People that talk with and cover the Mets all say there is a zero percent chance the team deals Jacob deGrom. It's talk radio hosts and people outside New York that keep perpetuating the trade rumor.
In the end, while I firmly believe Sandy Alderson will listen to any trade offer for deGrom, I just don't think the deal exists that the Mets would sign off on.
According to insiders familiar with the trade market, there are only four contending teams capable of putting together a fair trade for deGrom, and three of them -- the Phillies, Yankees, and Braves - are considered to be among their top rivals. The other team is the Dodgers.
SNY's Andy Martino has argued in favor of giving deGrom a five-year, $90 million contract extension that begins next season and runs through 2023.
According to two NL executives, two player agents, and one national reporter, deGrom would be just in asking for a seven year, $180 million deal if he were to hit the open market this offseason.
Unfortunately for deGrom, he will likely ean just $20-30 million between now and 2020, only after which he can become a free agent
The point is, given how he's pitching, plus his experience, he's an enormous bargain for any team, including the Mets, who will probably think they can contend the next two years.
Therefore, to deal deGrom today, the Mets would have to get back two elite prospects, both of whom should be among the league's best 50 or already performing in the big leagues, plus also get back one or two other high-ceiling kids as well...
Otherwise, if they're not getting a team to overpay, experts I've talked with all think the Mets should either trade him this winter, keep him through free agency, or sign him to an extension.
In other words, they say it would require Walker Buehler from the Dodgers. The Yankees will lead with Justus Sheffield, but there's no deal unless they also add Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar. The problem for the Mets, though, is while they're right to demand the moon, the Dodgers and Yankees can deal less to instead acquire, say, J.A. Happ or Cole Hamels.
"To deal that caliber player for anything less than extreme value would be foolish. There's no point," a person with a successful, rival team told me this past weekend. "The value of guys like that will never be higher than it is right now. So, as a GM, if you're gonna do it, you do it right now for as many can't-miss guys as you can get. Otherwise, give your man a fair contract extension and treat him like the solution he is."
I left every conversation I had with an insider being told the same thing, which was that the Mets are not in position to gamble with deGrom. He's either their best pitcher when they next win a World Series or he's used to improve a roster that has a better or equally good chance of winning the same World Series. He's either their ace through the foreseeable future or the Mets commit to signing multiple starting pitchers to replace deGrom, who is traded for more than one guy that has an immediate impact.
There can be no in-between. This is not the time to be cute and clever. Because, as everyone told me, it's just too difficult to get back on track when you swing and miss when trading a guy like deGrom...
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is lead writer of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog Podcast, which you can subscribe to here. His new book, The New York Mets Fans' Bucket List, details 44 things every Mets fan should experience during their lifetime. To check it out, click here!