Detroit Tigers at New York Mets
Moneyline: DET +230/NYM -270
Series: DET +260/NYM -320
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable pitchers: Gregory Soto (0-2, 10.80 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.50 ERA)
Just when it seemed like the Mets' season was slipping away and their manager on the brink, all appears to be well again after claiming a four-game sweep of the rival Washington Nationals at Citi Field.
And that should be noted as the suddenly streaking Amazins remain at home entering the next series, where they'll host the reeling Tigers in a rare interleague matchup. It's your prototypical scenario of two teams headed in opposite directions.
With that in mind, it's important not to overthink from a betting perspective, especially with the Mets vying to get back to the .500-mark if they are victorious on Friday. That effort will come behind Syndergaard, who might be the best man for the job at the moment.
Despite taking the loss in the final game of the club's rock-bottom series in Miami, the 6-foot-6 right-hander was actually really good again, yielding just two runs in seven sharp innings. It was the second straight start Syndergaard went at least seven strong, as he also allowed a pair of runs in eight innings in his previous turn.
So, how can you not ride a hot Thor when he's clearly trending back in the right direction? He looks to be in form, which can only be trouble for a Detroit team that has dropped nine of its last 10, with the other game suspended and still needing to be finished. During those losses, they've totaled only 21 runs -- or 2.3 runs per game. Owners of the American League's worst team OPS (.635) opposite right-handed pitching, the Tigers won't manage much against Syndergaard.
Not only that, Detroit is going with a struggling rookie as its starting pitcher for this series opener. That would be Soto, the 24-year-old southpaw making his fourth career start.
Considering how Soto didn't really show any promise in the first three, this is definitely the Mets' game to win. New York also ranks in the top-5 in the National League in team batting average (.258) and on-base percentage (.338) with a left-hander on the hill, presenting a difficult matchup for Soto.
How I Would Bet This Game
While it probably won't matter, the smarter strategy is probably to bet the Mets on the run-line, meaning they have to win by more than 1.5 runs. That wager carries much friendlier odds (-130) than simply wagering on the Mets straight-up (-270). Again, though, that probably shouldn't come into play, as Thor should win decisively.
Should You Bet The Series?
As we learned last weekend, it can be dangerous taking a big favorite in a series bet, which is what the Mets were before being defeated in all three games by the lowly Marlins. This series has New York favored a little less but since you won't have the benefit of being able to lean on Jacob deGrom, the -320 odds just aren't worth it.