nationals are given a 7.6 percent chance to win the World Series.
Danny Abriano, SNY.tv | Twitter |
FanGraphs projects the Mets to win 84 games, but they should exceed that number if they stay relatively healthy. And if health is there, the division should be in reach.
People focus so much on the uncertainty surrounding the back-end of the starting rotation (and there are lots of questions), that it seems not much is being made of the fact that the Mets' 1-2 of Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard stacks up with any top of the rotation in baseball. And with Jason Vargas bolstering the middle of the rotation, the Mets don't have to hope that all of their starting pitchers who were injured last season stay healthy and find their form -- only that one or two of them do.
And if the above happens, the Mets -- with a revamped bullpen that should feaure a healthy Jeurys Familia, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, and free agent Anthony Swarzak -- should have one of the best overall pitching staffs in baseball.
Remember, the issue for the Mets last season wasn't their offense -- and it should be even better this season. They were middle-of-the-pack in runs scored and hit the eighth-most home runs in 2017, even though they traded the majority of their impact hitters over the summer.
Then there's the infield defense, which was pitiful at times last season but should be much-improved. Todd Frazier (who was one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball last season) and Amed Rosario will be manning the left side of the infield.
The Mets, with most of the same group as this year, won 90 games in 2015 while winning the NL East and reaching the World Series. They persevered through injuries to win 87 games in 2016 and reach the Wild Card game, before being decimated by injuries last season. The small amount of respect they've getting as a postseason contender this season is to be expected, but that doesn't mean it's right.
If they remain relatively healthy, the expectation is that this team should reach the postseason -- whether it's via the division title or one of the wild cards. And if they do, they should have as good a chance as any to take home the ultimate prize -- finishing the unfinished business that began in 2015.