As October begins and the Wild Card series rolls on, the Mets are at home. And while there are multiple reasons why the Mets are at home, the biggest one is not hard to figure out.
The Mets' starting rotation, a pillar of strength in 2019 when they were almost impossibly healthy, fell to pieces in 2020 due in part to the loss of Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery before the season and the opt-out of Marcus Stroman (citing coronavirus concerns) right before he was set to make his season debut.
While the Mets lost their projected No. 2 and No. 3 starters, they would've arguably been able to withstand that massive hit if they had the necessary depth. They did not.
New York also might have been able to weather the storm had Steven Matz been in 2020 the reliable starter he was during four of the first five seasons of his career. Instead, he melted down and became virtually unusable.
The losses of Syndergaard and Stroman and the failure of Matz meant that the Mets had to rely heavily on both Rick Porcello (5.64 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) and Michael Wacha (6.62 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), shift Seth Lugo from the bullpen to the rotation (where he had a 6.15 ERA and 1.51 WHIP), and sprinkle in starts by the not so Fab Four of Robert Gsellman, Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, and Ariel Jurado.
Heading into the 2021 season, the Mets have a ton of work to do when it comes to fixing the broken starting rotation, and there doesn't seem to be much (if any) immediate help coming from within the organization.
What the Mets have going for them heading into 2021
The Mets have the best pitcher in baseball, which is a nice start. Beyond Jacob deGrom, they should be able to rely on David Peterson as a back of the rotation piece.
After that, there's not much.
They could start Lugo, but are probably better off using him in relief. And even if they do start Lugo, he'll be a "What If" (just like Porcello and Wacha were in 2020).
Also in the "What If" category is Matz, whose disastrous performance in 2020 puts him closer to non-tender territory than reliable starter territory.
The big wild card here is Syndergaard, who could potentially return as early as April if his Tommy John surgery rehab is incredibly fast. Or he could return closer to the All-Star break or not at all. It simply depends on how his body reacts.
Looking at the farm system, the Mets have Franklyn Kilome (who was very uneven in 2020) and potentially Thomas Szapucki at some point soon. Szapucki, however, has not yet made his big league debut and is still building back arm strength after his own Tommy John surgery.
Translation? The Mets need a lot of immediate help from outside the organization when it comes to filling the starting five and adding necessary depth.