"If you want to have a fun bet with your buddy at the bar, bet him that you?ll take Eli Manning, and he can pick three other starting quarterbacks, anyone he wants,?who he predicts will have a better interception percentage than Eli in 2011. All three must beat Eli for him to win. It?s not a fair bet, because of the randomness of interceptions, but I suspect he?ll jump at the chance to go with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan against your mistake-prone choice.
Sure, he might time the market right and correctly foresee the right quarterbacks, but if he had picked the three best from the previous year at avoiding interceptions, he would have lost the bet every year for the last decade.? Heck, he?would have lost if he only had to pick two and took the top two at avoiding interceptions the?year before. Interceptions from year to year are really random."