Danny Abriano, SNY.tv | Twitter |
With Opening Day one week away, things are starting to come into focus for the Mets. Here's how we see things shaking out in our 25-man Roster Prediction 3.0...
Starting Rotation (5)
- Jacob deGrom, RHP
- Noah Syndergaard, RHP
- Zack Wheeler, RHP
- Steven Matz, LHP
- Jason Vargas, LHP
Notable Spring Training Developments: The Mets won't be splitting up the lefties
As was the case when we released our Roster Prediction 2.0, the Mets' starting rotation remains one part of the expected 25-man roster where there are zero questions. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz will all be in the starting rotation if healthy -- we had Wheeler as the No. 4 starter in the first two versions of our predictions, but the Mets have said they're not splitting up the lefties. So Wheeler slides up to No. 3 while Matz slides back to No. 4.
While there has been some consternation about Jason Vargas, he has pitched incredibly well during Spring Training after pitching quite well in the second half of the 2018 season -- and he's earning $8 million this season. He's the No. 5
- Edwin Diaz, RHP
- Jeurys Familia, RHP
- Seth Lugo, RHP
- Robert Gsellman, RHP
- Justin Wilson, LHP
- Luis Avilan, LHP
- Kyle Dowdy, RHP
Notable Spring Training Developments: Drew Smith needed Tommy John surgery, ending his season. Meanwhile, Mickey Callaway has been suggesting the team will carry seven relievers instead of eight.
As noted during our Roster Prediction 1.0 and 2.0, the first five spots in the bullpen were always going to Diaz, Familia, Lugo, Gsellman, and Wilson. But with the team now expected to carry seven relievers instead of eight, it means there are likely only two spots left.
It's been a near-certainty that the Mets would carry at least two left-handers, and Luis Avilan remains a near-lock to be a second lefty. While Dowdy has struggled a bit, he has shown flashes of what made the Mets pick him in the Rule 5 Draft. And if they don't carry him, they lose him. So expect him to be the guy over someone like Tyler Bashlor or Tim Peterson.
Everyday Position Players (8)
- Wilson Ramos, C
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Robinson Cano, 2B
- Amed Rosario, SS
- Jeff McNeil, 3B
- Brandon Nimmo, LF
- Juan Lagares, CF
- Michael Conforto, RF
Notable Spring Training Developments: Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier are still dealing with injuries. And though they have made steps toward returns, there is close to no shot either will be ready for Opening Day. In the first base competition, Pete Alonso has risen above Dominic Smith.
We predicted in our Roster Projection 2.0 that Jeff McNeil would temporarily move from left field to third base if Frazier and Lowrie remained out, and the Mets made that shift soon after.
When it comes to first base, we predicted in our Roster Projection 2.0 that it would be Smith over Alonso simply because of the service time issue. But Alonso has been so ridiculously good this season and Brodie Van Wagenen has been so adamant about roster manipulation not playing a factor that it's impossible to see him not being on the roster.
- Keon Broxton, OF
- Travis d'Arnaud, C
- Dominic Smith, 1B/LF
- J.D. Davis, 1B/3B/OF
- Adeiny Hechavarria, SS/3B/2B
Notable Spring Training Developments: Injuries to expected everyday players have shaken things up, the catching situation has gotten very interesting, and the team is now expected to carry five bench players instead of four.
The big changes here are the additions of Smith and d'Arnaud and the removal of Devin Mesoraco.
Callaway suggested Wednesday that the team was strongly considering carrying both Alonso and Smith, and for the short-term it makes sense. When Frazier and/or Lowrie are back, a roster crunch could squeeze Smith out.
The catching situation is much more complicated, with Ramos a lock and three other players (d'Arnaud, Mesoraco, and Tomas Nido), battling for the backup job.
Van Wagenen is on the record saying that if d'Arnaud is ready and healthy that he'll be on the team. Meanwhile, an upward mobility clause in Mesoraco's contract meant the team had until Wednesday to inform him he was on the 25-man roster. If they didn't, Mesoraco was free to use the clause, which gives him 72 hours to find another team to add him to their roster. If another team wants to add him, though, the Mets can counter and add him back. Got all that?
The easiest move here is to simply plan to carry d'Arnaud. If Mesoraco finds another team to take him, the Mets can re-assess. If he doesn't find another team, they can simply send him to Triple-A Syracuse.