Yoenis Cespedes did not take a discount when choosing $75 million from the Mets over $110 million from the Nationals, according to Brian Mangan >> Read more at the Read Zone.
According to multiple reports, Cespedes, 30, can opt out of his contract after next season, pocket $27 million from the Mets, and return to the free agent market. Or, he can stay with the Mets and earn another $48 million through 2018.
"In just about every other scenario, Cespedes does much better than if he had accepted a five year contract with the Nationals for only $110 million (with money deferred)," Mangan explains. "If he's still a good player at age 33, he may lock in one more big pay day. ... Or, most likely, Cespedes will opt-out after just one season with the Mets and receive his huge payday next offseason. You can weight those outcomes any way you like, and in just about every scenario, the Mets offer to Cespedes was objectively the best one."
In either case, Cespedes's agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, said Wednesday that Cespedes hopes to have a long-term relationship with the Mets.
"Yoenis sees this as an opportunity," Van Wagenen explained. "He hopes that it'll be a bridge to a longer-term contract in the future. He has an eye toward what this relationship could become on the heels of the relationship that we've already shared."
I take this statement from Van Wagenen to mean that in a year he will approach Sandy Alderson about swapping the opt-out clause for a guarenteed contract extension to go beyond another two years, much like the Yankees did with Alex Rodriguez a few years ago. However, if Alderson wanted no part of Cespedes at age 34 this winter, I can't see him wanting part of him at age 34 next winter.
The point is, he's almost certainly going to opt out and become a free agent again in a year.
Next offseason, I bet he'll have the White Sox, Dodgers, Angels, and others, maybe even the Yankees, all motivated with money to spend in the market for a corner outfielder, which was not the case this winter. Assuming he has a good season, he'd be nuts to not want to hear from these teams. Frankly, he'll probably want to hear from them even if he has a terrible season.
The way I see it, there's a very good chance one of the above teams end up giving him a four- or five-year deal. In that case, if you count his $27 million from the Mets in 2016, he'll end up earning around $130 million for six seasons between 2016 and 2021, which is almost the exact deal he was trying to sign in the first place. My hunch is he and Van Wagenen know this, they're confident in what the market can bear next winter, and that is why they pushed for the opt-out -- and it's why I bet they intend to use it, either to get a contract extension from the Mets or a better deal from someone else.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | About Me) started MetsBlog.com as a project in college, generated 300,000,000 page views and 30,000 posts in 10 years, partnered with SNY and turned his hobby into a career. In 2011, SNY hired him to be Executive Editor and Dir. of Digital Content for their network of team sites, video content and podcasts.