Regarding your entry on the unprotected Mets for the Rule 5 draft, I noticed you didn't say anything about Mark Cohoon. According to the link you provided, he is unprotected. I know he had a rough season in AAA, but what are the odds he gets picked? If nothing else, he could be a LOOGY for a major league club.
You also had him ranked #16 on your top 41 prospects list. How far has he fallen in your mind?
I'll answer the last question first. I don't know how far Cohoon has fallen, but it could be off the list entirely. I expect to sit down and do the first draft of my Top 41 shortly, perhaps in an airport over Thanksgiving weekend.
I would put the odds that Cohoon gets picked in this winter's Rule 5 draft as very, very low. The basic numbers here will illustrate why: in AAA this year as a 23-year old, Cohoon ran a 6.11 ERA in 94.1 innings with 51 strikeouts against 38 walks. If you're into ratios, that's 11.4 H/9, 4.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9.
Cohoon doesn't strike me as a particularly strong LOOGY candidate. Usually, LOOGYs have a breaking pitch or delivery that is particularly difficult against lefthanders. Cohoon's delivery is straightforward, and at least in Savannah, his best weapons were his control, followed by his changeup and cutter. Actually, in Savannah, he ran reverse platoon splits, where he was more effective against righties than lefties.
This has reversed in the upper minors. To ensure we were dealing with the largest possible samples, I combined Cohoon's work at double-A in 2010 and 2011 and in AAA in 2011 in the table below.
In the SAL in 2010
In AA and AAA
|Totals vs. Left||192||52||9||0||4||18||36||.271||.364||.380||5.7||15.8||7.9||1.8|
|Totals vs. Right||662||201||51||4||19||52||115||.304||.356||.479||10.0||15.6||7.0||2.6|
Note that upper-level righties have really hit Cohoon hard - a .479 slugging and 10% extra-base hit rate - are no joke. However, that doesn't mean he's cut out for LOOGY-ing. His underlying walk and strikeout rates are very similar against lefties and righties. Also, lefties have run a .364 OBP against him, buttressed in part by 12 HBP at double-A and triple-A.