James McCann is not quite J.T. Realmuto, but here's why Mets are right to choose him

When the offseason began a few months ago, the thought from many was that the Mets and J.T. Realmuto were a perfect fit for each other.

I wrote on Oct. 8 that the Mets should sign Realmuto, adding that he could fix what has been ailing New York at catcher. Soon after, there were reports that Realmuto was seeking $200 million and that he was "not keen" on playing in New York. 

Regardless of the above, Realmuto -- clearly the best catcher in baseball -- will provide a huge jolt wherever he lands. He is a plus offensively and defensively and has tremendous athleticism. But the Mets appear to be going with James McCann instead, with the two parties finalizing a four-year, $40 million deal.

Here's why...

When it comes to catchers who are 30 or older, there is always a risk that they could fall off a cliff rather quickly. It started happening to Gary Carter in his age-32 season, to Buster Posey in his age-31 season, and to Joe Mauer in his age-31 season.

Realmuto could possibly excel behind the plate for another half decade and he is also athletic enough to move off the position if needed. But what if he falls off the cliff sooner rather than later? 

The risk of handing out not only a lengthy deal to an older catcher but one that exceeds $100 million (and perhaps even $125 million) is immense. And with the Mets having so many other needs to fill this offseason (more on that below), the risk of inking Realmuto to a megadeal is arguably too high.

If McCann were to fall off, his reported four-year, $40 million contract would be much easier to deal with/absorb than the one Realmuto gets due to the much lower average annual value.

We noted this above, and we'll do it here again so this doesn't get twisted: J.T. Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball. James McCann is not Realmuto, nor are their career comparisons particularly close.

But...

McCann has been trending up over the last two seasons, and the advanced stats show that the results are not a fluke. McCann has turned himself into a legitimate above average catcher.

In 149 games spanning 2019 and 2020, McCann has slashed .276/.334/.474 with 25 HR in 149 games. His exit velocity was 90.2 in 2019 and 90.5 in 2020. His hard hit rate was also up in 2020, to 47.8 (it was 44.2 in 2019). His xSLG in 2020 was .455.

The above numbers, albeit in a small sample, compare favorably to what Realmuto has done in the same time frame.

In 192 games spanning 2019 and 2020, Realmuto has slashed .273/.333/.492 with 36 HR in 192 games. His exit velocity was 90.3 in 2019 and 90.2 in 2020. His hard hit rate in 2020 was 42.4, up slightly from 41.1 in 2019. His xSLG in 2020 was .499.

Again, Realmuto's full career resume is much more impressive than McCann's and he's been the better power hitter over the last two seasons. But these numbers are close enough to see immense value in choosing McCann over Realmuto when taking into account the huge difference between the contract McCann is likely to get and the one Realmuto will ink.

Flipping to defense, one key metric where Realmuto has McCann beaten by a wide margin is pop time (the time from the moment a pitch hits the mitt to the moment the ball reaches the fielder on stolen base attempts). Realmuto routinely leads the league while McCann has been a bit below the league average.

Only a sliver of catching revolves around throwing out runners, though.

Overall defensively, McCann has been a plus, worth 4 DRS in 106 games in 2019 and 5 DRS in 30 games in 2020. When it comes to pitch framing, he was in the 88th percentile this past season.

Realmuto was worth 12 DRS in 133 games in 2019 and -1 DRS in 36 games in 2020. He was in the 95th percentile in 2020 in terms of pitch framing.

The ripple effects of the Mets signing McCann over Realmuto will also be felt up and down the roster this offseason and beyond, since it would allow the Mets to spread their money around in a potentially more advantageous way.

Could the Mets have signed Realmuto and George Springer this offseason? Yes. Was it likely? Perhaps not. And Springer is arguably the better fit for the Mets than Realmuto.

Steve Cohen has talked about not wanting to spend like a "drunken sailor," and handing out megadeals to both Realmuto and Springer would qualify as doing so. It would also clog their payroll with two enormous contracts (including a very risky one to Realmuto) at a time when Jacob deGrom's megadeal is on the books and the team should be looking to extend both Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergaard.

In a world where the Mets' scenarios are signing Realmuto and Jackie Bradley Jr. or McCann and George Springer, it's very hard to argue against the latter.

With the Mets finalizing a deal with McCann and continuing their heavy pursuit of Springer, that scenario is that much closer to becoming reality.