The Diamondbacks and Rockies, who are currently leading the NL Wild Card race, are on pace to both win what would be 100 games -- which would be the most ever for a Wild Card team. This is why, despite winning six of their last 10 games, the Mets still lost ground in their pursuit of a third-straight postseason appearance.
To end this season with 100 wins, the Mets would need to go 69-25 the rest of the year, which is a .734 winning percentage. The Mets never played better than .650 baseball (during a 30-day stretch) when hot at the end of each of the last two seasons.
In other words, to reach their third consecutive postseason in 2017, the Mets need to play a lot better than they did down the stretch in 2015 and 2016, plus do it with fewer healthy players and for a longer stretch of time.
The point is (and this goes for the Cubs, Pirates, Braves, and Cardinals, as well), to make the playoffs, the Mets need to play significantly better than they have, and start doing it immediately, while simultaneously hoping at least one of the D-backs and Rockies return to expectations.
The thing is, even if Arizona and Colorado slip up and play just .500 baseball the rest of the way, they'll still win 90 games based on what they've accomplished to date. And, during the last 10 years, Wild Card teams have won an average of 90 games, with 97 being the most and 87 being the fewest.
Sep 26, 2015; Harvey (right) celebrates with teammates after clinching the NL East. Credit: Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Frankly, at this point, to simply get back to last year's 87 wins, the Mets would still need to go 56-38. This feels more realistic, but is still no easy feat, because it will mean reeling off at least one massive, double-digit winning streak or winning every one of their remaining 31 series.
Speaking of upcoming series, and essentially needing to win them all, the Mets begin a four-game series in Los Angeles tonight when they face Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Following their set in LA, the Mets play four of their next five series on the road as they'll travel to San Francisco, Miami, Washington, D.C., and St. Louis.
"We're all still here, we're all in this together," Terry Collins insisted this past weekend as his team lost three of four games to the NL East-leading Nationals at Citi Field. "We have to keep playing, keep grinding it out. ... The only people that think the sky is falling here are the media."
Thanks to all the reality stated above, FanGraphs.com has the odds of the Mets winning a Wild Card berth now down to seven percent. And the odds of them getting to the NLCS, let alone the World Series, are down to less than five percent.
I love miracles and always believe in the impossible when it comes to the Mets. However, though I don't believe the sky is falling just yet, it's impossible to deny that the ground is definitely shaking.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is the host of SNY's MetsBlog Q&ACast and the lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!