Part 5 on players ranked 16-20 is here. Part 4 on players ranked 21-25 is here. Part 3 on players ranked 26-30 is here. Part 2 on players originally ranked 31-36 is here. Part 1 on players originally ranked 36-41 is here. Each player’s name links back to his original scouting report from before the 2011 season.
#11 – Dillon GeeWhat I thought: Actually, Dr. Pangloss, my optimistic friend said, “Gee won’t be any kind of star, but could well stick as a competent (and cheap) fourth or fifth starter.”
Reality: And by some measures, Gee has been even better than that. Gee is third on the Mets’ pitching staff in WAR (1.0), trailing only Jon Niese (2.1) and Chris Capuano (1.0) and Capuano by fractions of a win. Gee appears due for some regression as his .247 BABIP looks unsustainable. Still, with an ERA of 3.76 and an xFIP of 4.19, he should be able to manage that slide. His xFIP is fourth among the starters, behind Niese (3.32), Capuano (3.72) and R.A. Dickey (3.88).
Stock: UP. He’s a big league starter and potentially a back-end guy on a playoff team.
#12 – CF Darrell CecilianiWhat I thought: The chops to play centerfield combined with some speed and hitting ability made Ceciliani one to watch.
Reality: The BABIP monster can be a merciless foe, huh? His BABIP has dropped from .435 in the New York-Penn League in 2010 to .303 in Savannah, dragging his average down from .351 to .244. Ceciliani, who turned 21 in June has essentially maintained his strikeout rate, while bumping his walk rate, which is nice. Notice that the extra-base hit rate is down against tougher pitchers.
#13 – RF Cory VaughnWhat I thought: Vaughn was described as having nice tools for right field and was coming off a record-setting performance with 14 homers for Brooklyn in 2010.
Reality: The 22-year-old Vaughn does have a big league body, and showed off a nice arm in right, and enough speed for center in a pinch. He had a more advanced approach than I expected, but less power. Historic Grayson Stadium, the Gnats’ home park, robs hitters of homers and extra-base because it’s so big to the gaps. However, I didn’t see a ton of loft in Vaughn’s swing. All the same, he was the most dangerous hitter on a Gnats’ team that won the first half title, so I think at some point, pitchers in the South Atlantic League stopped giving him much to hit.
A combined 19 hit-by-pitches between Savannah and St. Lucie sustain his on-base percentage. That’s fine, drawing HBP is a repeatable skill but it does expose Vaughn to some injury risk down the road.
It turns out Vaughn’s extra-base hit rate is a tick below the average for right fielders who collectively have extra-base hits in 8% of their plate appearances.
Stock: Holding until he shows more power.
#14 – LHP Juan UrbinaWhat I thought: The scouting reports on the projectable lefty with big league bloodlines were nice.
Reality: He’s been hit very hard in five starts as an 18-year old in the Appalachian League. Sure, he’s young, but he’s giving up a ton of hits and walking batters. I read the numbers to suggest that he doesn’t have swing and miss stuff at all. I don’t want to make too much of five starts, but it’s a concerning beginning.
#15 – RHP Pedro BeatoWhat I thought: Beato would fit nicely into the Mets bullpen.
Reality: That happened. His 0.2 WAR is third among Mets relievers behind K-Rod and Bobby Parnell, which is to say, he’s up to #2 now. His 5.31 K/9 is strangely low given his fastball, but it’s worked for Beato.
Stock: Up. He’s a big leaguer now.