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#20 3B Richard Lucas

Why Ranked Here: I liked Lucas’ strength and ability to use the whole field at the plate.  I thought he had a chance to stay at third.

What Happened: The Mets skipped the 21-year old Lucas, coming off a good year in Kingsport, and a so-so few weeks in the NYP, over Savannah (where Jefry Marte was holding down the hot corner) to St. Lucie, where's he's struggled.  He just hasn't made enough contact in the FSL.  However, his ten home runs are good enough for fifth in the League, so he’s hit for some power.  Now, can he make more contact in the second half?

Stock: Down.

GABH2B3BHRBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
10 FSL81282586210229503.206.280.348
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#21 RHP Eduardo Aldama

Why Ranked Here: He's flashed a solid average to plus fastball in the Appalachian League last year and the year before in the GCL.

What Happened: The 20-year old has made four appearances in the GCL.  Perhaps he was injured, I'll have to find out.

Stock: Down.

ERAG/GSIPHRERHRBBSOBB/9SO/9SO/BBHR/9
10 GCL7.204/055540467.210.81.50.0
(Note to self: this was a major over-ranking.)

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#22 RHP Dillon Gee

Why Ranked Here: Coming into the year, he was a command and control RHP with a chance to find a big league roster spot.

What Happened: The 24-year old has been all over the place at AAA this year, mixing five outings with one or zero earned runs allowed with six in which he’s allowed five or more earned runs.  He’s striking out nearly a batter an inning, but he’s allowing over a hit an inning, and 1.5 HR/9 which illustrates how hittable he’s been when he's  in the strike zone.  His changeup is his best off-speed pitch along with a fastball that's mostly upper 80s, below average for a RHP.

Stock: Down.

ERAG/GSIPHRERHRBBSOBB/9SO/9SO/BBHR/9GB%
10 IL4.7718/18103.67106615515261022.38.93.91.342.6
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#23 LHP Robert Carson

Why Ranked Here: I liked that Carson is a big, loose-limbed LHP with a plus fastball.

What Happened: Like the whole St. Lucie rotation, the 21-year old Carson got off to dreadful start.  In April, he owned a 7.07 ERA.  He fought his way through May and June with a K/BB of 1.9 (42/22) and an ERA of 3.94.  In his most recent two starts in July, however, he’s allowed just three earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA with 12 strikeouts against two walks.  Has he turned the corner?  The Mets think so.

Here’s Mets Pitching Coordinator Rick Waits discussing Carson:

He’s a completely different pitcher than when he was here last year.  He’s more powerful and keeping that good fastball into the seventh and eighth innings.  I saw him throw 94 in the eighth inning the other night [editor: 6/28].  His slider is much improved.  He’s starting to understand how important it is to throw the fastball to both sides of the plate.  He has a tendency to want to cut the fastball in [to righties].  … He’s commanding his fastball better to both sides of the plate.
Stock: Holding.  A few more starts like his last two, and it’ll be up and he’ll finish the year in Binghamton.  I’m pretty dogmatic in demanding the following two numberical indicators from prospects in advanced-A:   a K/9 of 9 and a K/BB of at least 2.5.  If Carson can do that for a month, I’ll believe.

ERAG/GSIPHRERHRBBSOBB/9SO/9SO/BBHR/9GB%
10 FSL4.1717/1686.33984240533693.47.22.10.547.6
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#24 3B Aderlin Rodriguez

Why Ranked Here: He was a big bodied international signee with a big bonus  ($600K) and plus bat speed with serious power potential.

What Happened: Three weeks into the Appy League season and he’s slugging .658 with seven home runs as an 18 year old.    That will play.

Stock: UP.  Way UP.

GABH2B3BHRBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
10 APP20812470761000.296.341.642
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#25 CF Darrell Cecilini

Why Ranked Here: The Mets loved Ceciliani’s plus speed, average or better arm and gap power.

What Happened: He’s had a monster first three weeks for Brooklyn in the New York Penn League at age 19, which is actually a little young for the league.  Early evidence that he’s adapting: he didn’t draw a walk in his first 11 games, but drew seven in his next 12.

Stock: UP.  UP.

GABH2B3BHRBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
10 NYP24933575071483.376.431.559
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#26 2B Alonzo Harris

Why Ranked Here: He showed power and speed from second base last year as a 19-year old in Kingsport. His raw agility gives him above average range at second, but his hands are the weak link in his defensive game.

What Happened: He’s still fast and he still has some pop in his bat, but his .236/.279/.359 line is very disappointing.  He just swings at everything.  The Mets have worked with him on his approach, and now it comes down to Harris putting it into a game, not just some nights, but every at bat, every night.

Stock: Down

GABH2B3BHRBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
10 SAL792876813541567126.237.279.359
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#27 3B Zach Lutz

Why Ranked Here: Lutz hits when he’s healthy, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.

What Happened: Lutz, who turned 24 in June, got off to a great start, hitting .307/.447/.600 in April before slowing down to .196/.317/.353.  He was placed on the AA DL with a left foot fracture on May 25.

Stock: Down.

GABH2B3BHRBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLG
10 AA3512633608243601.262.396.500
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#28 LHP Zach Dotson

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Why Ranked Here: Physical lefties with potentially plus fastballs are valuable.

What Happened: Dotson hurt his elbow last summer, and while he did not have surgery, had to spend the whole winter rehabbing and missed all of spring training.  He also missed most of extended spring training, so he’s thrown less than most guys one year out of high school.

His third start was much better than his previous two.

Mets pitching coordinator Rick Waits discussed Dotson last week:

“He’s got a really good arm.  He’s gonna be in the 90s.   He’s got a sharp slider right now, it’s just his delivery isn’t consistent right now.  Right now, he’s just learning how to repeat his delivery.  It’s not a matter of arm strength and it’s not a matter of stuff.”

Stock: Up - he's throwing well and and he's  healthy.

ERAG/GSIPHRERHRBBSOBB/9SO/9SO/BBHR/9GB%
10 GCL3.973/311.33105508116.48.71.40.050.0
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#29 RHP Brant Rustich

Why Ranked Here: I liked that he's a power pitcher with plus fastball ball and a potentially good slider even though he's never stayed healthy.  I thought he might shoot up the ranks if he ever stayed healthy.

What Happened: He’s making progress from the stress fracture in his Humerus that ended his 2009 season.

Stock: Down, pending his return to the hill.

- DNP

Tags: Darrell Ceciliani, Alonzo Harris, Brant Rustich, Zach Dotson, Zach Lutz, Dillon Gee, Eduardo Aldama, Robert Carson, Aderlin Rodriguez , Toby Hyde
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