The way it stands, the second Wild Card spot in the National League may only require 85 wins this season, given the level of parity across the league.
In the last five years, the average second-best Wild Card record had won at least 88 games. However, this season, more than half of the National League is below .500. Unfortunately, the Mets are among them.
To win 85 games this season, the Mets need to go 56-40, while leaping over six teams.
I'm sorry, but I see no evidence that this current roster is capable of that type of turn around. It would be awesome and truly amazing if they could pull it off. I'd be SO happy to be wrong.
However, I can't see them getting sustained success until they settle in to a consistent lineup, rotation and bullpen, and that can't happen until they acquire better, consistent players. It's typical in baseball to use April and May to rotate players and adjust the roster. This happens for every team. But, by June, most rosters are in place, with July and August used for tweaking.
Unfortunately, the majority of the Mets roster has been in flux since June, 2009, and that is still the case exactly five years later and I fear it will continue to be the case all summer...