OverallThe Mets at 26-18 are tied for first place with the Fort Myers Miracle. After a crazy hot start (19-5 in April) the Mets have lost six of their last seven games and are just 7-13 in May.
The true strength of the team has been the offense. The Mets lead the FSL in batting average (.280) and are second in runs scored (221), slugging (.409) and are sixth in OBP (.333).
Angel Pagan is rehabbing in St. Lucie at the moment, but lets focus on the prospects here.
So, Matt Harvey, what's up? Mets fans were ready to jump Matt Harvey to AA, to AAA, to the big leagues, to the All-Star game after his first four starts. Then the season season happened.
|1st 4 starts||0.00||22||14||1||0||0||0||8||27||.184||.286||3.4||32%||10%|
The FSL is hitting a hundred points higher against him in his last five starts. Some of that is explained by a rise in BABIP. However, be careful using BABIP in a minor league context. Some pitchers are better than others at preventing hits - they're called big leaguers. A rise in BABIP in the minors can be a reflection of bad luck, but it can also indicate more hard contact against a pitcher.
I want to go to AA, but am I ready? by Matt den Dekker and Pedro ZapataMatt den Dekker: .316/.353/.514. He leads the FSL in triples (7), is second in hits (56), and doubles (15), fourth in extra-base hits (24) and fifth in total bases (91).
However, after a scorching finish to April, den Dekker has slowed down in May as the chart below makes plain.
Pedro Zapata is hitting .351/.393/.439, fifth in the FSL in batting average. He's 11 for 13 stealing bases. He's mostly played LF in deference to den Dekker, but has the speed and agility to play center. He doesn't have much in the way of the crucial secondary skills, with just six extra-base hits and five walks in 34 games, but he's making lots of contact with a K/rate of 15%. At 23, the bet here is that he plays at least the second half of the season at AA.
The Underage InfieldersWilmer Flores, at age 19 is hitting .271/.302/.373 after 43 games. He's at .214/.239/.333 in19 May games and stopped walking (2 walks). It's not like he's striking out, he's fanning in just 13% of his plate appearances, but he's not doing very much when he makes contact.
A month shy of his 20th birthday, Jefry Marte is sitting at .286/.363/.441. He's slowed down in May (.247/.326/.351) after a hot April (.321/.396/.524) but he's still showing much improved patience as his 18 walks lead the team.
They're teenagers. It's advanced-a. Give 'em time.
Puello's PatienceThis one's pretty simple. Compare April and May.
Sorry, 1:1 is Not Good HereKyle Allen: 35 IP, 19 BB, 21 K
Scott Moviel: 48 IP, 16 BB, 19 K
I was high on both guys at one time, ranking Scott Moviel as my #9 Mets prospect in 2009 and Allen as my #13 prospect in 2010.
In advanced-A, I want to see pitchers strike out a batter an inning with a K/BB ratio of 2.5 or better.
Note: Again, I'm using "BABIP-ish" for Harvey, dropping the SF term from the equation (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF).